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FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

datacenterdynamics.com

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Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#451
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not only about size, there's also workloads to take into consideration. Take FedEx, their operations are highly dynamic - per day but also per period. The number of packages sent, and being transported, vary greatly between a random Tuesday 15:00 and the weeks before holidays. In such a scenario, with your own infrastructure, you need to overprovision, by a lot, to be able to handle the heaviest load possible, a…

Someone, somewhere, has to actually buy the computers. "Only pay for what you use" isn't magic, whatever fraction actually gets used (across all customers) has to end up paying for the whole computer. Taxis are "only pay for what you use", but owning your own car is often cheaper (even if you only use it, what, 1/12 of the day?) and more convenient.

I feel that Zipcar would be a fairer comparison to owning your own car. You could compare a taxi to your own chauffeured car.

We own our own car out of convenience not cost savings.

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think its more fair to so that FedEx building their own datacenters is like building their own roads to deliver packages on. Your metaphor is a little bit off. This is more comparable to FedEx renting vs owning their fleet vehicles. Obviously they aren't going to be setting up foundries to to scratch-build engines and network switches. But it probably makes as much sense for them to own the buildings & computers…

Fun Fact: They don't technically own their planes, since it would have made them an nice target for a hostile takeover if someone wanted them

Please elaborate.

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#453
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without a doubt, a future generation of executives will revisit and reverse the decision to rent all information infrastructure, but that will likely be many, many years down the road. In the meantime, the current generation of executives who made this decision will look very smart for saving the company lots of money for a good number of years. And they stand to benefit personally from it. They're doing the rational…

I used to work with a very smart man that I'm sure was some kind of secret genius. He's was that sort of tech gofer. Hardware, software, didn't matter, if there was a problem he'd solve it. Sort of guy you'd see carrying a thick ass SQL book around because he 'needed to learn it' to solve just one little problem. He built whole entire solutions for the company I worked at in his spare time that the company once tried…

Good anecdote!

In exchange I offer two relevant quotes from my quote file:

> The empire long united must divide, long divided must unite; this is how it has always been. (Luo Guanzhong)

> When cuffs disappeared from men’s trousers, fashion designers gave interviews explaining that the cuff was archaic and ill-suited to contemporary living. It collected dust, contributed nothing. When the trouser cuff returned, did it collect less dust and begin at last to make a contribution? Probably no fashion designer would argue the point; but the question never came up. Designers got rid of the cuff because there aren’t many options for making trousers different. They restored it for the same reason. (Ralph Caplan)

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're ignoring the massive ecosystem of vendors, managed service providers, colocation facilities, consulting firms, etc. whose profit margins are paid to manage most on prem deployments. Very few entities are doing it all with in-house staff.

There are a couple comments pointing this out, but that's not unique to on-prem: Cloud providers are also buying hardware from vendors, employing contractors, buying or renting facilities, hiring consultants, etc. All of that you are going to pay for either way. The cloud just offers an additional middleman that also gets a profit margin.

Yeah but you pay one invoice instead of 100 invoices, you have one sales representative OK maybe a couple to deal with instead of 100s.

You get your support in one place instead of Hodge pogge of ... yeah we rent server from X but software that runs on it is from Y and in reality provider Z is support so now C has to agree for physical access to the server and now align stars to get all 4 working together instead of shifting blame around to fix anything.

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#455
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without a doubt, a future generation of executives will revisit and reverse the decision to rent all information infrastructure, but that will likely be many, many years down the road. In the meantime, the current generation of executives who made this decision will look very smart for saving the company lots of money for a good number of years. And they stand to benefit personally from it. They're doing the rational…

I used to work with a very smart man that I'm sure was some kind of secret genius. He's was that sort of tech gofer. Hardware, software, didn't matter, if there was a problem he'd solve it. Sort of guy you'd see carrying a thick ass SQL book around because he 'needed to learn it' to solve just one little problem. He built whole entire solutions for the company I worked at in his spare time that the company once tried…

I work in a bank. This is literally what upper management does every 4-5 years. Always some new "initiative" that was preached to them at a conference somewhere, and will now presumably change everyone's lifes.

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ML workloads definitely cost a lot of money. Even for a preemptible VM, A100 GPUs cost $0.88/hr/GPU. That's $624 a month for a single GPU and only the 40GB model. Want a dedicated 8 GPU machine in the cloud to do training with? That'll run you around 16 grand a month. Do that for 2 years and you may as well have bought the device. Want to do 16/24/40 GPU training? Good luck getting dedicated cloud machines with netwo…

Re data, I think egress rates are going to start disappearing over the next few years. The part that’s always missing with these rent vs buy analyses on HN for some reason is that it’s totally ignoring the opex cost of operating your own hardware which is going to be non 0. Sure, it won’t be quite as expensive (no profit margin) but it’s not an order of magnitude. Additionally, most companies don’t run the HW 24/7 an…

> totally ignoring the opex cost of operating your own hardware which is going to be non 0

Early in my career I worked at a company and we had a DC onsite. I remember the months long project to spec, purchase and migrate to a new, more powerful DB server. How much that costed in people-hours, I have no idea. I upgraded to a better DB a couple months ago by clicking a button...

