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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

bbc.com

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#451

Post by swiley »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #187
neals wrote: post #160

Come on, we all know this problem and we all know the solution. It's probably red-circuits that we are talking about here. We've all been there: you have your yellow belts full of green-circuits, but the red ones are just so much more complex. You need to set up the entire oil production chain for that, which is tedious and you probably rushed it just 'get a few red circuits so I can get my electric furnace'... I say…

I'd laugh but then I saw this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28233436 . Yup, Factorio is a nice way to learn about supply chains. Unfortunately, like almost all videogames, it assumes the whole system is run by a benevolent dictator (i.e. the player). In real life, most of the complexity and most of the waste comes from the system being built incrementally and operated by great many parties in a mix of…

Ah yes, the blackstart situation. So terrible once you switch to nuclear.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#452

Post by alisonkisk »

throwawaygh wrote: post #411
QuarterReptile wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, still positive. Negative feedback is self-righting, while positive feedback is amplification (to speak in very broad terms.)

No! It's negative WRT chip production rate! I have a phd in controls and meant what I said; I assume roboticsresearcher also knows some freshman-level control theory ;-). Stability ==== good in undergrad engineering, but not here. We DON'T want production rate to be stable when we have a global supply shortage! Here, a negative feedback loop is stabilizing the system in an undesirable equilibrium. I.e., the function…

It's not stabilizing if the economy is in a death spiral of failing interdependent companies who can't produce machines for each other.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#453

Post by Jtsummers »

cptskippy wrote: post #445
Jtsummers wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you get the wrong thing delivered it throws a bigger wrench into things because you don't have the buffer. JIT, in Lean, does not mean no buffer, it means as little of a buffer as you can get away with. If you have issues with delivery like this on a regular basis, then you'd increase the buffer size (at least temporarily) and also take your suppliers to task for sending the wrong thing over and over. The buffer…

> JIT, in Lean, does not mean no buffer, it means as little of a buffer as you can get away with. Eh... I would argue that JIT means making that buffer someone else's problem. I was doing EDI at a logistics firm that contracted with Seagate who provided HDDs to Hitachi for their SANs around 2006. Hitachi was doing JIT for their manufacturing, Seagate however was just speculating Hitachi's demand and literally stockpi…

In this case you have two buffers. Seagate/you have a buffer for the outflow based on expected consumption rate. Hitachi almost certainly has some buffer of their own. This is not unusual with physical goods where you have the transportation time and cost to consider (which you/your employer took advantage of).

If Hitachi couldn't consume your delivered HDDs as fast as they were delivered and anticipated any kind of delay/disruption could ever happen, they'd have some buffer of their own.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#454

Post by bluGill »

alistairSH wrote: post #269
mikeyouse wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously most people can’t do this but a family member was recently approached by the dealer who sold him his most recent work truck. He’s driven like 30k miles on it in the past 2 years and it was a $75k Chevy diesel. Dealer offered him $90k to buy it back from him (to sell to someone else) and my family member said “Sure”. So he made $15k on an asset that should have lost 1/2 its value by now. Obviously rare and h…

But what does he drive now? If the truck was just a toy that didn't need replaced, then good for him. But that's not the case for the majority of people.

There are lot of construction workers driving around 20 year old trucks. Those who own a company and don't use the truck as a limo to show off to customers value the extra money in their pocket. The more the truck is abused, the older it will be (concrete and rocks are abusive to the body of trucks so those industries get the oldest ones)

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#455

Post by dylan604 »

mywittyname wrote: post #418
sonthonax wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that still true now?

Yes. One scary fact that I learned is that, in war games between China and the USA, China almost always wins due to superior production capacity. Those $100B American battle carriers and $40MM advanced fighter jets can be taken out by $50,000 rockets/missiles produced at a rate of hundreds or thousands per day.

How many tomahawks does it take to destory these factories?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#456

Post by cuu508 »

aembleton wrote: post #391
cuu508 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, you need some electronics. Let's rephrase: which cars from western mainstream manufacturers are currently the "lowest tech"? No infotainment, no digital dash, no touch-sensitive anything, as few sensors as is viable to still be road legal? And a related question: modern cars are full of tech because that's what market demands. Can we expect the trend to reverse at some point?

Probably the Dacia Sandero https://www.dacia.co.uk/vehicles/sandero.html Go for the Access version and you don't even get a radio.

James May on Dacia Sandero: "This car really does say that you have more sense than money. And if you happen to be astonishingly rich, think how sensible it makes you. It's anti-fashion, anti-consumerism, anti-obsolescence."

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ELX7NJxnUX0

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#457

Post by iamgopal »

imaginariet wrote: post #141
patentatt wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

In UK, where NHS is publicly owned, it was actually policy to have 90% occupancy of ICU beds. If it was less than that, the "extra" beds would be removed.

Why ? What’s the rationale ? How they arrived at 90 percent figure ?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#458

Post by datameta »

api wrote: post #448
datameta wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are indeed, in Arizona. First they are going to have employees train on-site in Taiwan (will get housing for themselves and their families for duration).

This makes it easier for the US to spin up more, since we gain more trained workers who understand these processes.

I thought similarly - this is true if we can have lossless knowledge transfer. I imagine we would have to put what is learned into practice before translating it into distributed knowledge for a US fab workforce.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#459

Post by robotresearcher »

alisonkisk wrote: post #452
throwawaygh wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No! It's negative WRT chip production rate! I have a phd in controls and meant what I said; I assume roboticsresearcher also knows some freshman-level control theory ;-). Stability ==== good in undergrad engineering, but not here. We DON'T want production rate to be stable when we have a global supply shortage! Here, a negative feedback loop is stabilizing the system in an undesirable equilibrium. I.e., the function…

It's not stabilizing if the economy is in a death spiral of failing interdependent companies who can't produce machines for each other.

In control terms it is. There’s a stable asymptote of ‘we made no machines today’ every day, until some external process breaks the dependency cycle.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#460

Post by paunchy »

dont__panic wrote: post #142
carlmr wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My problem with dropping 5K on a bike is that they get stolen

In the US city that I live in, cars get stolen an awful lot too. And not just puffers (cars left with the keys in the ignition to warm up on a cold day) -- I've heard of plenty of locked recent-year cars stolen from private locked garages with no keys at all. I believe car theft is up at least 500% from pre-covid. And that's to say nothing of the opportunistic catalytic converter thefts if you park your car on the st…

Most of these thefts utilize "relay attacks" that simulate the key being in close proximity to the car, using directional antennas to interrogate the key that's sitting in the house and then relay it back to the car. The solution is to disable the proximity feature, but that's inconvenient.
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