Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater • Hacker News Board

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#451

Post by exabrial » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:20 PM UTC

jedimastert wrote: post #380

exabrial wrote: post #374

I'm really happy Democrats/Republicans didn't try to "fix" the lumber crisis along with everything else they've completely f#@*ed. Let the free market ride! This is incredible news for low income families that have been waiting to build residences but were constantly priced out of market.

> low income families that have been waiting to build residences I don't think building has been an option for low income families for a while , or maybe I just know of very few markets where land was the limiting factor instead of materials & labor.

Land is pretty cheap in the vast majority of places. Land in coastal cities is not.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#452

Post by clairity » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:26 PM UTC

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> "If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house."

but without any experience (which is ~99% of us, even if handy), it is difficult to know how to build a house both efficiently (tools, techniques, sequencing, etc.) while meeting regulatory and bioenvironmental goals (airflow, water control, power, waste, etc.), because it's a whole glut of little things to know, most of which are not "hard" by themselves but overwhelming in totality.

for the inexperienced, i'd heartily recommend volunteering for habitat for humanity (at least a half-day weekly, more the better) and asking lots of questions of the experienced workers there to learn those little things (esp. the locale-dependent stuff) while networking with them to boot.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#453

Post by pie42000 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:26 PM UTC

dannyw wrote: post #243

chromatin wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We backed out of working with a builder because price went up about $100k over the course of 3 months earlier in 2021. There is no way that was justified , lumber and supply chains notwithstanding. I respect his right to maximize profits in this market, but I won’t be part of it.

Unfortunately I suspect it'll never be cheaper to build.

You realize a massive market crash is coming soon? The quick sugar high from all the stinky $$$ will dry up soon, and then the market will crash. If that happens, expect it to be very cheap to buy a house and a used car when all the people who could barely afford their new car/house find themselves underwater, unemployed, and no longer receiving Covid stimulus checks.

But who knows, maybe the economy will just keep booming forever

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#454

Post by carabiner » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:28 PM UTC

baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

How much money did you have saved when you quit?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#455

Post by pie42000 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:30 PM UTC

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

Why would they tell the truth? Their job is to sell lumbar... Telling people that prices will settle down in 3-6 months is literally the opposite of what their job is.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#456

Post by coding123 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #395

kebman wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

I bought 20 acres in the hills around SE Oklahoma and am planning on a cabin next year. You can pretty much do whatever you want in Oklahoma. I was asking around about building permits and other regulations and the response was always a confused look and "it's your land, you can do what you want".

Uhh, contact the county.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#457

Post by abledon » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

saalweachter wrote: post #356

throwaway316943 wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Build a shed first. There are lots of free designs online. Choose one with a window so you’ll know how to frame openings and fit windows and doors. Put the type of siding you’d want for the house on it. Then build a detached garage, get experience with pouring a slab, attaching walls to a foundation, trusses, more practice with exterior doors and windows, insulation, wiring. If you’re really feeling confident you cou…

For TV viewing, try to watch the "fixing the stuff that went wrong" style TV/YouTube shows, where a builder is going around going, "Oh god, you can't do that that way, do that this way". Part of learning is learning from mistakes -- you learn which parts of the "correct" way to do something are essential, and you learn why the correct way is correct, when the incorrect way fails. Ideally, that's the part you want to…

whats your best youtube channel recommendations for "stuff went wrong" style construction learning

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#458

Post by bobsmooth » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:44 PM UTC

MrBoomixer wrote: post #330

Bombthecat wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, those people will move to a new coin

What information do you have to backup that opinion?

The owners of mining farms aren't going to just toss out their gpus.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#459

Post by coding123 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:44 PM UTC

dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp wrote: post #371

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Second this. If inflation numbers keep going up 5% per month, the cost of literally everything will keep going up. There are labor shortages in a lot of industries which means employers need to compete on $/hr or workers will go to where they can make more. Not out of spite or greed, it will cost more to feed their family because those costs will have gone up. This also means the housing prices will probably continue…

5% year over year, not per month.

Not what I'm seeing. Hot dog buns to cheese, everything that was $2 is $3 right now. I swear everything has whole foods price right now. I don't care what the govt. is tracking they are obviously not in my safeway.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#460

Post by darkarmani » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:44 PM UTC

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> Realize too, the General Contractor just hires licensed subs, and takes a healthy cut off your nut.

Yeah, but the GC also has all of the good subs. The good subs all have work with GCs -- what normal people can pick up are the "left overs" (not every "left over" is terrible, but probability is high).