california: please stop using power or we have to rotate blackouts!
also california: YOU MUST ALL BUY ELECTRIC VEHICLES!
EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
451–460 of 557 posts
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#452Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Even conscientious cyclists who call “on your left” or whatever routinely underestimate the necessary reaction time and overestimate how far their voice will carry. You are absolutely right. As a cyclist there isn’t really any good way to reliably avoid startling a pedestrian in a mixed environment. Even if you do the even more conscientious thing and you slow all the way down to match speed with them, and then “wa…
> As a cyclist there isn’t really any good way to reliably avoid startling a pedestrian in a mixed environment. Why couldn't you just ask (or require) bicyclists to use bells or horns of some sort? Pedestrians would get used to the noise after a while.
As an example; That has worked fine for at least a century since bells were introduced as a requirement on bicycles in the 1900's around here (yes that is no typo). Pedestrians are usually annoyed but do notices the cyclist and that's what you want to achieve.
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#453Earlier quoted context omitted.
> EVs are much heavier than their equivalent ICE vehicles. This is not true. The Tesla Model 3 is the same weight as a BMW 3 series (~3,600-4,100lbs depending on trim level). Yes EVs carry a half ton of batteries, but they get rid of the engine block, transmission, starter motor, fuel tank, alternator, exhaust system, and many other parts. Also many combustion vehicles made today are hybrids, meaning they also carry…
You're comparing a single EV that's light for it's class with a single gas car that's heavy for it's class. Why not compare the 3 series (1800kg) with the electric 3 series (2200kg)? Or compare the Corsa (1094kg) with the electric Corsa-e (1455kg)
Both of your comparisons suffer from the fact that neither of those BEVs are built on a platform designed from the ground up for a BEV, but rather an ICE platform with a battery shoe-horned into it.
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#454I have owned a Tesla, and I leased my wife a Bolt a while back. She's convinced, I'm convinced, but with the lease coming to an end next year we probably will not replace the Bolt with another EV. Why? Prices. I was ready to buy a Mach E, but then Ford raised the price something like 6 grand while simultaneously losing the $7500 tax credit. That effectively bumps the price of the car into a territory I don't think ma…
I've seen Rav4 Primes selling for $20k over the $50k premium MSRP. They're not in a better place than regular EVs.
Listed or selling? Plenty of dealers are trying to get well over MSRP but only an idiot would pay that much for a RAV4 Prime.
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#455Earlier quoted context omitted.
Where do you guys live? Here in Sweden we have a small bell on the steering you ring when you want to pass. https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&channel=iphone_b...
I have a Cricket bell, which can be rung normally, and can also be clicked down to act as a cowbell, gently ringing as i ride along (especially if i give the handlebar a quick wobble): https://granite-design.com/products/cricket-bell I use this when i ride along a shared-use path. It makes no difference. Either people are walking in a group and talking, so they don't hear it, or they have earphones in, so they don't…
Wide paths with a modest number of bikes are usually OK. But I've definitely been on narrower paths and trails where cyclists are expecting you to step off to the side every two minutes because you're in their way. I don't mind every now and then when I'm walking but it can get to the point where you can't really mix modes.
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#456Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not really, a car serves for ~15 years, so even 100% EV market share will mean only 6% or so annual replacement rate. Plenty of time for grid to adapt.
According to a random source (American Public Power Association), the US got about 30GW of new power from 2014 to 2021, and is projected to build another 41GW in 2022. The generation as of March 2022 was 1250GW, so about 2-3% increase per year. You'd have to add another 8.5% (12 year car replacement age, and it doubles consumption, so you need to double the total production in 12 years) on top of that and you'd have…
Average age != average service life though, so what you are essentially saying is: Service life is something above 20 years[1]
The main thing about the electricity grid isn't so much that we need new capacity (that we actually have the production capacity to deal with), but that it changes the load distribution of the grid. And we have no (effective) way to communicate the load condition. If we could dynamically increase and decrease the consumption, then we could deal with building less excess capacity.
At least here in Germany, if you look outside you'll see nearly every new house having a complete array of solar panels and all of the currently added installations come with the option to redirect the power into local storage. This isn't widely deployed yet as battery capacity is still too expensive, but within the next couple of years this will be fixed and all of these buildings will "disappear" from the electric grid. They will (largely [2]) feed themselves and all remaining demand will be time-insensitive due to the available local storage. These houses (and the associated EVs) will not put additional strain on the grid. And, if we manage to sort out the regulatory things and implement a reasonable user-interface, they may even take strain from the grid.
This is a rather long story for saying this: Don't equate "capacity added" with "production increase" with "actual amount of electric energy generated and consumed". The first to numbers differ by a load factor and the last one will (increasingly) diverge, due to net-metering and friends.
[1] assuming that all cars large the same time and none get "lost" by being in accidents or exported you'd get to 24 years if the half-life is 12, in practice I would assume a certain heavy-tailness and a peak somewhere around 20
[2] most houses will be _heavily_ oversupplied on a year-long basis, but will be consumers to the grid for shorter periods.
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#457Earlier quoted context omitted.
In that case a loud freewheel wouldn't do much either though.
Yep, anything audio, like a whistle, shouting "ahoy there!", has less use these days and with tiny airpods being a thing now, it's not even possible to guess from a distance if someone is listening to music. Possibly some kind of laser beam thing that sweeps the ground in front of you might work?
I don't really get the AirPod proliferation. Even if I'm in the woods by myself, much less on a busy path, I can't stand the disconnection from my environment.
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#458Earlier quoted context omitted.
Europeans don't understand how sparse and unpopulated the United States is . Even if they visit they visit the densely populated areas not realizing that most Americans regularly drive across areas where you may not see anyone for miles around. It's not that uncommon an occurrence. Most Americans will do something like this a few times a year. Many do it daily... Canadians too
> most Americans regularly drive across areas where you may not see anyone for miles around 83% of Americans live in urban areas. Why would they "regularly drive across areas where [they] may not see anyone for miles around"...? Are you sure you're not just extrapolating from your own experience?
Road trips between cities or drives in the countryside
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#459I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…
Also, heavier cars mean more tire dust.
Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted
#460Earlier quoted context omitted.
Let me add one more, and I don't think it's an edge case but for some reason nobody talks about it - a large percentage of people just don't want them. That, to me, is the biggest blocker of adoption. Most of the other arguments people have against EVs are engineering problems that would be solved quickly if demand was high enough - but demand is not high, only 2.5% of automobile sales in the US were EVs last year, a…
if you think people don't want them, try to buy one. the main reason that they're only 2.5% of sales is because not enough are being made.
I realize my argument made it seem like I was using the sales data to justify my claim, but that wasn't really what I was going for - my mistake. I am aware of the demand issues, but the question is how far does that scale?
The current market for EVs seems to be middle to upper class city-dwellers who own their own homes and commute less than an hour each day. That is certainly a sizable market that will scale to a point, but what about after that point? What about rural folks who have no need for an EV and are perfectly content to drive ICE vehicles the rest of their lives? What about people who refuse to buy EVs for ideological reasons? What about car enthusiasts who love the roar of a V8? What about people who can't afford to spend 35k+ USD on a new (and base) model EV? What about people who need heavy duty trucks? What about people who have large families and need something with generous seating capacity and the ability to tow the occasional boat or RV for family trips?
Point being, there are large parts of the market that are either underserved because there isn't an EV that matches their needs, or they have no desire to be served at all.