451–460 of 1001 posts
* Intel, AMD, etc. could start making competitive GPUs that push the price down
* A new ASIC chip specifically designed for LLMs
* A new training or LLM runtime algorithm that uses the CPU
* Quantum chip that can train or run a LLM
If Nvidia lost its AI dominance, where would its stock be?
This is really dumb. Deepseek showing that you can do pure online RL for LLMs means we now have a clear path to just keep throwing more compute at the problem! If anything we made the whole "we are hitting a data wall" problem even smaller. Additionally, its yet another proof point that scaling inference compute is a way forward. Models that think for hours or days are the future. As we move further into the regime o…
Nvidia chip demand should increase from DeepSeek's release. This market doesn't make any sense.
IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
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Has anyone verified DeepSeek's claims about R1? They have literally published one single paper and it has been out for a week. Nothing about what they did changed Nvidia's fundamentals. In fact there was no additional news over the weekend or today morning. The entire market movement is because of a single statement by DeepSeek's CEO from over a week ago. People sold because other people sold. This is exactly how a p…
The weights are public. We can't verify their claims about the amount of compute used for training, but we can trivially verify the claims about inference cost and benchmark performance. On both those counts, DeepSeek have been entirely honest.
Inference cost - DeepSeek is charging less than OpenAI to use its public API, but that isn't an indicator of anything since it doesn't reflect the actual cost of operation. It's pretty much a guarantee that both companies are losing money. Looking at DeepSeek's published models the inference cost is in the same ballpark as Llama and the rest.
Which leaves training, and that's what all the speculation is about. The CEO said that the model cost $5.5M and that's what the entire world is clinging on. We have literally no other info and no way to verify it (for now, until efforts to replicate it start to show results).
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Or you could argue you can now do 45x greater things with the same hardware. You can take an optimistic stance on this.
For the overall economy, sure... for Nvidia, no A huge increase in fuel efficiency is great for the economy, horrible for fuel companies
IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
NVDA Net income, Quarter ending in ~Oct2024: $19B. AMD? $771M. INTC? -$16.6B. QCOM? $3B. AAPL? $14B.
Revenue growth, YoY? +93%. AMD? +17%. INTC? -6%. QCOM? +18%. AAPL? +6%.
Margin? 55%. AMD? 11%. INTC? -125%. QCOM? 28%. AAPL? 15%.
P/E Ratio? 46. AMD? 103. INTC? N/A, unprofitable. QCOM? 19. AAPL? 34. NFLX? 54. GME? 151.
Their P/E Ratio doesn't even classify them as all that overvalued. Think about that. Price to earnings, they are cheaper than Netflix, Gamestop, they're about the same level as WALMART, you know, that Retailer everyone hates that has practically no AI play, yeah their P/E is 40.
Nvidia is an insane company. Insane. We've had three of the largest country-economies on the planet announce public/private funding to the tune of 12 figures, maybe totaling 13 figures when its all said and done, and NVDA is the ONLY company on the PLANET that sells what they want to buy. There is no second player. Oh yeah, Google will rent you some TPUs, haha yeah sure bud. China wants to build AI data centers, and their top tech firms are going to the black market smuggling GPUs across the ocean like bricks of cocaine rather than rely on domestic manufacturers, because not even other AMERICAN manufacturers can catch up.
Sure, a 10x drop in cost of intelligence is initially perceived as a hit to the company. But, here's the funny thing about, let's say, CPUs: The Intel Northwood Pentium 4 was released in 2001; with its 130nm process architecture, it sipped a cool 61 watts of power. With today's 3nm process architecture, we've built (drumroll please) the Intel Core Ultra 5 255, which consumes 65 watts of power. Sad trombone? Of course not; its a billion times more performant. We could have directed improvements in process architecture toward reducing power draw (and certainly, we did, for some kinds of chips). But, the VAST, VAST, VAST majority of allocation of these process improvements was in performance.
The story here is not "intelligence is 10x cheaper, so we'll need 10x fewer GPUs". The story is: "Intelligence is 10x cheaper, people are going to want 10x more intelligence."
NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…
Yeah but NVIDIA's amazing digging technique that could only be accomplished with NVIDIA shovels is now irrelevant. Meaning there are more people selling shovels for the gold rush
NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…
Yeah but NVIDIA's amazing digging technique that could only be accomplished with NVIDIA shovels is now irrelevant. Meaning there are more people selling shovels for the gold rush
IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
I think less of that and more of real risks - Nvidia legitimately has the earnings right now. The question is how sustainable that is, when most of it is coming from 5 or so customers that are both motivated and capable of taking back those 90% margins for themselves
They are getting a lot of money, but their stock price is in a completely different universe. Not even that $500G deal people announced, if spent exclusively on their products could justify their current price. (Nah, notice that just the change on their valuation is already larger than that deal.)