Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#451

Post by senordevnyc » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:22 PM UTC

NikolaeVarius wrote: post #14

aazaa wrote: post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

So what are you shorting?

Buying puts on SPY. Realized gains (so far) are $30k from an initial "investment" of $1k about three weeks ago. Currently have about $10k riding with expirations in April and May. If the market shoots up because the Fed announces stimulus, I'll buy more. It's pretty clear that the virus is going to decimate the world economy for many months, maybe years. And watching the complete mismanagement by the US only increases my confidence.

I also moved $600k to cash, about 80% of it a month ago. Never done that in 20 years of investing, and probably wouldn't advise it to anyone now either. But when China locked down the whole country, I knew it was time to stand on the sidelines. Worst case, I'd lose out on a few percentage points of growth and jump back in once the threat had passed. I also still have significant indirect exposure through unvested employer stock.

To be clear, this is all fairly risky and ill-advised.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#452

Post by forkexec » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:22 PM UTC

Well, according to a Harvard epidemiologist, 40-70% of humans will contract this virus, which implies 120-168 million people will die. That's going to impact economic activity and so will a Saudi / Russian oil price war. It's going to lead to the dreaded "R"-word and usually sinks whomever happens to be the current POTUS and their chances for re-election.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#453

Post by unethical_ban » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:22 PM UTC

allovernow wrote: post #191

walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

No one will be able to time this. We don't even know if this is the start of a [global?] recession or depression. If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Honestly it might be a good idea to grab some cash from the bank to keep at home - bank runs are not outside the realm of possibility, although we have credit cards and other internet based payment methods now so it's probably less of a c…

All of this advice is a bit too late.

If you're near retirement, you should have already had a large percentage of your allotment in bonds and cash. If you are not near retirement (> 5-10 years) then ride it out.

I am 30+ years from retirement and I don't think this is world ending, so my high-volatility mutual funds will stay right where they are.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#454

Post by arcticbull » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

mensetmanusman wrote: post #390

cletus wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't think this could still be true but apparently you are correct [1]. Wow. That being said, there are factors to contribute to this: - Essentially zero population growth [2] - A government and a system that propped up an insolvent banking system that likely extended the downturn significantly [3] - A massive asset bubble that we really haven't seen the likes of, not even in the subprime era. [1]: https://www.ma…

Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...

2% of humanity is absolutely, in no way, shape or form about to die. The Korean numbers are approaching 0.5% case fatality rate, and those numbers continue to fall. It's about the same as the flu, and no, the flu isn't killing 2% of humanity either. Y'all need to settle down and get back to work.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#455

Post by hogFeast » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

People telling you to hold off buying are idiots (the majority as always on here).

This is what every mug retail investor thinks. They always get hosed down. They are usually the people who were in cash until 2018...because they were waiting for the bottom.

If you are investing regularly, continue to do so. If you have cash, deploy it. This doesn't matter if you are young. You are getting a better price. It is good news.

If you aren't a mug, look at individual stocks. Do your analysis, and you will find out whether they are cheap or not. No-one who invested at the bottom in 2008 knew it was the bottom. They saw individual stocks were cheap, they bought.

But really do not try this last one unless you know what you are doing. Parts of the market are looking cheap right now, a minority of this is stuff that has sold off recently. If you can't work out where this value is, just buy an index fund and spend your time worrying about stuff you can control (I used to work in research at a financial adviser, I didn't work directly with clients but the biggest issue for most investors are their emotions...99.9% of people don't have the emotional equipment for this stuff...the harder you try, the worse you will do).

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#456

Post by SilasX » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

apcragg wrote: post #356

kasey_junk wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. This is just one of several places where the laws systematically favor the bulls.

You are wrong about that. See T5, T6, and H10 halts.

Because my google-fu is so bad ... has a major exchange ever actually stopped trading because it gained too much?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#457

Post by dannylandau » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

joosters wrote: post #410

dannylandau wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With zero or negative growth looming both in China and Germany in the coming quarter, it is a safe assumption that this market has much lower to go to reflect those new realities.

You: 1) think know better than the rest of the market, and 2) are sure of yourself (‘it is a safe assumption...’) Please don’t go trading!

Yes, agreed -- will not trade. I'll go with Warren Buffet's refrain that trading is for losers.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#458

Post by ehsankia » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

driverdan wrote: post #358

leptoniscool wrote: post #241

The market was up over 30% last year, but GDP growth was certainly not 30%.

What's your point? Those two numbers do not directly correlate.

> Those two numbers do not directly correlate

I think that's the point. Sometimes it's useful to point out the obvious.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#459

Post by lisper » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

On the other hand, it's also possible that the CV will recede in the summer, and that will very likely make the markets bounce back. To quote Carl Sagan, prophecy is a lost art.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#460

Post by grandmczeb » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #354

cglace wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would argue that rules set up by private institutions are in opposition to the free market? Even anarcho-capitalism doesn't go that far.

I think you are misrepresting my argument and attempt to dismiss it in an odd way. I am arguing that rules set up by the market do not automagically enforce free market. I am arguing that rules explicitly do the opposite by introducing guard rails, which DO restrict movement in that free market. Do you honestly believe that rules derive its effects from who sets them up?

To be perfectly honest I’m not sure I find your argument coherent at all.

Can you define what you mean by free market? Is two parties freely coming to a mutually beneficial agreement that they are then constrained by (i.e. a contract) consistent with that definition?