Don't even get me started with ordering more SANs when we ran out of storage or the time a hurricane was coming and we had to prepare to fail over to another DC.

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#457
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, I don't think the decision is that shortsighted in this case. It could work out pretty well for a decade or longer. IMHO FedEx is likely to have a good run before the costs and risks of this decision start outweighing its benefits.

However, when the situation starts to become unbearable, how long will it take to rebuild the infrastructure and source talent? Another decade? Adding the startup costs for any possible rebuild, you're apt for a substantial net loss. So you're probably going to shy away from such a reintegration, while losses accumulate further, until this becomes unsustainable, putting the entire corporation at risk. (The wise thing…

There are always going to be short sighted decisions. But a good design that would abstract away the fact that you are running on AWS or on-prem would pay dividends.

With a good design, there is always that implicit threat that they could move back to on-prem with little effort.

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#458
post #391
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Metal chips is squarely in the long tail of failure modes that you can't really anticipate (but of course really easy to be smug about in hindsight). It is also extremely unlikely the bearings, most likely these are from chassis frames assy not cleaned up properly.

I had some metaldust and it was from bearings, but op said something flakes and then microscopic particles. Particles = bearings, flakes = chassis or even stickers, but anyway just because of transport you dont trow a server into production without testing and inspection. I am beeing smug about not testing your hardware as you do it with software....shitty testing is shitty testing, counts for software hardware firmw…

I heard tale of a banking centre that had a diesel generator installed by a local company.

Load and simulated power failure tests all passed.

Then some time later there was a total power cut and that's when they realised the generator had an electric start wired to the mains supply.

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#459

Is there a website where I can bet on the outcome of this? I've seen lots of companies announce their intentions to move off of their mainframes, but I'm not sure I've ever actually seen one pull it off.

I think the thing you're looking for is a "prediction market". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

Related to that, one funny thing I remember from Robert Heinlein's "The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress" is that the Lunie protagonist didn't understand why Terrans bothered with insurance companies. Are there no bookies?

Re: FedEx to close data centers, retire mainframes

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that properly criticizing a CEO is exhausting so it is rarely done properly. CEO is a very general job role. I dont understand your point with the painters. That would be an operations issue, so I actually wouldnt criticize the CEO of the painting company at all for it. thanks to him/her, I was able to contact a painting company, they showed up, they painted the apartment, and left. I would think the oper…

I think you misunderstood the previous commenter a bit. They were not saying look at the painting example from the standpoint of the CEO, they were saying "Put the excuses" in the mouths of some painters. Also, there's quite a bit of depth and generalization in painting. There are many different types of paint that are better for certain tasks, eg eggshell vs satin finish. Painting walls is different then painting ce…

yes, if I claim that the painters did a bad job and they gave me a laundry list of professional reasons for it.. I would consider those reasons before criticizing. would you not?

trying to use painting as an analogous situation like that isnt transferable to the point i am making though. Putting the excuses in their mouth doesnt even make sense. We are presupposing that the painters did a horrible job.. while discussing how to decide whether or not a CEO did a horrible job. The only reason you know the painters did a bad job is because we are saying they did. the only reason we can use painting as an example is because most people can imagine a terrible paint job. i.e. we do have a full scope understanding of what it takes to be a painter. I am saying it is much harder to imagine the role of a CEO and what good results would look like than it is a painter.

Maybe my wording was fuzzy, but I am not saying you need a complete understanding of the CEO's role, but it does need to be of full scope. I see that reads near synonymous, so in other words it may be infeasible to account for the total depth of their role, but at the very least the entire breadth of the role should be looked at. If you default to "i gave you a lot of money to make it happen so it should be perfect" type logic; you're just being a "karen". the cost of something has nothing to do with the results, directly. Money needs to be converted into something that helps the work, and in that process we are all still limited by reality; diminishing returns, supply chains, quality of communication, availability of resources, etc. A CEO is at the focal point of all of this, and is human. Whether they get paid nothing or everything doesnt change how effective they can reasonably be.

But they do deserve criticism. it just needs a lot of work to do it right. you have to provide some sort of evidence that across all scopes of work the trade-offs do not make sense. maybe the CEO sacrifices on every front in order to provide the fastest service in the business and is successful in that. If you leave speed of delivery out of your criticism it becomes a meaningless criticism. "They charge a lot for poor quality". "These painters did a terrible job.. (even though I called them this morning, and they were done by lunch which allowed me to do a walk through with a potential tenant)".

All i'm really trying to emphasize is that we absolutely can criticize a CEO, but if you dont do it properly it is very easily washed away by the many unknowns of the position. however, if it is done right - it would be very damning as they cant default to company policy or directives from above as a scapegoat since they are the ones creating such things.

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