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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#451

Post by ewzimm »

nosianu wrote: post #401
xwolfi wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you underestimate our ability to downsize, turn around and build them locally on a 5-year horizon, and our ability to backtrack tensions anyway if we re reaching a nuclear point. We will give Ukraine to Russia if we can save Paris.

> We will give Ukraine to Russia if we can save Paris. Only that you just taught the already aggressive ruling elite of a huge country with an abundance of resources who don't care about anyone including their own except that they need them for work and for the fighting that threatening use of nukes gets them anything they want. Moldova next - it's not EU or NATO, already very low risk for Russia, if they can get the…

This is a good comment, but rather than tens of millions of new citizens, they would get tens of millions of new insurgents. Nearly the whole population of Ukraine is involved in the war effort in some way, and it would be impossible to break this completely. The only thing that could be given to Russia with the conquest of Ukraine is the option to turn into Afghanistan instead of North Korea.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#452

Post by undersuit »

incomingpain wrote: post #91
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

The massive war with China has left obvious key issues in chip fabrication. The reason or whatever for the ongoing war with china doesn't matter. Similar factories are being built in Germany by Infineon: https://www.infineon.com/cms/en/about-infineon/press/press-r... Samsung in Texas: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/samsung-plans-17-... Intel in Arizona: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/intel-is-spending-20…

If the US was really serious about microchips being critical infrastructure we'd want over production. We have more roads than makes sense, we should have more chips on-hand than our critical power and data infrastructure needs to be rebuilt in the event of a catastrophe.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#453

Post by theptip »

blaser-waffle wrote: post #395
theptip wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of…

> Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region -- and the US Navy still has a strong presence in Japan. Also S. Korea and the Philippines. This means potentially launching missiles at these countries too, and the Chin…

> China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region

Do you have a source for this? I haven't heard this stated before, but I'm not an expert here.

Even taking this as true, I think it's a big leap to go from striking US military bases in Japan, to striking civilian infrastructure in those countries.

It seems quite clear to me that the opening salvo you are hypothesizing (attacking multiple military bases and civilian targets) would be an act of war against the USA and Japan. This would certainly provoke all-out war with the US, and they have a first-use policy that could entail a nuclear response.

Frankly the whole scenario above seems extremely unlikely to me, and I think Ukraine is the better example to model here. Essentially, China occupies Taiwan, and dares the US to strike in retaliation, knowing that their retaliation would be the thing that triggers armageddon, and betting that the US is not actually willing to escalate militarily over Taiwan. I predict that China would take an effort to avoid attacking any US military personnel stationed in Taiwan (I gather this is just an unofficial presence), because the rational play is to give the US as little excuse as possible to escalate in response.

In other words, China MUST offer the US a path to de-escalation/capitulation in order to take Taiwan without a war with the USA. It's much easier to take Taiwan without a full war with the USA (obviously, IMO).

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#454

Post by Slartie »

MockObject wrote: post #190
consumer451 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would mostly agree, but is "saving face"[0] considered rational behavior? How big a factor is that in this thread's context? Honest questions here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_(sociological_concept)#Ch...

It's quite rational because of the crucial importance of reputation internationally, and the image of competence domestically.

If by "internationally" you mean Western countries: Xi Jinping doing dumb things to save his "face" is very detrimental to his reputation there.

No one outside of China thinks his stubborn refusal to abandon the failed Zero Covid policy is in any way a good idea. Everyone sees it as a stupid and irrational face-saving action.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#455

Post by patentatt »

MikePlacid wrote: post #330
vkou wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they aren't. There's not a single point in time when I have ever scanned my own groceries faster than the guy who does it 8 hours a day. They scream at me when they think I'm stealing (Any human being doing that would instantly be reprimanded by a manager), they have tiny platforms where I can't even fit my groceries and heaven forbid if I do something the machine doesn't like, an attendant needs to come unfuck i…

> I can't wait for the next grocery innovation of having the customers stock the shelves from the backroom before they can fill a sack with onions. Think bolder. As a software engineer in the Soviet Union I had to spend about three weeks each year in the collective farm fields planting, tending and harvesting potatoes and cabbages. Since some of my American friends are very fond of socialism these days - these types…

Not saying that wasn't difficult, but that actually sounds pretty cool to me.

