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All poverty is energy poverty

omnibudsman.substack.com

451–460 of 466 posts

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some form of government exists in any place on Earth - lest that territory is claimed by some other government. Yet, a large number of such entities are unable to guarantee those rights. The gap between the minimum common denominator of a state - ability to claim and hold a territory - and the stable an advanced state is made up by inclusive political institutions.

You can have free markets without inclusive institutions. Free markets require the government to guarantee rights to do what one wants to do, as long as it does not harm others. It also requires a government to enforce contracts and property rights. It requires equality under the law. Note that when I say "requires" I don't mean absolutely. The closer to this a society is, the more free market it is, and the better t…

> require the government to guarantee rights to do what one wants to do, as long as it does not harm others. It also requires a government to enforce contracts and property rights.

That's far from sufficient for sustained economic growth. Most feudal societies had strong property rights - as long as you were on the good side of your king at least, and in times of peace. The population had strong individual autonomy and could even sell themselves into servitude, a right no modern state recognizes. But because all productive capital (land) was controlled by an extractive elite, and alternate forms of capital (human, technological) were undeveloped, such societies were not market economies in the modern sense and living in them was hell for most except select few.

Freedom to do and own anything means nothing when you own nothing.

> It requires equality under the law.

A fair justice system is one of those fundamental inclusive institutions I talk about. We have problems achieving that goal even in the most developed countries.

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#452
post #358
post #60

There seems to be a choice between artificially holding back energy generation due to net zero concerns keeping more people in poverty for longer, or we could pursue fossil fuels and nuclear and lift more people out of poverty now (and presumably hope for a future fix/mitigation for climate impacts). I wonder which would save most lives overall? I would also note that those living in poverty currently don't seem to h…

Per the article, this is a false dichotomy. If we increase energy production by 1%, and use it for carbon capture, then we will have a carbon negative economy.

Increase energy production using fossil fuels?

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poverty is by definition a relative notion. A middle class occidental has access to culinary diversity, healthcare, transport speeds and indoor plumbing that not even kings could dream of a few centuries ago. Poverty is defined relative to the technological frontier - what is known and achievable in a certain age with reasonable effort and access to common resources. > Was Man of the Hole poor? > Was that a social po…

So, if you choose to define poverty as relative, that works. Checking via dict.org, the first given definition however is: "The quality or state of being poor or indigent; want or scarcity of means of subsistence; indigence; need." The second allows for a possible relative measure, in proposing both need and desire as conditions: "Any deficiency of elements or resources that are needed or desired, or that constitute…

The discussion is undoubtedly framed developmentally, the author clearly compares affluence among contemporary societies and tries to propose economic and technological determinants for those outcomes.

In that limited frame, my assertion is that all poverty is determined by societal and institutional factors, and is also, by economic definition, a relative notion.

As for the economic development of isolated tribes, we can of course speculate about different historic and economic paths they could take. There is an interesting field of inquiry that proposes an alternative history where the Roman empire sees an industrial revolution in the 1st-3rd centuries. As interesting as those speculations are, they are of little help to someone living in a corrupt and dysfunctional state, unable to benefit from the fruits of an industrial revolution that long since happened. Saying to that person "you are poor because you don't have enough energy" is disingenuous, when the real cause is oppressive and extractive power structures that could easily be dismantled.

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imagine if all that effort were redirected. Well, we'd get there faster, of course. But that's still not right now, that would be still many years, especially for the third world which can't afford the investment.

Right now, we have enough energy. If every home was insulated and had a heat pump, we'd all be richer. Why havent we done that? Why, when the initial Ukraine invasion in 2014 caused a gas price spike, did Bjorn Lomborg and other climate change deniers write an article very much like this one, in which he advocated against more renewables, and instead said we needed to invest in research to find the real solution. So…

> If every home was insulated and had a heat pump, we'd all be richer.

Yes of course. If every person had a flying car we'd all be richer too.

> Why havent we done that?

Perhaps because the (energy, work) cost of digging heat pumps for every home is too high for us to afford?

How much energy is necessary to create a heat pump and how long does it take for it to pay off?

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#455
post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then nobody prevents you having what to want even today. This is the beauty of capitalism: it’s perfectly fine to have other forms of organizations inside it. There are communes and kibbutz you can join right now.

No, there aren't. I am not Amish nor Jew. Anyway, that is besides the point. No one is arguing against "capitalism". The argument is against Globalism and Corporativism. Capitalism, by itself, is amoral. The problem is, e.g, Disney and the NBA kow-towing to the Chinese because of the "Chinese market".

There are many secular intentional communities you can join, right now. I used to live on one; it was great!

But you can’t actually achieve what you call localism for the majority of the population without severely constraining the options for that majority.

And it’s exactly those constraints, which you seem to repeatedly ignore in this and other threads, that people are objecting to. It gives people actually working towards a satisfying localism a bad name, being associated with involuntary ideological constraints.

As it happens, I would be happy to argue against capitalism. I agree no one should argue against markets, but capitalism isn’t markets, it’s entrenched power assigned to those who have accumulated capital for themselves, often justified by “it’s just markets!” when in reality the laws are helping the big capital holders more than is required by just “markets”.

But I won’t argue for localism as a power structure. More local control, OK, maybe, but you seem to think that would lead to more local self reliance. I doubt it.

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar and wind have so far not been nearly adequate to charge existing EVs, let alone what would be necessary if we all converted to EVs. This is categorically false. We already produce >10x as much wind energy alone that all BEVs in the US consume. We already produce orders of magnitude more hydro electricity than we need for every passenger vehicle in the US to be a BEV.

