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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

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Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#451

Post by rsynnott »

mulmen wrote: post #444
rsynnott wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last mile is a nightmare with all public transit. In rural areas, sure. In urban and dense suburban areas, in most developed countries there's probably a bus stop within easy walking distance.

Yes, the last mile is walked. That’s the problem. It’s not practical to put a train station or bus stop at every corner. This is why cars exist everywhere. If those cars can be automated they can be shared even more efficiently than Ubers and allow more efficient bus and train routes.

> It’s not practical to put a train station or bus stop at every corner.

Tell that to Dublin Bus. Some routes are more or less unusable due to ridiculously high numbers of stops; there’s one in particular near me which has 37 stops over about 4km.

There are large parts of the suburbs here where you’re never more than a couple hundred meters from a bus stop. The last mile is, for much of the city, just not a problem, though when taken to extremes it does make the routes very slow.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#452

Post by zahlman »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #422
zahlman wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>OP argued we should devote self-driving resources to public transit. Yes, because it would allow moving people more cost-effectively (among other things) - which is measured per person per unit distance traveled. (I'm not OP, but nothing in this discussion is even remotely new for transit advocates like myself.)

> because it would allow moving people more cost-effectively (among other things) Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan. Not all miles travelled are equal. In value, urgency or desirability and thus price willing to be paid. Complaining about self driving cars is asinine. The scales are wrong. The problems are wrong. The places…

>Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan.

Last I checked, Waymo also operates exclusively in urban areas.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#453

Post by zahlman »

achatham wrote: post #424
zahlman wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. Bakersfield to Merced is 171 miles of intercity high-speed rail. It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". 22 years ago in Toronto, the Sheppard line (3.4 mi, underground) was built for less…

But the Bakersfield/Merced HSR line is an actual project, estimated at over $30B (it makes no sense independently but is part of LA-to-SF). You seem to be comparing an actual, private tech project to what you wished public transit looked like, not what it actually looks like. Public transit is awesome, but construction costs in the anglophone world are bananas ( https://transitcosts.com/ ).

The Sheppard line is real. It was constructed about 20 years ago. I have used it.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#454

Post by zahlman »

mulmen wrote: post #436
zahlman wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. Bakersfield to Merced is 171 miles of intercity high-speed rail. It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". 22 years ago in Toronto, the Sheppard line (3.4 mi, underground) was built for less…

> It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, Because they’re both between Los Angeles and San Francisco. > and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". If not trains between cities what do you consider public transit?

>Because they’re both between Los Angeles and San Francisco.

This explains exactly nothing to me. There are many cities between Toronto and Montreal (the two largest CMAs in Canada, and about 88% of that driving distance) and I can't imagine why anyone would regularly travel between those two, either. Nor can I imagine why someone would make regular trips between Belleville and Ottawa (very close to the Bakersfield-Merced distance, and two of the larger cities in between).

>If not trains between cities what do you consider public transit?

Subways, light rail, streetcars and buses, all operating within a city. And, yes, trains operating within a CMA. (GO Transit trains from Toronto can get you as far as Kitchener, but as far as I know it's a vastly less popular route than the main Lakeshore lines. From Hamilton to Oshawa is definitely not solid built-up area, but it's pretty dense.)

I can't understand why this would be non-obvious. Maybe there's a cultural difference. Are Americans really so dedicated to urban sprawl that residents of a metropolis with an 7- or even 8-digit population might still require regular intercity travel to go about their lives?

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#455

Post by returningfory2 »

acchow wrote: post #352
returningfory2 wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - You ll have to dispute a dead family member against a faceless company that conveniently deleted crucial logs. On the contrary, of all my negative experiences biking in NYC over 10 years, the _only_ time I was able to hold a driver accountable was when they were riding a Revel scooter in which case the "faceless company" took them off their platform. This comment seems to significantly overestimate how easy it to…

Drivers don’t get held accountable in America. You can actually kill someone without any significant consequences, as long as you do it while driving https://sfist.com/2024/04/18/71-year-old-driver-skates-with-...

