18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated • Hacker News Board

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#451

Post by rossdavidh » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 12:52 AM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #419

rossdavidh wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel is definitely the place we'll see the first big impact (or at least we all really hope so). They are already well past 30% with the first shot. I was kind of nervous last week, when they were the leading nation in the world at getting vaccinated, and simultaneously shooting up to new record highs of new cases. But, this week we are just starting to see the first signs of a beneficial impact. This would suggest…

At 30% with first shot they're probably half way there to effective herd immunity. One thing I read out of Israel was vaccinating the most venerable would bring the death rate down dramatically. Something like a 80/20 applies. What I'm worried about is a surge in infections in the gap between population wide herd immunity and just most the venerable. As the death rate falls people will get really careless.

The confirmed cases in Israel is over 6% of the population, and the multiple of that which would include asymptomatic and others who just didn't get tested is unknown, but probably somewhere from 4-8. Even if it's as the low end of that range, you could already be halfway to herd immunity. Of course, the ones getting vaccinated may often already have had it (whether they know it or not).

Since the death rate tends to lag the confirmed cases rate by a couple weeks, I think the deaths will still go up for a bit regardless of whether or not people get careless.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#452

Post by Kim_Bruning » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

Izkata wrote: post #450

Kim_Bruning wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what you were sold, of course. But surely you agree that deliberately making/letting people get sick is obviously evil. What could possibly be a more pressing concern than people's health? Indeed in many countries the original restrictions were lifted or ameliorated after the first wave. However -just looking at the numbers- obviously something went terribly wrong in the United States overall, and author…

> What could possibly be a more pressing concern than people's health? "Health" is far more encompassing than "don't get the virus". I'm also talking mental health and security (food and shelter), both of which have been badly affected by the lockdowns and lost jobs from the lockdowns. > obviously something went terribly wrong in the United States overall There's (at least) two things going on here, neither of which…

Ah, and there's the difference between the USA and other countries (like Canada or Germany).

In those countries, those forms of security are already factored into the "Operating System" of society.

That was enlightening. Thanks for taking the time and patience to talk with me! :-)

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#453

Post by dang » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 10:45 PM UTC

AndrewBissell wrote: post #89

unishark wrote: post #60

> * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?" I'd say ongoing vaccination (after herd immunity is reached) is irrelevant to the herd immunity calculation. Is that what you meant? Though we'd obviously still need vaccinations as much of the world will not have herd immunity for a long time, if ever. And certainly…

> Personally I hope we keep a lot of it, at least a long while more. I really hate catching flu's and colds. Are you blissfully unaware of the enormous mental health and developmental problems these measures are causing, or do you just rate those as less important than suffering an occasional mild illness while you eat DoorDash and watch Netflix?

"Don't be snarky."

"Eschew flamebait. Don't introduce flamewar topics unless you have something genuinely new to say. Avoid unrelated controversies and generic tangents."

"Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith."

Please follow those guidelines and all the other site guidelines. Comments like this just tip the ship on its side.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#454

Post by dang » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 10:45 PM UTC

unishark wrote: post #60

> * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?" I'd say ongoing vaccination (after herd immunity is reached) is irrelevant to the herd immunity calculation. Is that what you meant? Though we'd obviously still need vaccinations as much of the world will not have herd immunity for a long time, if ever. And certainly…

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25898822.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#455

Post by dang » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 10:47 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #148

unishark wrote: post #60

> * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?" I'd say ongoing vaccination (after herd immunity is reached) is irrelevant to the herd immunity calculation. Is that what you meant? Though we'd obviously still need vaccinations as much of the world will not have herd immunity for a long time, if ever. And certainly…

What a horrible comment. The impact of social distancing is far worse than a few minor diseases. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Personal attacks are not ok on HN, regardless of how wrong another comment is or you feel it is. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and sticking to the rules when posting here, we'd be grateful.

Your comment would be just fine without the first and last sentences.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#456

Post by loveistheanswer » Wed, Feb 03, 2021, 10:22 PM UTC

hsbauauvhabzb wrote: post #420

loveistheanswer wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It clearly doesn't though. Obesity and heart disease have been killing far more people in the US than covid and yet Mcdonalds and Coke advertisements are everywhere inbetween television entertainment. Also note obesity/heart disease are among the greatest risk factors of poor health outcomes for covid. Why is there little to no mention of eating healthy and exercising in the government's health guidelines to combat t…

Overeating and poor exercise only hurts yourself. The difference is that you going to a concert, contracting corona and passing it around our household/workplace may kill somebody completely unrelated to the initial risk vector, how would you feel if your neighbour eating McDonald’s directly affected your health?

>Overeating and poor exercise only hurts yourself.

Obese people are twice as likely to be hospitalized for covid.

When hospital beds are being overrun, someone elses life long decisions to disregard their own health does indeed affect other peoples health negatively.