> This is categorically false. Yet California urged customers to not charge their EVs during peak hours because there isn't enough electricity available. And EVs are still only a tiny percentage of cars. > hydro is a doomed power source, because rivers are drying up, suitable sites are rare, and no new ones will be built because of environmental concerns. Existing ones get blown up. https://www.nps.gov/olym/learn/nat…

To be fair, Californians were asked not to charge between 4pm and 9pm. There’s plenty of capacity over night.

If we’d built car-to-grid infrastructure, EVs would be helping load shift, and they’re already not hurting in most cases, because we’re mostly not charging during peak consumption hours.

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#457
post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can it survive against a larger-scale opponent that wants to take its resources, though? Without a friendly superpower enforcing peace with an extraordinarily powerful military, that is.

Switzerland managed to do it for centuries already.

[deleted]

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#458
post #354
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a failure of education, and in many ways a deliberate one because of the primacy of industry over the past century.

It's a systematic failure of government going back at least two centuries. In 1913, people were making identical complaints about the government and courts (especially regarding IP) as they do today.

I agree — I think often where there is a prolonged failure of democratic government it is a result of insufficient attention to updating the education of the voting population.

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, if you choose to define poverty as relative, that works. Checking via dict.org, the first given definition however is: "The quality or state of being poor or indigent; want or scarcity of means of subsistence; indigence; need." The second allows for a possible relative measure, in proposing both need and desire as conditions: "Any deficiency of elements or resources that are needed or desired, or that constitute…

The discussion is undoubtedly framed developmentally, the author clearly compares affluence among contemporary societies and tries to propose economic and technological determinants for those outcomes. In that limited frame, my assertion is that all poverty is determined by societal and institutional factors, and is also, by economic definition, a relative notion. As for the economic development of isolated tribes, w…

Mind: though I've strong sympathies with elements of TFA's argument, I also have problems with its absolute line that all poverty is energy poverty. It's possible to think of counterexamples extending in both directions --- those who are energy-rich and still impoverished, and those who have little access to energy but live relatively well-off, with basic needs and securities addressed. I've been holding off on a longer reply to TFA itself as I think through this, and have largely lost the useful comment window on this particular article.

In both cases, I'd argue that simplistic reductionism isn't accurate and is probably not especially useful.

I would agree, however, with the following statements:

- Energy is something of a master resource, in that given sufficient energy shortages of virtually any other input can be compensated for. That said, energy works through capital, material inputs, knowledge, and labour to produce goods and services.

- Much actual poverty observed today is far more a matter of inequitable distribution, and virtually all of that socially imposed.

- At societal levels (city, region, state, globally), there's a strong relationship between total net well-being and net energy access, though this probably shows strong threshold effects and rapidly diminishing returns after a point.

- There are alternative service modes which might address needs in low-energy regimes. To take the article's discussion of refrigeration and food spoilage: yes, refrigeration is one way to provide sufficient and high-nutrition foods to populations, but there are other options, including dried bulk grains and pulses, freeze-drying and canning (both require energy in food processing but don't have the hard requirements of a reliable cold-chain distribution and storage network), UHT (ultra-high temperature) milk pasturisation (which permits unrefrigerated storage for months), fermentation, and conventionally dried fruits and vegetables (more texture/nutrition loss than freeze-drying, but less energy intensive), as well as other preserving methods. Fresh produce might be locally sourced fresh where possible.

But as W. Brian Arthur has noted (he's both appeared and been quoted on the Santa Fe Institute's Complexity podcast recently), at a certain scale, economic systems require something analogous to a heart as an active circulatory system to ensure that all people get access to resources and financial capital necessary for survival.

Re: All poverty is energy poverty

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The discussion is undoubtedly framed developmentally, the author clearly compares affluence among contemporary societies and tries to propose economic and technological determinants for those outcomes. In that limited frame, my assertion is that all poverty is determined by societal and institutional factors, and is also, by economic definition, a relative notion. As for the economic development of isolated tribes, w…

Mind: though I've strong sympathies with elements of TFA's argument, I also have problems with its absolute line that all poverty is energy poverty. It's possible to think of counterexamples extending in both directions --- those who are energy-rich and still impoverished, and those who have little access to energy but live relatively well-off, with basic needs and securities addressed. I've been holding off on a lon…

You are of course correct that energy is a master resource that powers all physical transformations that drive economic development. You are in fact so correct that the claim is almost meaningless: we are awash with potential sources of energy, vast amounts of solar energy bathe the planet while huge reserves of fissile nuclear material lay in the crust, at the limit all matter can be converted into gargantuan amounts of energy - if only humanity learns how.

So the story of "access to energy" is in fact the story of economic development itself, the story of how packs of primates structure themselves to shape the world using knowledge in the form a transmissible and inheritable culture. Focusing on energy, a loosely correlated intermediate output of this process, is missing the finer details of that structure. As you observe, energy efficiency is just another way a well structured society can improve their well-being despite relative scarcity of raw energy inputs - the welfare effects are primarily the results of structural reasons, not energy reasons.

The well known "resource curse", which I hinted at in my top level comment and which downvoted me to "-1", is a perfect illustration of this principle:

-> We are given an advanced technological frontier AND given a large, free resource that is relatively valuable within that frontier (which we can loosely equate with energy, since you can trade any resource on the world market for oil, gas, uranium etc. or the implements necessary to transform them into energy).

-> There is strong empirical precedent to suggest that, on the long run, the inhabitants of that particular political unit risk decreasing welfare, lower real wages, and curtailed individual freedoms, unless their society is well structured (say, like Norway)

This is why I abhor explanations like "energy poverty": if energy was the real reason, then how can getting more energy make you worse off? Why should we abstract away the very essence of the problem staring us in the face - the political system in the most general sense, culture, social relations etc. - and pick some loosely correlated variable that's neat and makes us sound insightful?

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