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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#451

Post by Dylan16807 »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #441
Dylan16807 wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is bad enough that it killed someone; you don't need to use exaggerated made-up numbers. In the example video the car starts turning at 40 seconds and passes the barrier at 47 seconds.

Surely you can see how you might have less than a second to react if Autopilot swerves into the oncoming traffik? I can't search all tesla accidents by 'least time to react'

If they actually do that, it could be a problem, but I'm not convinced that's a failure case that we need to worry much about.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#452

Post by jliptzin »

avereveard wrote: post #344
jliptzin wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are just more disgusting fumes, I prefer no fumes entering the cabin of my car and into my lungs from the car in front of me

Funny, most of the pollution of modern cars comes from tires and brakes. Tesla may remove particulates from brakes, but any mild hybrid+ does.

You are never going to convince me that a car emitting gray or black smoke out the back is somehow not any worse than one that has no emissions at all.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#453

Post by cgriswald »

ceejayoz wrote: post #285
ipaddr wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are traffic cops working daylight hours who pull over many cars and it makes sense to stack those cases. We have a 4am case with a very high bill. If the officer keeps that shift chances are they are not going to want to show up 9am one day before going back to nights the next.

The cop working at 4am might be working a schedule like 12am-12pm and have their cases handled at 9am one day a month. Or they switch between night and day shifts, like lots of nurses do. They’ll make it work.

Overtime is used in some jurisdictions as an incentive to show up in court.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#454

Post by NikolaNovak »

rtikulit wrote: post #176
NikolaNovak wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean... I am "Tesla Hater" in that I don't like the direction they're proceeding in; but every human being I ever met in real actual life does rolling stops under some conditions. Last time I can confidently state that "I never rolled through a stop at very slow speed" is when I was 17, and only NOW do I realize how much of an annoying bum I was :P. So if a car does a rolling stop through a stop sign when there are…

On a public road I almost always come to a full stop, and if I don't I recognize it as an error. That's the law and there are very good reasons for it. It's an unambiguous standard of performance, for example. Arguments for rolling stops based on personal utility are selfish, IMHO, and arguments pleading utility to others are disingenuous--the rolling stoppers say that it's safer to rolling stop because of the rollin…

One thing that pops up into mind - I wonder if there's a difference between drivers of automatic vs manual gear shifts in propensity for rolling stops.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#455

Post by avereveard »

jliptzin wrote: post #452
avereveard wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny, most of the pollution of modern cars comes from tires and brakes. Tesla may remove particulates from brakes, but any mild hybrid+ does.

You are never going to convince me that a car emitting gray or black smoke out the back is somehow not any worse than one that has no emissions at all.

lol who cares about convincing you personally, besides, that's not even the point I was making.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#456

Post by _ea1k »

chaxor wrote: post #249
RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it sounds like it's Simpson's paradox [1] at work. I had always wondered why many people are slow to accept self-driving cars despite the claims of them being statistically safer. I think that explains it --- to make consumers confident about the self-driving technologies, it is not enough for them to be able to handle the "easy" kind of driving (e.g. on highway and under relatively good visibility conditions) bet…

Can you explain how Simpsons paradox applies here?

"Simpson's paradox, which also goes by several other names, is a phenomenon in probability and statistics in which a trend appears in several groups of data but disappears or reverses when the groups are combined. "

In this case, the effect when the data is separated out is that AP is only marginally safer. When they are combined, it appears to be significantly safer.

I'd say this isn't a case of simpsons paradox at all.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#457

Post by _ea1k »

IMO, the headline is a boring and editorialized take on the situation. Even when the data is normalized in this way, active safety only is 55 crashes per 100M miles and AP is ~42 crashes per 100M miles in the most recent quarter.

While the most recent quarter could be an outlier, some other quarters show a similarly dramatic difference.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#458

Post by 9935c101ab17a66 »

maxdo wrote: post #281
FireBeyond wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automatic emergency braking is a required standard feature in the US. Forward collision warning became standard in 2016 by at least ten manufacturers: Audi, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo. Without speaking to Blind Spot, my Audi does similar intelligent things. If you change lanes next to a vehicle or just in front of it, but you have a positive speed differentia…

It's not about how to calculate it. It' about how can you understand what's around. And Audi is not super good about it. Tesla is far better at understanding the context. This year they will switch to FSD stack. The car will not drive me itself. But security features while driver engaged will have a huge boost. And that will be available for any car that was released from 2015-17 with some minor exceptions. That's ho…

You still haven’t provided any evidence that suggests Tesla’s have (1) more impactful safety features than other cars in the same class (2) that Tesla’s are safer in general.

Also, if your saying FSD is going finally, finally be properly released this year — I doubt it.

Your strong pro-Tesla bias and your sweeping, unfocused and unsubstantiated allegations against other car makers undermine your argument completely.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#459

Post by natch »

dboreham wrote: post #120
spywaregorilla wrote: post #61

I find this headline to be pretty misleading. * It doesn't find anything to suggest Autopilot is less safe than claimed. It finds reasons to believe Autopilot's improvement on safety relative to humans is less than claimed * Under both the road adjusted model; and the road+age adjusted model, Autopilot outperforms the average driver on average. Not by much, but its there. * Everyone here seems to be assuming that the…

Perhaps the downvotes are because most people would be apprehensive about putting their life in the hands of an "average" safe driver that's built from software? I probably wouldn't allow any other average safe human to drive me, if the alternative of me driving myself is available.

You aren't putting your life in the hands of autopilot though.

Your own hands are literally on the wheel and you remain responsible and capable.

Obviously there are times when driving without it is way more fun. It's not like that option is taken away from you.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#460

Post by aspenmayer »

sokoloff wrote: post #217
aspenmayer wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? It’s already against road rules to stay in the passing lane when cars behind wish to pass, regardless of the speed limit, or if you’re already driving at it. If cars behind desire to overtake, give way. This is already codified. No need to blame the cars or the self-driving tech. I…

That depends on the jurisdiction. In my state (MA), I can use the left lane while passing other traffic even if there is traffic behind me who wishes to go faster than I am.

I don’t think that is contrary to my point or what I was trying to say. The left lane is for passing cars in the right lane, and for turning left across traffic in cases with no middle turning lane. The left lane is not meant for driving. I don’t think this varies by jurisdiction and may not be a regulation per se, it’s just the norms and rules of the road.
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