And not to be overly pedantic (although we are on hn here, and when in Rome...), but leading American socialist movements are focused on democratic socialism, much like many European countries where I'm pretty sure forced agrarian labor isn't a thing.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#456

Post by nosianu »

ewzimm wrote: post #451
nosianu wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We will give Ukraine to Russia if we can save Paris. Only that you just taught the already aggressive ruling elite of a huge country with an abundance of resources who don't care about anyone including their own except that they need them for work and for the fighting that threatening use of nukes gets them anything they want. Moldova next - it's not EU or NATO, already very low risk for Russia, if they can get the…

This is a good comment, but rather than tens of millions of new citizens, they would get tens of millions of new insurgents. Nearly the whole population of Ukraine is involved in the war effort in some way, and it would be impossible to break this completely. The only thing that could be given to Russia with the conquest of Ukraine is the option to turn into Afghanistan instead of North Korea.

> they would get tens of millions of new insurgents.

I doubt it. Most people will be passive and will just live their lives. They will get a few for sure, but they won't be able to do all that much. It's not like the ruling elite cares if there's an occasional killing, after all, they already use that method themselves, see the list of Russian businessmen and manager deaths.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#457

Post by Apocryphon »

theptip wrote: post #453
blaser-waffle wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region -- and the US Navy still has a strong presence in Japan. Also S. Korea and the Philippines. This means potentially launching missiles at these countries too, and the Chin…

> China has said that they believe that, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, they will be obligated to strike US forces everywhere in the region Do you have a source for this? I haven't heard this stated before, but I'm not an expert here. Even taking this as true, I think it's a big leap to go from striking US military bases in Japan, to striking civilian infrastructure in those countries. It seems quite clear…

The specifics of the top three economies in the world going to non-proxy war with one another, in the age of MAD, is incredibly hard to imagine.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#458

Post by sitkack »

LeifCarrotson wrote: post #204
nscalf wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does it do little to diversify these fabs? The current situation is that if China invades Taiwan, the entire Western world is compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan's high end chip fabs. It cannot be overstated how much we depend on that, if TSMC operates in other countries, we don't HAVE to engage in WW3.

A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Korea would not be. It's not so much that cruise missiles used on civilian targets in South Korea or Japan would not be a reason to start WW3, more that it would be less tempting.

All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port.

It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#459

Post by bullen »

striking wrote: post #393
bullen wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TLS 1.3 is not more secure then TLS 1.2 Now Mojang and Rockstar (on azure) have disabled TLS 1.2 on their servers on purpose to lockout Windows 7. Windows 10 offers NOTHING of value compared to Windows 7.

You should give https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ssl/why-use-tls-1.3/ a read. Put briefly, TLS 1.2 supports cyphersuites that make it less secure and requires more roundtripping. It's not a surprise to me that some folks don't support it. Furthermore, the makers of Minecraft and Grand Theft Auto don't owe you the ability to use outdated OSes if you're using a service they maintain. They probably didn't intend to b…

I need to have Win for game dev. Nothing is an out in any way.

HTTPS is not secure in any way.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#460

Post by tempnow987 »

terminalcommand wrote: post #287
kuschku wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need certain machines for EUV. There's only one manufacturer (ASML) for those, and they're at capacity. And even if they wanted to scale up, there's only one manufacturer (Zeiss) for the EUV mirrors required for those machines, and all their capacity for the next years is already bought as well.

Why can't ASML scale up? I don't understand this. I think because they are a monopoly they can work slower, they don't need the extra profits.

They have a build process video. A lot of knowledge is in folks heads as well from what they said - and nothing is "mass produced" really. And it's all at the absolute limits.

Zeiss covers their mirrors and lenses. The smoothness is extreme: "If you were to enlarge such a mirror to the size of Germany, the largest unevenness – the Zugspitze, so to speak – would be a whole 0.1 millimeters high."

Then they have positioning / tilt accuracy.

"If one of these EUV mirrors were to redirect a laser beam and aim it at the Moon, it would be able to hit a ping pong ball on the Moon’s surface."

What they don't say is what the yield is on these. I've heard they have to try and make X to get y that can hit all the specs.

In the machines themselves didn't they have to build in both an electron microscope and an atomic force microscope for defect detection?

And then the environment they operate in is terrible from a wavelength absorption energy / contamination (tin?) issues etc.

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