Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#451

Post by jiofih » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:21 PM UTC

malandrew wrote: post #422

jiofih wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US economy looks more like a pyramid scheme than ever.

The virtuous cycle provided by a functioning market is not a pyramid scheme. Not even close. Pyramid schemes transfer wealth from the bottom to the top while creating no new additional wealth . America is creating tons of additional wealth and how much each gets from that wealth is proportional to one's leverage and one's leverage is generally proportional to how much one is able to contribute to wealth generation (i…

“Virtuous”. It is fueled by artificial growth. It demands growth and makes sustainable, stable businesses a liability. It is absurd to see companies folding barely two weeks into hardship.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#452

Post by nostrebored » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:25 PM UTC

Majromax wrote: post #300

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CFR is always wildly overestimated initially. Various models and data sets put asymptomatic cases at between 20% and 50%. Those are fully asymptomatic - i.e. total end-to-end progression with either very mild symptoms indistinguishable from a minor cold, or no symptoms at all. It's almost impossible to estimate expected population mortality with limited and noisy data, but I've seen estimates from 1.5% to 0.05%. The…

> Various models and data sets put asymptomatic cases at between 20% and 50%. Those are fully asymptomatic - i.e. total end-to-end progression with either very mild symptoms indistinguishable from a minor cold, or no symptoms at all. That's why I use South Korea as a model. They've tested enough that they should have found the majority of asymptomatic cases, and they still have CFR above 1% (1.7% as of this writing).…

We will not know how effective testing has been until we have serological tests. There are a few assumptions being made regarding the efficacy of testing, and contact tracing will certainly miss pockets of asymptomatic people.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#453

Post by kazen44 » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:27 PM UTC

generalpass wrote: post #131

gwd wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember that 100 years ago, and then again 80 years ago, large percentages of men in Europe were removed from their own countries and sent somewhere else; ships transporting food and supplies were actively sunk, houses and factories were bombed to smithereens. In spite of the massive economic damage that caused, civilization did not descend into anarchy, and very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death. CO…

> Remember that 100 years ago, and then again 80 years ago, large percentages of men in Europe were removed from their own countries and sent somewhere else; ships transporting food and supplies were actively sunk, houses and factories were bombed to smithereens. In spite of the massive economic damage that caused, civilization did not descend into anarchy, and very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death.…

> After the war ended, cooler heads prevailed and all wartime orders were lifted and capital and labor could reform, as it saw fit, and as such, the year immediately following the war produced the greatest annualized economic gains in the history of the country

the reason the US was ably to basically jump start it's economy after ww2 was mainly because all of its competitors got either got their industries and cities literally leveled, or their nation/people nearly utterly destroyed.

Even the UK, which was a victor of world war 2 had an economy which was basically dead in the water until the late 70's.

The US got incredibly "lucky" during world war 2 in the sense that it didn't fight the conflict on its own continent.

Also, the marshall plan was a smart policy in an economic sense because it allowed the war economy to transistion back into civilian goods thanks to having a massive (subsidized) export market.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#454

Post by cultus » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:28 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #218

themagician wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In many places being unemployed pays more than being employed. Not sure why the downvotes. It’s literally true for the first time ever. The way the new benefits work out your unemployment check STARTS at the equivalent of $15/hr x 40hr/week = $600/wk. In California, for example, you can get up to $1,050/wk instead of the old maximum of $450/wk.

> In many places being unemployed pays more than being employed. You're being downvoted because you overgeneralized ("many places"), but this is actually true in some scenarios. See "Unemployed workers could get more than 100% of their paycheck under the coronavirus bill" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/how-unemployed-workers-could... It's a perverse incentive to getting people back to work, so I expect this loophole…

We want people to be staying home and not working right now. Other countries are smart enough to encourage this. Only the US seems to be missing the entire point of this whole exercise.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#455

Post by cultus » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:30 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #362

elliekelly wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's a perverse incentive to getting people back to work Unemployment isn't forever and the additional $600/week is only for the current pandemic situation and expires as of July 31. This is not a windfall for those who are now suddenly without a job. But more importantly, someone who has just been laid off has close to zero employment options right now. They might be able to find a short-term job at a grocery stor…

> There cannot be a "perverse incentive" (or any incentive at all) to stay home and collect unemployment when that is a person's one and only option. The economy isn't all-or-nothing. This situation is bad, but it's an exaggeration to suggest that no one is hiring. The perverse incentive comes into play when people start turning down $20/hr jobs because they're making $23/hr on unemployment insurance. They'll want to…

Sure, a few people will be hired. But it is absolutely delusional to think that any significant percentage of people laid off will be able to get a new job anytime soon. There simply aren't enough jobs. Everyone really, really wanting it will just make those jobs harder to get, and will lead to lower pay and reduced safety.

This is not a time to be talking about bootstraps.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#456

Post by cultus » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

globular-toast wrote: post #200

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #31

Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…

$600/week after tax is surely a massive amount and enough to give a family a very comfortable lifestyle. I always thought it was cheaper to live in the US than in the UK. That amount here would give you a luxurious lifestyle. What am I missing?

This is such an insane post. Do you literally have no idea how much things cost?

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#457

Post by standardUser » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

base698 wrote: post #100

TeMPOraL wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?

The time to do that was a month ago.

You talk as if there are currently shortages of essential supplies. There are not. You could stock up tomorrow if you wanted.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#458

Post by apatters » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:33 PM UTC

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

If the unemployment rate continues to rise at this pace (about 7% every two weeks), it will match the peak during the Great Depression (25%) around the end of April.

That's 40 million people who will have no income and likely no health care in the middle of a pandemic.

Not sure how to process this information honestly.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#459

Post by PeterisP » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

doh wrote: post #415

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

This is just a personal opinion, but I think ~15% unemployment peak is far too optimistic. I believe that 50-75% of restaurants will never reopen. 20-35% of small to mid-size hotels, venues, spas will declare bankruptcy within this year. Both employ a lot of people. So I'm afraid the number is going to much higher, maybe even double.

After this is over (whenever that is) we expect people to resume eating out and traveling. I agree that it's likely that 50% of restaurants and 25% of hotels/spas would become bankrupt and shut down, but that does not mean a 50% / 25% reduction of employment; I would expect most of the bankrupt restaurants and hotels/spas to be immediately replaced with new ones, employing much of the same people and renting much of the same premises (only cheaper), and ran/owned by the same people. In such an environment, the main impact of a restaurant going bankrupt is that the creditors and investors of that restaurant lose their capital, but it can reopen after a reorganization when there's demand once again.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#460

Post by standardUser » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:36 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #148

TeMPOraL wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?

Definitely stockpile TP and food, if you're in an area where the shelves haven't been stripped already. But don't overdo it and leave none for others. (UK already into "one large pack of TP per customer" territory, which is an improvement from bare shelves)

Stockpiling has caused absolutely nothing but problems.