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The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
441–450 of 682 posts
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#442Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's just a snarky way to describe all business investment that requires purchasing things made in the future. It's entirely normal. You could literally rewrite the quote to be about iron and about building railroads for trains and passengers that don't exist yet. See how silly that would be? Except the "profit that is mathematically impossible" part. That's just made up and false. It's entirely possible that we ar…
>Except the "profit that is mathematically impossible" part. That's just made up and false. It's entirely possible that we are actually underestimating demand, and there is going to be tons of profit. JP Morgan says $650 billion in annual revenue required to deliver mere 10% return on AI buildout is equivalent to $35 payment from every iPhone user, or $180 from every Netflix subscriber 'in perpetuity.' Very, very, ve…
Did they consider that profits on the build out won't be uniform, i. e. there will be some companies that go under but the rest of them will capture the profit?
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#443Earlier quoted context omitted.
Feel free to avoid it if you think it’s gambling. https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...
This does nothing to support your point.
Studying that chart might reveal a way to long-term invest in a way that isn't anything like gambling.
Or, I might be completely wrong and just been on an incredible white-hot-streak gambling for the last 30 years.
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#444Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's just a snarky way to describe all business investment that requires purchasing things made in the future. It's entirely normal. You could literally rewrite the quote to be about iron and about building railroads for trains and passengers that don't exist yet. See how silly that would be? Except the "profit that is mathematically impossible" part. That's just made up and false. It's entirely possible that we ar…
>Except the "profit that is mathematically impossible" part. That's just made up and false. It's entirely possible that we are actually underestimating demand, and there is going to be tons of profit. JP Morgan says $650 billion in annual revenue required to deliver mere 10% return on AI buildout is equivalent to $35 payment from every iPhone user, or $180 from every Netflix subscriber 'in perpetuity.' Very, very, ve…
AI labs selling a billion subscriptions for $1000/yr is absolutely on the table.
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#445Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's just a snarky way to describe all business investment that requires purchasing things made in the future. It's entirely normal. You could literally rewrite the quote to be about iron and about building railroads for trains and passengers that don't exist yet. See how silly that would be? Except the "profit that is mathematically impossible" part. That's just made up and false. It's entirely possible that we ar…
>Except the "profit that is mathematically impossible" part. That's just made up and false. It's entirely possible that we are actually underestimating demand, and there is going to be tons of profit. JP Morgan says $650 billion in annual revenue required to deliver mere 10% return on AI buildout is equivalent to $35 payment from every iPhone user, or $180 from every Netflix subscriber 'in perpetuity.' Very, very, ve…
it could replace a bunch of $100k+/year workers.
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#446Earlier quoted context omitted.
This does nothing to support your point.
Studying that chart might reveal a way to long-term invest in a way that isn't anything like gambling. Or, I might be completely wrong and just been on an incredible white-hot-streak gambling for the last 30 years.
"I can win" is not a refutation of the claim that investment is gambling in any way that matters. The more relevant question is: does investment reward productivity (i.e. skill, strength, labor) or does it reward ownership (i.e. those who have capital will continue to accumulate capital)? By your own statement, it seems the latter.
All of that money that you've "earned" with investment, where do you think it came from? What do you think you've done to deserve it? If investment is fundamentally risky, then it's an unsound basis for a stable society (i.e. it's gambling); if it's not risky, then you can't even argue that you deserve that money by having risked your own capital.
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#447Earlier quoted context omitted.
This also put a lot into perspective: > these memory makers have learned a very particular lesson from the unforgiving history [deep drops in demand] of their industry: always leave demand unmet I can't blame them for keeping some reserve demand ready so they keep having customers over the years.
I wonder if this is actually true in the long-term though. If they were to flood the market with lots of high capacity memory, then I think our programs would start using more memory too. As a result we might end up needing more memory faster compared to if they keep demand unmet. Just consider that a chat application today takes more memory than a full 3D game with thousands of users (including chat) + the operating…
They are running fabs at 100% capacity. New fabs take many years to build, cost billions, and are out of date within a few process moves.
One cannot simply "flood the market" or the Chinese would have done it ages ago.
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#448Earlier quoted context omitted.
Credit card processors are, as a natural aspect of their purpose, a deeply useful surveillance network.
In the opposite direction unionpay works at major US retailers directly or at least through a partnership with discover, even Alipay is available at CVS, while us processors presence in China is next to zero.
Alipay is available only through Discover. Chinese processors have no presence in the US. In the same way in China you can use Visa and Mastercard through WeChat.
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#449Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Except the "profit that is mathematically impossible" part. That's just made up and false. It's entirely possible that we are actually underestimating demand, and there is going to be tons of profit. JP Morgan says $650 billion in annual revenue required to deliver mere 10% return on AI buildout is equivalent to $35 payment from every iPhone user, or $180 from every Netflix subscriber 'in perpetuity.' Very, very, ve…
it could replace a bunch of $100k+/year workers.
the big question is: who would pay for those services then?
I mean I love simplicity, and if economy could be simplified to a big money printer machine directly printing the money to a burner, then it would be so simple, that even a short context window could comprehend the economic cycle finally!
Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics
#450Earlier quoted context omitted.
Studying that chart might reveal a way to long-term invest in a way that isn't anything like gambling. Or, I might be completely wrong and just been on an incredible white-hot-streak gambling for the last 30 years.
"I can win" is not a refutation of the claim that investment is gambling in any way that matters. The more relevant question is: does investment reward productivity (i.e. skill, strength, labor) or does it reward ownership (i.e. those who have capital will continue to accumulate capital)? By your own statement, it seems the latter. All of that money that you've "earned" with investment, where do you think it came fro…
“Never lost money over any 20 year period” is a good enough refutation of investing in the S&P being gambling in any way that matters to allow me to act.
Others might be more conservative and I hope they find and choose investments which match their style and risk-tolerance.