Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm specifically not talking about the SAT and ACT since they're widely used by elite universities. Those tests top out way too early and can't reliably distinguish between the top 1% and the top 0.1% (The fraction of perfect scorers is much smaller than 1% but the standard error of measurement is way too large). The exams I have in mind are those like the science olympiads and the Cambridge STEP. STEP in particular…
I have some useful background here that leads me to strongly disagree with you. I did well at these international science olympiads in high school. To do that I studied for the particular shape of the exam questions. I became friends with many other people who were high performers at these olympiads. Later on I got a PhD from a prestigious institution and I am now a scientist at another one. Throughout this time, I w…
In particular the famous Benbow study [1] that established that even among the top percentile of the population there are massive differences: the top quarter percentile (99.75-99.99) was 2-3 times more likely to have authored academic research later in life, and about 1.5x more likely to have attended postgrad education, to have gone for a STEM degree, to have gone for a PhD than the bottom quarter of the top percent (99.00-99.24).