It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word • Hacker News Board

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#451

Post by Zondartul » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 6:59 PM UTC

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #131

lolinder wrote: post #86

To recap OpenAI's decisions over the past year: * They burned up the hype for GPT-5 on 4o and o1, which are great step changes but nothing the competition can't quickly replicate. * They dissolved the safety team. * They switched to for profit and are poised to give Altman equity. * All while hyping AGI more than ever. All of this suggests to me that Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for AGI…

I don't really follow Altman's behavior much, but just in general: > If he sincerely thought AGI was on the horizon he wouldn't be eyeing the exit If such a thing could exist and was right around the corner, why would you need a company for it? Couldn't the AGI manage itself better than you could? Job's done, time to get a different hobby.

If we figure out AGI, that still doesn't mean a singularity. I'm going to speak as though we're on the brink of AI outthinking every human on earth (we are not) but bear with me, I want to make it clear we're not going jobless any time soon.

For starters, we still need the AI (LLMs for now) to be more efficient, i.e. not require a datacenter to train and deploy. Yes, I know there are tiny models you can run on your home pc, but that's comparing a bycicle to a jet.

Second, for an AGI it meaningfully improve itself, it has to be smarter than not just any one person, but the sum total of all people it took to invent it. Until then no single AI can replace our human tech sphere of activity.

As long as there are limits to how smart an AI can get, there are places where humans can contribute economically. If there is ever to be a singularity, it's going to be a slow one, and large human AI vompanies will be part of the process for many decades still.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#452

Post by andrewinardeer » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 6:59 PM UTC

gizmo wrote: post #359

getpost wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know anything, but isn't Sam already rich? And, if OpenAI is in a position to capture profits in an expanding AI industry, isn't this the best possible time to lock-in equity for long term gains and trillionaireship? For many people, sadly, one can never be rich enough. My point is, planning for both short term exit, and long term gains, is essentially the same in this particular situation. What a boon! Nice…

Sam was already a billionaire years ago. He is one of SV most prolific investors, with equity in hundreds of startups. He writes big checks as well from time to time, Helion for instance he gave 375 million.

My understanding is Altman joined the Three Comma Club only this year not years ago.

Yes, he has made lots of investments over the years as head of YC but not every investment was successful. This was discussed on BBC's podcast 'Good Billionaire Bad Billionaire' recently.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#453

Post by wslh » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:01 PM UTC

deepfriedchokes wrote: post #442

wslh wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see it differently. ChatGPT holds a unique position because it has the most important asset in tech: user attention. Building a brand and capturing a significant share of eyeballs is one of the hardest challenges for any company, startup or not. From a business standpoint, the discussion around GPT-5 or AGI seems secondary. What truly matters is the growing number of users paying for ChatGPT, with potential for mon…

The internet has destroyed the value of user attention and brands; everyone has the attention span of a gnat and the loyalty of an addict. They will very quickly move on to the next shiny thing.

My comment doesn't negate your point. I'm emphasizing the business side beyond the moral considerations. If anything, we've seen that brands which contributed to unhealthy habits, like the rise of fast food and sugary drinks, still hold immense value in the market. User loyalty may be fleeting, but businesses can still thrive by leveraging brand strength and market presence, regardless of the moral implications.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#454

Post by richardw » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:03 PM UTC

bad_user wrote: post #433

richardw wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 12 year old that doesn’t sleep, eat, or forget, learns anything within seconds, can replicate and work together with fast as light communication and no data loss when doing so. Arrives out of the womb knowing everything the internet knows. Can work on one problem until it gets it right. Doesn’t get stale or old. Only had emotion if it’s useful. Can do math and simulate. Doesn’t get bored. Can theoretically improve…

A 12 year old that doesn't interact with the world. Many believe that AGI will happen in robots, and not in online services, simply because interacting with the environment might be a prerequisite for developing consciousness. You mentioned boredom, which is interesting, as boredom may also be a trait of intelligence. An interesting question is if it will want to live at all. Humans have all these pleasure sensors an…

I’m not sure, but it’s possible Stephen Hawking would have been fine with becoming digital, assuming he could keep all the traits he valued. He had a pretty low data communication rate, interacted digitally and did more than most humans can. Give him access to anything digital at an high speed and he’d have had a field day. If he could stay off Twitter.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#455

Post by stavros » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:03 PM UTC

dcre wrote: post #434

falcor84 wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ... 4o and o1, which are great step changes but nothing the competition can't quickly replicate. Where did that assertion come from? Has anyone come close to replicating either of these yet (other than possibly Google, who hasn't fully released their thing yet either), let alone "quickly"? I wouldn't be surprised if it's these "sideways" architectural changes actually give OpenAI a deeper moat than just working on…

Claude 3.5 Sonnet is at least as good as 4o.

