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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#451

Post by analog31 »

marcell wrote: post #3

I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...

It's interesting that this jibes with conventional wisdom. Since nearly the very beginning of when people started looking at graphs of case counts, my colleagues and acquaintances (mostly scientists) assumed a ratio of roughly 10x. Folks would look at any graph and automatically bump it up by an order of magnitude.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#452

Post by analog31 »

buboard wrote: post #16
marcell wrote: post #3

I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...

i don't understand the value of this multiplier. Case statistics are not an official census, it's incidental , depending on the criteria with which each region makes tests. Case numbers are unimportant, it's the total infections and consequent deaths that matter

One reason is that early on when the curves looked pretty much exponential, folks were trying to pin down how bad it could get, and when. This was when the worst case scenario was for nearly the entire population to get it. I'm not quite sure we're completely out of that woods yet.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#453

Post by dotancohen »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #415
danieltillett wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A prison is very much like a cruise ship from a viral perspective. We know from the cruise ship data like the Diamond Princess that most people had no symptoms initially, but overtime most people became symptomatic [1]. Of course if we are really lucky and the prison was infected with a naturally attenuated strain we should make use of it [2]. 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/ 2. https://www.ti…

> A prison is very much like a cruise ship from a viral perspective. Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled air. Big crowds in small spaces.

    > Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost
    > heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled
    > air. Big crowds in small spaces.
How could the prison be much worse than the cruise ship you just described?

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#454

Post by jdietrich »

nradov wrote: post #171
crazygringo wrote: post #149

Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…

The USS Theodore Roosevelt situation was discussed here several days ago. At this time about 60% of the crew who tested positive are still asymptomatic. Enough time has passed that we can be confident they aren't just presymptomatic. Numbers are pretty solid since they were all quarantined and tracked. Infection fatality rate was about 0.1%, however that's probably not representative of the general population.

>Infection fatality rate was about 0.1%, however that's probably not representative of the general population.

That's something of an understatement - deployed naval personnel are almost exclusively young and healthy, putting them at exceptionally low risk of becoming seriously ill from COVID-19.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#456

Post by travbrack »

bouncycastle wrote: post #429

Maybe the virus has evolved (through natural selection) to not to kill its hosts?

People who die from the virus usually infect many others before death. There isn't really any selection pressure for keeping the host alive.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#457

Post by kitotik »

nradov wrote: post #419
wonnage wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roughly 25% of males in the US 35-44 had hypertension in 2010, and this grows to over 50% by 55-64, an age I don't think anyone would consider especially old: https://www.heart.org/idc/groups/heart-public/@wcm/@sop/@smd... Basically everyone who dies from this has a preexisting condition, but basically everyone in the US will develop at least one of the big three (hypertension, diabetes, or obesity) at some point.

Fortunately those conditions are preventable in the majority of cases.

You are correct, it is possible to prevent some of those conditions in some (but not all) future cases.

Kinda sucks if you have any of those conditions right now though.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#458

Post by bouncycastle »

travbrack wrote: post #456
bouncycastle wrote: post #429

Maybe the virus has evolved (through natural selection) to not to kill its hosts?

People who die from the virus usually infect many others before death. There isn't really any selection pressure for keeping the host alive.

Sure, but people who don't show symptoms can infect more! So in that case, the less potent one becomes more dominant, no?

Meanwhile those who show symptoms are more likely to stop infecting as soon as they're isolated.

That said, I'm not sure if there has been any different stands identified yet?

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#459

Post by djsumdog »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #415
danieltillett wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A prison is very much like a cruise ship from a viral perspective. We know from the cruise ship data like the Diamond Princess that most people had no symptoms initially, but overtime most people became symptomatic [1]. Of course if we are really lucky and the prison was infected with a naturally attenuated strain we should make use of it [2]. 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/ 2. https://www.ti…

> A prison is very much like a cruise ship from a viral perspective. Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled air. Big crowds in small spaces.

But in prisons you spend way more time isolated. There is less freedom of travel, and I'd assume they'd be less physical contact (although maybe more if you considered shared showers).

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#460

Post by Tepix »

lurquer wrote: post #435
dumbfounder wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is definitely a lot of evidence that people who test positive will eventually die. It might take 50-100 years, and they might die of something else, but yes they will definitely die. Plenty of evidence of that. But seriously, what is this evidence you speak of?

Evidence?! My grandma tested positive two months ago. They CLAIMED she recovered. But. two days ago she had a stroke while getting her chemo treatment for pancreatic cancer. On her 97th birthday no less. If only she had kept her mask on instead of briefly taking it off to blow out the candles. THtis virus is s killer, and you can downvote me all you want, but this is NOT the flu and if estimates of deaths found on Ha…

I find your joke to be in poor taste.
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