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Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

yarn.pranshum.com

451–460 of 550 posts

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#451
post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that surprising? Alternatively, do you have a fix in mind? Having power means you can build more things that give you more power faster than someone with less power. You can't change this using inflation, as people will just hold something else instead of cash (and, in fact, inflation seems to most punish the people with the least power, as those people are spending a much much greater proportion of their income o…

Can't hold more than roughly $5000 of real assets and qualify for Medicaid (subsidized healthcare). Keeping that cash in the mattress is a very real option for many people with huge responsibilities (child care) and very little power. [citations needed] - I don't know what the savings limits are as of October 2022.

According to elderlymedicaid.com[1] it's based on income, and varies by state.

[1] https://elderlymedicaid.com/medicaid-asset-limits

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#452
post #393
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I go to ford.com and look at their basic truck, the 2023 Maverick, I see "starting at $22,195". So if a 1962 truck truly sold for $2000, the inflation seems to account for entirely the price increase. And I'm pretty sure everyone will agree a 2023 Maverick is superior to a 1962 F-100 in every conceivable aspect. Housing and healthcare are better examples of goods or services whose prices have increased faster th…

I suspect that to an extent, prices rise with the proportion of income people are willing to allocate to something. Cars will rise to the amount that matches the importance people place on them. If cars become less important due to electric bikes and Zoom, manufacturers will be able to charge less. The investment in researching car design would decrease accordingly. Same with energy sources etc.

True, but only for goods with a moat. Let's say an iPhone. I may value a fruit at 10 Euros and you may sell me a fruit at that price, but if someone else can produce them for 2 Euros they will perhaps sell them for 5 Euros and make a good profit. So the price will be 5 or even less.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because it becomes impossible to service the debt Those companies should have made more responsible financial decisions.

When the money was free (near zero interest rates), borrowing money to invest in capital was imminently responsible.

  > borrowing money to invest in capital
is it possible to explain what this referring to?

stock buybacks or (productive) capital investments?

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#454
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I go to ford.com and look at their basic truck, the 2023 Maverick, I see "starting at $22,195". So if a 1962 truck truly sold for $2000, the inflation seems to account for entirely the price increase. And I'm pretty sure everyone will agree a 2023 Maverick is superior to a 1962 F-100 in every conceivable aspect. Housing and healthcare are better examples of goods or services whose prices have increased faster th…

In the 80s when I was a kid, we owned our own house, even though my father was a small time farmer and my mother stayed home raising us. We scraped by. In today's standards, it was a life of abject poverty. I knew a guy whose father ran a steel company (self made millionaire). Their house wasn't much bigger than ours, but they had VCR, microwave, CD players and satellite TV years before we did. But the real differenc…

In the 1920s it was cheaper to retain a servant full time than to own a car. Now it's completely the other way round, and for a car a million times better. Production of goods scales; anything labour-intensive does not, especially when land supply and usage are constrained by government regulation, and cost of labo[u]r is inflated by same.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk.. First, you can't get the old vehicle new for cheap. That option is no longer available. You do get an objectively better one, but value is fundamentally subjective. Marginal economics bridges this gap with consumer choice, but if no choice is available then I don't think you can assume consumers are better off. In any case, I think inflation is a backwards lens through which to examine vehicle prices. The prima…

Cars don’t break down as much and last much longer. A 20 year old car nowadays can still be perfectly usable. So in effectively they did get cheaper, just buy used (at least that was the case until 2020..)

I own a 21 year old car that still drives great. It's amazing honestly.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#456
post #250
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I go to ford.com and look at their basic truck, the 2023 Maverick, I see "starting at $22,195". So if a 1962 truck truly sold for $2000, the inflation seems to account for entirely the price increase. And I'm pretty sure everyone will agree a 2023 Maverick is superior to a 1962 F-100 in every conceivable aspect. Housing and healthcare are better examples of goods or services whose prices have increased faster th…

I'd be surprised if you can get a truck at anywhere near MSRP these days. Trucks aren't a great example anyways because they're seen as a luxury good in the US today, which wasn't the case in the 60s.

> I'd be surprised if you can get a truck at anywhere near MSRP these days.

Europe, that's where. List price vs MSRP is not a mostly US issue honestly.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point the fed seems to be saying that those days are over, they will continue to increase rates until inflation hits 2%. Obviously this cannot go on forever because it becomes impossible to service the debt and you have to print money to pay it off. But it gives you more time and prevents hyper-inflation and we can hope that by then AI and other technological advances have made what we consider "economics" mo…

>we can hope that by then AI and other technological advances have made what we consider "economics" mostly irrelevant. Is there a serious hope that AGI will invent a replicator soon after coming online? It seems likeliest to me that if a greater-than-human intelligence comes online it won't have a circumvention for the laws of thermodynamics and there still won't be such a thing as a free lunch.

No replicator, just extremely cheap labor and energy. Imagine if someone from 1000 years ago could have access to an American garbage dump. Things that in our current economy have zero or negative value would be extremely valuable to those people (Plastics, Metals, Electronics, Machined Clothes, Plant Seeds)

That same thing will happen again once we have another huge advancement in technology. What we consider to be expensive and valuable today will be of zero or negative value to someone 100 years from now.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't create energy by printing money. Yes but the energy crisis isn't evenly distributed across the world. NA, for example, is still doing relatively well. While Europe is being hit relatively hard by the shortage and will likely have to import from more expensive sources than previous years to make it through the winter.

How would European governments printing more of their own currencies to give handouts to their citizens, resulting in inflation, resulting in their currencies becoming weaker, help buying energy from NA?

  > European governments printing more of their own currencies to give handouts to their citizens, resulting in inflation
are you sure its printing?

couldn't they just tax it back from the wealthy in the end...?

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because the stripper can no longer afford food doesn't mean that food sellers will be able to lower their price. Supply issues can't be solved by price changes. Taken to the extreme, people will die of starvation until the population adjusts, so still in the long run demand and supply will meet at the price point.

But the people who were pocketing those higher profits and salaries back when gas prices went down, now do have room to cut prices though and still make money. It can't go both ways. Anyway starving people still have labor to sell, which they will sell as cheaply as they have to, driving everyone's costs down and allowing them to cut prices after all.

The price of labor isn't the problem, and anyway it has a floor. No one will work for 1 dollar a day, even if it's theoretically still better than 0 (not if bread costs 2 dollars at least - of course there are countries with such low wages).

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#460
post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving people a one-time bonus never made sense to me. They’ll feel rich, spend it all, and be back in their previous situation next month.

Limited available evidence shows that people are extremely conservative with spending windfalls with much of it going to pay down debt.

to that point: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-credit-idUSKB...
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