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Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

today.oregonstate.edu

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Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#451

Post by [deleted] »

GenerWork wrote: post #245
Symmetry wrote: post #239

With each new IPCC report the chances of us keeping global warming below 1.5 C become more and more remote as emissions are locked in. But at the same time the really bad scenarios where we go well over 4 C also become more remote. Every half degree is worse than the last and each is worth righting for but it does look like our civilization will make it through this intact, even if not all people individually.

>it does look like our civilization will make it through this intact Has anybody ever seriously believed that we wouldn't make it through? This just seems like an alarmist take to me.

[deleted]

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#452

Post by tim333 »

deciplex wrote: post #321
exoverito wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The optimal CO2 level for plant growth is between 800 and 1000 ppm, as observed within greenhouses. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/... There is no perfect solution. One of the benefits of stratospheric aerosols is that they only stay suspended for 10 years or so, reducing the risk of long term effects. They are also an exceptionally cheap strategy, on the order of a few billion a year to…

> they only stay suspended for 10 years or so And then what happens? Earnest question.

Back to the ground in rainfall I guess.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#453

Post by tim333 »

vasco wrote: post #281
daveguy wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One person can make one command decision and make #2 a reality. That's all it takes. No matter how many people drool over AGI the bandwidth and processing just isn't there. We barely have control systems as intelligent as a bacterium.

As far as I know no single person on earth can do it all by themselves - all the mechanisms I'm aware of at least.

Putin seems quite adept at launching dumb wars that no one seems very keen on.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#454

Post by DFHippie »

vasco wrote: post #293
DFHippie wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a paradox. If people assume you are alarmist and discount everything you say -- "Oh, you way we need 100. I assume therefore that we only need 20. Here are 20." -- you need to be alarmist to get them to react appropriately. Then they attribute your exaggeration to your own deficiency, not your reaction to theirs. Anyway, that's a general observation, not a claim that any particular position is alarmist.

This way of behaving in life is a very "rat each other out" choice from the prisioner's dilemma. Whenever I notice someone plays this game of shifting overton window instead of just stating what they want, specially at work, I can never take them seriously again.

That's a great interpersonal approach. It's my preference for sure. Be honest. People you interact with will learn that you are honest. Then you don't have to pull the long bow to convey an accurate message.

It's less clear when it's groups communicating with groups for the benefit of a third party audience. If a member of the Society of the Friends of Truth says something but you hear it via a paraphrase from some AM radio bloviator, individual reputations are less at play and discourse becomes coarser. The audience thinks, "That person is a virtue signaler. Bloviator says things I like to hear. Bloviator has my back. We have the same enemies, he and I. Mr. Virtue can cram it with walnuts!" After decades of this happening, it's easy to see why people would change their rhetorical technique.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#455

Post by tim333 »

aurareturn wrote: post #62
AlexandrB wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

#1 is marketing hype. #2 is very real. #3 is happening and could cause #2 if wars for livable land and water resources break out.

#1 is very real #2 is warmongering #3 will be solved by human ingenuity I have a more positive outlook. :)

Or optimistically AGI will solve #2 and #3

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#456

Post by _yb2s »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #430
_yb2s wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are mis-representing people that intuitively understand that a phrase can have different meanings depending on context, as fundamentally confused and actually muddling the two concepts. Nobody would say "transformers are about the dangers of aliens turning into vehicles" but people would say it is "about aliens that can turn into vehicles." They might also say something like it's "about the the struggle to live d…

You're welcome to make assumptions about what I'm doing, but at the end of the day you have to contend with the fact that I read a comment at face value, in the context, and then multiple people tried to back that original comment up. Maybe if you were the original author your opinion on what they were "trying to say" would matter, but it doesn't.

Who was the original author?

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#457

Post by dTal »

trashtester wrote: post #397
mrexroad wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed the above comment’s point about risk to stability in a chaotic system…

That part looked like gibberish.... Maybe rewrite to make it more clear?

From a different comment whose main thrust you also ignored (you are all over this thread with the same fallacy):

>It doesn't mean it's locally always +5C warmer than it used to be; it means you're seeing insane temperature swings in a matter of days, constantly - in both directions, it just so happens that the average is +5C.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#458

Post by admissionsguy »

eterps wrote: post #385
jonwinstanley wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t think of any circumstances where climate change might cause a threat to human life on the planet?

I also think it's bewildering when people say things like that. Are they thinking that humans are incapable of causing climate change no matter what they do? Or that we are currently not in trouble and fine for decades/centuries to come?

I think you are crazy unreasonable if you think we are not fine for decades or centuries to come, climate-wise. Barring big volcanic eruptions.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#459

Post by fmobus »

goatlover wrote: post #415
itishappy wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This shouldn't be the argument anyway. Why not? The reverse sounds more insightful: If the rest of the world adopts and American standard of life, emissions would be much higher. Should we expect the world to adopt a sub-US standard of living forever, or should we address the impacts of our standard of living?

If the rest of world adopts the American standard of life, that means technology continues to progress, and there's a lot more highly educated people innovating. Given that sustainability and climate change are serious concerns now, I don't agree that it will continue to be a bad thing.

Right, because the thing that is missing that will enable everyone to innovate is being able to drive a 3 ton monstrosity to the nearest (~4 miles) drive thru Starbucks.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#460

Post by shrimp_emoji »

belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

We are not at risk of runaway climate change. That's a common misconception and a convenient scare tactic.

We're also not at risk of runaway AGI any time soon. LLMs are a joke. Minds are computationally irreducible, and all our supercomputers can barely hold a baby fruit fly's connectome.

Unless you mean biological AGI. We're going to figure out genetic engineering far sooner than we'll get the hardware necessary for inorganic AGI. Once we master biology, we can genetically engineer organic super intelligences or, far sooner, superviruses whose genome can be uploaded into a nucleotide synthesizer in someone's garage. Then it's game over. Unless we've colonized Mars (which also helps with nuclear conflict).

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