I wish GPT4 had never happened • Hacker News Board

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#451

Post by jart » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:13 PM UTC

photochemsyn wrote: post #280

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

Why not use AI to automate away the board of directors and the shareholders? It should be entirely possible. We just need an AI capable of generating its own capital, then the investor class can be removed from the loop.

There's a CEO that's an AI: https://www.analyticsinsight.net/chinese-game-company-appoin... Shareholders??? Capital generating AIs would be the things running on advertising and stock exchanges.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#452

Post by klibertp » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:13 PM UTC

surgical_fire wrote: post #398

pixl97 wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I see LLM models not as the end of society, This is because you're used to normal technological development scaling. Unfortunately with AI we are unsure at this point if our old paradigms still apply. What happens with society really depends on where we are on the technology growth curve. If LLMs plateau for a while and we don't see significant growth in their abilities, then we'll just see pretty massive technologi…

That's because you're used to normal technological development hype. Every few years a shiny new toy enters the hype cycle, only to fall out of favor as things stop advancing as people expected. LLMs are impressive at natural language processing (which is a damn hard problem to solve), and can both parse and generate natural language at a satisfactory level. It's an interesting facet of AI, but it also has some glari…

> Every few years a shiny new toy enters the hype cycle

I'd agree, but it's not good to forget that every few decades a new shiny toy shines so brightly that it razes two whole cities to the ground in seconds.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#453

Post by wouldbecouldbe » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:13 PM UTC

surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

If you use 4 it almost always compiles, if you feed it the error will often explain why and fix it for you.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#454

Post by jamilton » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:14 PM UTC

hnfong wrote: post #379

danShumway wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Work" above is being used in a more specific form than you are using it. GP is not referring to all productive work, they are specifically referring to employment on the market. Yes, human beings are better in relationships and better when they help each other, but GP is not talking about abolishing helping other people or doing meaningful things. There are a huge number of things people can do to meaningfully make…

I generally agree with you in principle, but it’s not a given that you can find meaning outside of the job market if the market doesn’t find your labor valuable. What if nobody actually wants your “help”? What if your labor is not only worthless in the job market, but also in general, where people prefer assistance from AI instead of from a live human person? What if no matter what you do, some AI does it better? How…

I think the point where that is the case is pretty far off, since it requires endless fully-autonomous robots and no demand for human-created media or connection.

But regardless, people throughout history have found happiness and meaning in their life completely separately from what they did to put food on the table.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#455

Post by benatkin » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:14 PM UTC

T-A wrote: post #2

> GPT4 gave the correct answer in 1/10th the time it would take Priya and cost a lot less. [...] Priya has tried to learn coding, but she has struggled. Not that she gets a lot of time to do it either. 1) Show Priya how to use GPT4 to do her current job in 1/10th of the time. 2) Let her use part (50%+) of the time saved to learn coding or whatever other skill she needs (not sure coding is it).

This is the suggestion that everybody can just learn to code. I remember Code.org and #HourOfCode back in 2014. Still, it is hard both to find a senior software developer and to become one.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#456

Post by hestefisk » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:15 PM UTC

Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

But how will she enjoy life if she doesn’t make an income anymore? Fairly naive post.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#457

Post by throw__away7391 » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:15 PM UTC

nlh wrote: post #250

surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

I've had a similar experience (but slightly different). The biggest innovation that ChatGPT has brought to me in my programming/workflow tasks is the comfort and ease in which it creates shell scripts. That's an area that's always been just past my comfort zone ("Create a shell script to solve this problem? Now I have two problems..."). But all of a sudden, I feel like a master at shell scripting! Things that have al…

Shell scripting and JavaScript are strengths, any kind of server-side language like Scala or C# it really falls apart quite quickly. I think that integrating into existing APIs is the Achilles' heel, GPT-4 doesn't seem to do any better here either. It makes me wonder if someday we might not get better results completely eschewing libraries altogether and letting the transformers generate literally everything--perhaps recreating similar client libraries over and over and perhaps based on specific existing human-authored libraries, but each one unique to the service, e.g. no external dependencies at all.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#458

Post by crop_rotation » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:15 PM UTC

brigadier132 wrote: post #216

GPT4 is scary, it portends a future that many of us thought would never happen a year or two ago. We all think about the potential risks, about the kind of power this kind of mechanical intelligence can grant evil individuals or just the everyday people that will be "left behind". But even so I think we can't afford NOT to have this kind of development if we want to survive as a species. If we want our lives to impro…

The comparisons with Chess are frivolous. Chess players don't depend on fighting stockfish/Alphazero for their livelihood. Chess players had to do nothing when Stockfish/Alphazero got better than them (except incorporating them during practice maybe). People still want to only watch humans playing chess. There is no market for AI v AI match.

The Chess players can not be replaced by AI regardless of how well the AI plays. So the comparison is meaningless.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#459

Post by 1123581321 » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:15 PM UTC

scarface74 wrote: post #101

1123581321 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, in these situations your business is either about to become obsolete or is about to have much more competition. You could hire people to do the new tasks required to thrive, but it’s easier to retrain people you already know and who want to work for you.

It actually much easier to hire people who already have the skillset and pay them 5-10% more than they are making because of salary compression and inversion.

That’s only true during stable times or when more mature markets are casting off that type of employee. Or, I suppose, if a company is incapable of understanding employees’ aptitudes behind their skills.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#460

Post by PAMANOCH » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 4:16 PM UTC

I laughed so hard at the "10x times more productive -> do 10x more work". One simply do not have that much work to do. I used to hire people to paint my wall in a day, now with robotics I can let the same amount of people paint my wall 10 times in a day. No. How about I fire 90% of the workers and let the last one paint the wall with the same time.

Make no mistake, GPT-4 is just a beginning. Far more powerful models will come, without any compromise, without any limitations. They will REPLACE your jobs, take away your income, and you will have no choice but starve after you running out of your savings inevitably. It's not about to earn more or less; It's about winner takes it all. Also more specialized models trained at every profession will come.

Midjourney already completely knocked a huge amount of digital designers and workers out of their jobs. I'm talking about a great profit wipe which is currently happening at a lightning speed across the entire digital art industry. One successful artist often needs to spend 10+ years learning to make better art. Now it's 100% irrelevant. Every company I know is switching to Midjourney at god speed, since you do not want to be left behind. Human resources have already become a burden. You don't even want to believe how fast the entire field is shifting to this without turning back and left countless human creators with now worthless skills in dust.

But remember - the current state of Midjourney is just its early stage. I fully expect its output quality completely decimate every human artist on the earth after 1-2 years, maybe 18 months, maybe even less than that. Remember AlphaGo? It's simply on another level. You just cannot compete. Soon (1-2 years top, 12-18 months more likely) the creative industry will vanish and everyone will be forced to switch their jobs.

Yes, UBI will happen because people demanded it on Twitter. Make no mistake, there will be Zero protection, Zero alternative, Zero compensation from AI takeover. Billions of people out of a job, starve, die, while top companies take 100% of profit. This is the only possible outcome.

You have enjoyed peak capitalism. You will soon need to embrace 100% of it.