Yep, fully agree.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#456

Post by zahlman »

mulmen wrote: post #410
zahlman wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The grocery store is 1.3 miles from here but it’s a 300’ climb and it’s 42f and raining right now. I would get a jacket and umbrella and walk this without giving it a second thought.

That’s 1.5 hours round trip by foot and 15 minutes by car/e-bike. And I have to carry my groceries so I’m limited on how much I can buy. If there was a robobus I would absolutely take that option.

I routinely walk considerably further than that for groceries, in less time. On a route including a steep hill.

Short trips made any way but walking have considerable overhead. Bad urban planning makes it worse. How many times do you have to stop a car on that route?

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#457

Post by zahlman »

kasey_junk wrote: post #412
zahlman wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. Bakersfield to Merced is 171 miles of intercity high-speed rail. It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". 22 years ago in Toronto, the Sheppard line (3.4 mi, underground) was built for less…

Chicago is extending an existing above ground train line along an existing freeway (no right of way issues, not a subway, etc) 5.6 miles. It’s four stops and a new rail yard. 3.6B. https://www.transitchicago.com/ctas-36-billion-red-line-exte... It may be an American problem but it’s certainly not just NYC. But of course most of Waymos market is American as well.

Something may have changed more recently. The first stage of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT line in Toronto looks like it will come in at around (converting currency and distances) 9B for 12 miles. Locals generally don't seem to think this represents a success. (Despite being light rail, about 2/3 of this first stage will run underground.)

(The REM in Montreal - https://www.cdpqinfra.com/en/projects/rem - is doing much better than that, despite going over budget and being delayed quite a bit.)

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#458

Post by [deleted] »

leobg wrote: post #448
Arnt wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did he see it turn without signals?

Not explicitly, I think. But if it uses the turn signals without turning, I wouldn’t feel to confident that an actual turn would be preceded by a signal, much less one with enough time for me to react (“I will turn” vs “I am turning now”).

[deleted]

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#459

Post by mulmen »

zahlman wrote: post #456
mulmen wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s 1.5 hours round trip by foot and 15 minutes by car/e-bike. And I have to carry my groceries so I’m limited on how much I can buy. If there was a robobus I would absolutely take that option.

I routinely walk considerably further than that for groceries, in less time. On a route including a steep hill. Short trips made any way but walking have considerable overhead. Bad urban planning makes it worse. How many times do you have to stop a car on that route?

> I routinely walk considerably further than that for groceries, in less time. On a route including a steep hill.

Not everyone has or wants to spend that kind of time. Especially when it’s not necessary and the weather is bad.

I’m hosting a party this evening so I need to run up there and get snacks and beer. The hour of time the e-bike saves lets me do that between work and guests arriving. I don’t have time to walk that distance and still eat dinner.

> Short trips made any way but walking have considerable overhead. Bad urban planning makes it worse. How many times do you have to stop a car on that route?

I don’t own a car. I ride my e-bike. There’s two lights and a stop sign on that route. It has a bike lane which is nice. Takes 10 minutes including time to put on my helmet and gloves and lock/unlock the bike.

If we both left my couch at the same time I’d be home on my bike before you even arrived at the store on foot.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#460

Post by Mawr »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #439
rglullis wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Waymo/Google/Alphabet really cares about people's safety and this is nothing but a pet project where the amount raised ($11bn) in 15 years is ~3% of their whole revenue in 2023, they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures. Until then, the whole thing is nothing but a Trojan horse to let encroach themselves even more into another aspect of our lives. Also: > world’s…

> they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures You seem to just not like that this is done by Google. (Or by any private entity.) That is fine. I, like, hate this one restaurant in New York. But be honest about your motivations and check your biases. This isn’t self-driving cars vs public transit debate because there isn’t one. If Google were funding a leg of passenger…

> The world’s largest rail system, period.

I despise this way of arguing. Laying down x length of rail track is not a difficult problem whatsoever. Such a crude metric is entirely insufficient to back up an argument about how great American railways supposedly are.

What's the ticket cost for the passengers compared to other countries? Average train delay? Cancellation rate? Speed? Death rate? The argument is not looking so hot anymore, right? Then stop it with the irrelevant statistics of rail track length.

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