Earlier quoted context omitted.
“A system where those with money can multiply is” sure sounds dystopian to me.
It's (beautifully) dry humor making fun of OP, whose post is rather dystopian already.
Oop you’re totally right! Bit close to home. :)
The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
441–450 of 718 posts
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#442Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#443Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because the US cannot imagine anything else. Everything is a War, and the US must always win..
One of my coworkers points out to me every sports reference that pops up in our internal company communications (e.g. "WINNING", "Going to put together a winning team," etc). It seems like everything in the US is couched in competitive language.
Yeah, its no accident that the U.S. is the number one economy, it comes from that kind of thinking across the populace. Complacency gets you conquered.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#444This makes no sense when you zoom-out. None of these companies, be it Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Google, Meta, Microsoft, are profitable in the AI department, they're all bleeding money and using funds their parent company and/or investors, primarily investors gave them. The Chinese models are keeping up with them, while offering the models for free and able to run on consumer grade hardware, and more importantly they t…
> None of these companies, be it Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Google, Meta, Microsoft, are profitable in the AI department,
Citation needed.
All reporting is that they are profitable on the inference side and all the VC money is going to building more data centers to run more inference. (Note that the coding subscription models are probably only break even on average - the money is in the API)
> The Chinese models are keeping up with them, while offering the models for free and able to run on consumer grade hardware, and more importantly they train them for cheap.
No one is running DeepSeek v4 (a 1.6T token model) on consumer hardware.
They aren't much cheaper to train the US models. Training is subsidized by the big Chinese tech companies. They are slightly cheaper because they are smaller (and weaker) models than the 5T and 10T models the US frontier labs are training, and the US labs are paying for a more diverse set of RL data (which shows up in diverse benchmark performance).
> we just saw SORA shut down because it was bleeding money far too fast while the Chinese released video models that far surpassed it back to back to back...
Ironically this proves the point.
OpenAI didn't shutdown Sora, just the subscription version and weird social network thing. You can still access it via API.
The Chinese models are API models and probably just as profitable for them as the LLMs are for the US frontier labs.
[1] has prices for video models. There is a big range, but Google's Veo model and OpenAI's Sora are around the same price as the Chinese models.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#445Earlier quoted context omitted.
China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub
> but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub Sounds rational, but this decision is in a small number of hands. And those hands can change quickly. I also thought the US would never threaten to annex territory of a NATO member.
Offer to purchase imperial territory of a NATO member is not the same as a threat to annex it.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#446This makes no sense when you zoom-out. None of these companies, be it Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Google, Meta, Microsoft, are profitable in the AI department, they're all bleeding money and using funds their parent company and/or investors, primarily investors gave them. The Chinese models are keeping up with them, while offering the models for free and able to run on consumer grade hardware, and more importantly they t…
If the Chinese models couldn't Distill from the larger models they'd be at gpt2 or 3 levels
To quote Elon Musk in court:
> OpenAI’s counsel asked Musk whether xAI has ever “distilled” technology from OpenAI.
> Musk: “Generally AI companies distill other AI companies.”
> “Is that a yes?” Savitt asked.
> Musk: “Partly.”
From https://www.interconnects.ai/p/the-distillation-panic which is worth reading in full.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#447Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just look at Iran. Nothing really happened to USA or Israel. Nothing will happen to China if they take Taiwan. Or maybe the "West" will boycott them and crash entirely.
The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.
The U.S. isnt checkmated, the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade against Iran and their oil based economy is in a free fall with rapid inflation. The U.S. is experiencing slightly higher gas prices but economy is still humming. Meanwhile the U.S. military has not exhausted all of its options while Iran has none.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#448Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…
China is playing the card they have. When they control the majority of the resource they use it strategically as well. Cutting off much of the rare Earth market was a recent example.
I believe cutting off of rare Earth materials was both in response to a restriction US imposed first, and also reciprocal: limited only to the US itself.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#449Earlier quoted context omitted.
I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.
I'm explicitly distrusting them, they're saying they want to take Taiwan and I don't believe them. I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games. There is an element of manipulating your opponent into acting the way you want them to by sending them costly false signals, they have to be costly or they won't be believed. I think we (the West) are being played and the gif…
> I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games
I'm trying to do that too but what the hell is going on with Putin? Why does he continue to engage in this ridiculously expensive war? I don't see any evil genius explanation anymore. It just seems like a mix of sunk-cost-fallacy and save-face.
I think many geopolitical decisions are actually based in irrational emotions of a hand full of people.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#450Earlier quoted context omitted.
More like a draw it seems.
Definitely not. Iran did billions in damage across the middle east, put a major dent in munitions stockpiles, and there is effectively no military way to shut down all of Iran and protect shipping. Too many drones, too many ballistic missiles, and it only takes one. This is basically like an insurgency on a macro level, where small and cheap weapons threaten very large very expensive targets.
Iran is completely blockaded right now:
https://mynews4.com/news/nation-world/centcom-naval-blockade...
The drones are useless if you dont have targeting systems which were taken offline by F35s 2 months ago.