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U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

cnbc.com

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Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#451

Post by lettergram »

ceejayoz wrote: post #438
lettergram wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The risk/reward ratio of that would be insanely bad. That's in the realm of "lizard people" in terms of likelihood.

You have NATO already providing training, signal intelligence, communications, weapons, advisory personnel and volunteers in Ukraine.

Russia is already saying it’s in a limited war with NATO.

Germany is already saying it’s at war with Russia.

What I suggest is actually the F-22 is being using for signal intelligence over the Black Sea; helping guide in missles. Such as this attack

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62500560

Which Ukraine didn’t claim credit for (initially anyway, not sure if they ever did). Ukraine can even fire a missile and 50 miles off the coast (in international waters) an F-22 can guide it in.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#452

Post by SergeAx »

humanizersequel wrote: post #251
KennyBlanken wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like the large size is mostly just solar panels (I'm assuming that's what they were; they could have been 'sails' to help steer it) and their scaffolding. From some of the available photos there's two wings, each with eight panels. There's a tradeoff between the weight of the solar panels vs simply using batteries (though batteries don't like the cold, and solar panels do), so I think maybe they were hoping…

>They can task commercial satellites and get as good or better imagery. Is that true? Just from quickly poking around, LEO satellites seem to orbit at about triple the height, moving far faster than a balloon lazily floating along the jetstream. Probably can use a larger variety of instruments as well.

> about triple the height

Hundred times the height, to be exact.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#453

Post by riku_iki »

SnowHill9902 wrote: post #411
404mm wrote: post #382

I feel like the balloon takedown was seriously mishandled. Imo it should have been shot down right after it crossed our borders and before it started move over populated areas. That way there would be no surveillance and you could examine the payload. Now that it’s in the water, you may not even find it.

It was purposefully taken down once it was on shallow waters to preserve the equipment as much as possible.

electronics is damaged by water likely, it could have more chance to survive if hit the ground.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#454

Post by SergeAx »

moomoo11 wrote: post #395
404mm wrote: post #382

I feel like the balloon takedown was seriously mishandled. Imo it should have been shot down right after it crossed our borders and before it started move over populated areas. That way there would be no surveillance and you could examine the payload. Now that it’s in the water, you may not even find it.

Do you really believe the USAF and rest of the military and 3 letter agencies had not already intercepted/jammed/hacked the comms link? By letting it saunter all the way across they also probably got a lot of good info on its capabilities.

FWIW, all comms of that balloon would be satellite. I don't think it is easy to jam, let alone intercept.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#455

Post by bagels »

humanizersequel wrote: post #251
KennyBlanken wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like the large size is mostly just solar panels (I'm assuming that's what they were; they could have been 'sails' to help steer it) and their scaffolding. From some of the available photos there's two wings, each with eight panels. There's a tradeoff between the weight of the solar panels vs simply using batteries (though batteries don't like the cold, and solar panels do), so I think maybe they were hoping…

>They can task commercial satellites and get as good or better imagery. Is that true? Just from quickly poking around, LEO satellites seem to orbit at about triple the height, moving far faster than a balloon lazily floating along the jetstream. Probably can use a larger variety of instruments as well.

LEO (300-1500km) is much higher than the apparent 60,000 ft altitude of this balloon (18km).

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#456

Post by sieabahlpark »

moomoo11 wrote: post #395
404mm wrote: post #382

I feel like the balloon takedown was seriously mishandled. Imo it should have been shot down right after it crossed our borders and before it started move over populated areas. That way there would be no surveillance and you could examine the payload. Now that it’s in the water, you may not even find it.

Do you really believe the USAF and rest of the military and 3 letter agencies had not already intercepted/jammed/hacked the comms link? By letting it saunter all the way across they also probably got a lot of good info on its capabilities.

[dead]

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#457

Post by aikinai »

calderknight wrote: post #311
strulovich wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of calculations are slightly silly. F22s take off for training flights all the time, having one training flight switch to operational does not affect the cost. It’s similar for using missiles. The opportunity to shoot a real one at a real target is good training. Those things costs this money perhaps, but it’s not a useful way to think of it this way for such a case.

I think the implication is not that the cost in this specific case was very high. I think the point was that there is an assymetry in cost. So, if someone wanted to have balloons over the USA, it would be much cheaper for them to try than it would be for the USA to stop them. By the time someone starts sending 1000's of balloons, the costs to destroy them may add up.

China already does something similar to Japan. They fly hundreds of flights a year around Japanese airspace, forcing Japan to constantly scramble jets just in case. This tires their pilots, puts wear on their planes, and costs a ton of money.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#458

Post by Dalewyn »

User23 wrote: post #270
Dalewyn wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree that using China as our 21st century boogieman is very tiresome, the fact of the matter is China is not a friend of the west.

China isn't even a friend to the east. At least that's the impression I get from my Korean, Thai, Viet, and Japanese friends.

As a Japanese (specifically Japanese-American, but details), I will affirm that China is not a friend to the east.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#459

Post by ceejayoz »

lettergram wrote: post #444
NegativeLatency wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t you expect video to surface of f-22s in action?

F-22s we’re designed to guide weapons to targets. Ukraine launches a few rockets and a stealth f-22 off the coast can guide it in. Something like this seems plausible here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62500560 There are some alternative theories (small drones painting targets), but imo it’s just as plausible a stealth plane 50 miles away gave a missile some coordinates

You don’t need an F-22’s guidance to hit a stationary ground target available on Google Maps.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#460

Post by Ancapistani »

sabujp wrote: post #146

Spy balloon cost : $3k - $50k , you can even buy them on alibaba and some other sites: https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-hot-sale-surveillance-balloon-with_60454941082.html https://www.made-in-china.com/showroom/jennerjiang/product-list/catalog-1.html?view=0 Cost to shoot down balloon with F22 $400k for the AIM-9X, ~$85k for 1 hour of flight time, so ~$400 - $500k to shoot down one balloon that cost < $50k

Why would they use an AIM-9X? This is the kind of thing guns are for.
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