Much better than 4o, in my experience. I've stopped using 4o almost completely, except for cases where I need good tooling more than I need good performance (PoCs and the like).

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#456

Post by Zondartul » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:05 PM UTC

wildermuthn wrote: post #356

lolinder wrote: post #86

To recap OpenAI's decisions over the past year: * They burned up the hype for GPT-5 on 4o and o1, which are great step changes but nothing the competition can't quickly replicate. * They dissolved the safety team. * They switched to for profit and are poised to give Altman equity. * All while hyping AGI more than ever. All of this suggests to me that Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for AGI…

The only reason Sam would leave OpenAI is if he thought AGI could only be achieved elsewhere, or that AGI was impossible without some other breakthrough in another industry (energy, hardware, etc). High-intelligence AGI is the last human invention — the holy grail of technology. Nothing could be more ambitious, and if we know anything about Altman, it is that his ambition has no ceiling. Having said all of that, Open…

Future NeuroLink collab? Grab the experience of qualia right from the brains of those who do the experiencing.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#457

Post by pj_mukh » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:07 PM UTC

lolinder wrote: post #86

To recap OpenAI's decisions over the past year: * They burned up the hype for GPT-5 on 4o and o1, which are great step changes but nothing the competition can't quickly replicate. * They dissolved the safety team. * They switched to for profit and are poised to give Altman equity. * All while hyping AGI more than ever. All of this suggests to me that Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for AGI…

Except the article makes none of these points. The article is saying:

a) "the technology is overhyped", based on some meaningless subjective criteria, if you think a technology is overhyped, don't invest your money or time in it. No one's forcing you.

b) "child abuse problems are more important", with a link to an article that clearly specifies that the child abuse problems have nothing to do with OpenAI.

c) "it uses too much energy and water". OpenAI is paying fair market price for that energy and what's more the infrastructure companies are using those profits to start making massive investments in alternative energy [1]. So if everything about this AI boom fails what we'll be left with is a massive amount of abundant renewable energy (the horror!)

Probably the laziest conjecture I have endured from The Atlantic.

[1]: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/artificial-intelligen...

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#458

Post by angarg12 » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:07 PM UTC

> Remember, these technologies already have a track record. The world can and should evaluate them, and the people building them, based on their results and their effects, not solely on their supposed potential.

But that's not how the market works.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#459

Post by disiplus » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:08 PM UTC

VirusNewbie wrote: post #402

gizmo wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sam was already a billionaire years ago. He is one of SV most prolific investors, with equity in hundreds of startups. He writes big checks as well from time to time, Helion for instance he gave 375 million.

How? He did not have a large exit to give him a bankroll to invest. Unless you mean from whatever YC shares he received as President, which seems unlikely. Even if he was paid ~25 million in equity per year, did YC shares increase 10x in that time?

Didn't he own like 10% of Reddit. Here what pg had to say about the guy. --- Sam Altman has it. You could parachute him into an island full of cannibals and come back in 5 years and he'd be the king. If you're Sam Altman, you don't have to be profitable to convey to investors that you'll succeed with or without them. (He wasn't, and he did.) Not everyone has Sam's deal-making ability. I myself don't. But if you don't, you can let the numbers speak for you. --- https://paulgraham.com/fundraising.html

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#460

Post by razodactyl » Sat, Oct 05, 2024, 7:10 PM UTC

I think we should consider companies that create or own their own hardware, the ability to generate cheap electricity and the ability of neural networks to continuously learn.

I still "feel the AGI". I think Ben Goertzel'a recent talk on ML Street Talk was quite grounded / too much hype clouds judgement.

In all honesty, once the hype dies down, even if AGI/ASI is a thing - we're still going to be heads down back to work as usual so why not enjoy the ride?

Covid was a great eye-opener, we dream big but in reality people jump over each other for... toilet paper... gotta love that Gaussian curve of IQ right?