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Solar and batteries can power the world

nworbmot.org

441–450 of 473 posts

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#441

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There was a test on 30 year old panels and they only lost 20% capacity.

That is only marginally better in the scheme of things. They want to take farms for food out of commission in some places to replace with fragile and unreliable solar systems. Imagine installing this stuff on a large scale. If you plan to replace all the panels after 30 years and incur no losses from high winds, hail, vandals, etc., then you would need to overbuild the system by 20% at minimum. This is assuming moder…

That's a lot of guessing though, newer panels might as well be more durable and longer lasting. Even if you lose 20% in 20-30 years you don't need to replace the panel unless the cost of replacing them can be recouped within a reasonable amount of years. As long as there is more space for more panels you don't need to replace existing ones unless they stop working, so capacity just increases for decades until you reach some saturation point.

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#442

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People still build houses like energy is cheap and abundant. A properly insulated house in any temperate climate require very little heating or cooling. Spend 50k on insulation that will last the life of the building instead of 50k on heating and cooling devices which will need constant maintenance and replacement + fuel and end up costing 10x more over the life of the building. A modern house with modern insulation…

In the short term the math is usually bad. Can be a 20, 30, 40 year payback on insulation. For the builder? It’s almost for sure a loss unless he can play the green card. For any individual owner? They are likely to leave before they recoup a project like this. Appraisals on houses are price per square foot with a bedroom and bathroom modifier. Until people start pricing in energy efficiency in homes, say a price mul…

> For any individual owner? They are likely to leave before they recoup a project like this

How do you draw this conclusion? Like any other expensive, long-lasting part of the house, this should be seen as an asset which is “priced-in“ to the value of the building.

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#443

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"Costly burden" is an incredible statement. The utilities get what is effectively free electricity generation. Remember every solar customer still pays the grid connection fee, which goes to maintain the grid. They love to market a "green energy" plan where they pay you 3c for your exported power and charge somebody miles away 25c for it!

It's a true statement and a real problem. These wildcat megawatt-scale generation facilities built on top of suburban neighborhoods produce an un-curtail-able midday oversupply of electricity driving energy prices into the negative. The power has to go somewhere, SoCal grid operators have to pay real money to neighboring grids to accept the energy being generated while also paying the homeowner who generated it. No g…

I'll believe they're serious about this problem when they stop charging TOU customers PEAK DEMAND prices during the duck curve.

They're soaking out of both sides of their mouth.

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#444
post #392

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No, nuclear storage needs to be optimized for 1-2h peaks, if you build a renewable system you need, much, much more. And you have much more localized peaks and valleys depending on weather and such. So basically, you can put some battery next to every nuclear plant and otherwise use the same grid. For renewable you need a much more complex grid with much more battery.

Why do you say "optimized for 1-2h peaks"? The typical electricity demand has a trough during the night for few hours, then a first peak in the morning, than a second less-deep trough in the middle of the day (sometimes with a bump around lunchtime), than a second bigger peak in the afternoon for 3-4 hours. And of course this varies with season, day of week, regions, ... Not sure why you are saying that renewable you…

Renewable (solar for example) needs enough battery to cover the 12-18 hours a day where the sun isn't shining or is at too low an angle to effectively capture by solar panels. This is far more than covering a few hours of load peak. Solar might actually be a decent peaking power source, as it tends to peak at the same time as demand. But it's not a good base load source; it needs far too much battery buffer.

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#445
post #210

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>you can switch the corn use from etanol to food Not that easily. Yellow dent corn is not edible without processing. So to switch that to food use you have to have factories to deal with it. You'd be far better off taking the energy from panels and using it greenhouses to get human feed.

Yellow corn is very popular here in Argentina. Things I ate this or last week: * Home made popcorn: made from whole yellow corn grains. * Corn on the cob: Sweet yellow corn. We just learned that you can microwave them for 6 minutes instead of boiling. * Polenta: Grinded yellow corn. Add milk, butter and as much cheese as possible. You can buy the precooked grinded corn, and it takes less than 5 minutes. Bonus points…

Dent corn doesnt make popcorn nor can you eat it as sweet corn, it is a corn optimized for starch. If you want to eat it directly you must put a nixtamalization process on it or it doesn't have much nutritional value. Typically it's processed into starch process, or turned into fuel or fructose.

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#446
post #301

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Wow, that's big! I'm curious, how much does the 600kWh battery cost nowadays? Amazing that the tech has got to a point this is even possible

15kWh 48V LFP battery around $1800 with low quality battery management system in metal box on wheels. Car batteries need more expensive inverters if you want to fast charge them (150kW-950kW) and super fast discharge them while driving fast (>100 kW). Thus my 600kW extender comes to almost $62000 for vans and small trucks. Cheaper if installed as house battery. The Mercedes eSprinter 56kW van costs around $80000 new…

Wait, you put 600kWh of batteries on a sprinter van?!? I wanna know more...that's insane (base eSprinter is like ~115 kWh, right?)

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#447

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40 kWH of storage and 9 kW of solar panels is all I need personally to live a 1st world lifestyle in the bay area mostly off-grid except for water and internet.

Bay Area is ideal climate to accomplish this.

PNW is fraught, amazing during the Summer, but underpowered in Winter. The best solution is overprovisioning panels by a factor of 4 or so if the room is available. Did a place up there and it's hugely overproductive half the year, and just under break even in the dead of Winter.

From the Bay area or so and down across the country is ideal for solar, passing through a lot of red states that ought to know better. Fun fact though: Texas has the most windmills of any state by a huge margin.

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#448
post #437
post #382

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True, but higher demand for heating in winter is not specific to Germany. In the end, Germany will likely need to import energy anyway - just as it does today. But this means this question may not be the most relevant.

Huh? It highlights the relevance. It’s easy to handwave ‘imports’ away - but import from whom, and how do they make the energy?

One could import it as ammonia from locations that can produce a lot of it via solar.

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#449
post #434

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> Besides direct subsidies, wealthier home owners have often been paid the retail rate for the electricity they sell to the grid. This causes higher electricity bills for those in apartments and those who can't afford to put panels on their roof I don't think you thought this up yourself, so I won't blame you for it, as this exact, word for word swill is mindlessly repeated by a lot of people, so thats ample evidence…

You won't convince many people if you think ad hominem attacks and insults are acceptable. Yes, subsidies are done to help drive adoption. The key is that the subsidies should go where they can do the most good. Money is limited and is fungible - a dollar spent subsidizing utility solar will go much, much, further to decarbonizing the grid than a dollar spent subsidizing rooftop residential solar.

My response is the opposite of ad hominem. It's me noticing and acknowledging that a large group of people comment on energy policy who understand neither energy nor policy but feel confident to both vote and comment on energy policy because they have been brainwashed.

> a dollar spent subsidizing utility solar will go much, much, further to decarbonizing the grid than a dollar spent subsidizing rooftop residential solar

That's completely, trivially provably wrong.

For one, rooftop residential allows decentralization and redundancy. Customers can have their house continue to run while the grid as a whole is down.

Utility solar absolutely does not - solar here is just another source of energy into the centralized grid. From a physics and math perspective, that source of energy could very well have been a coal plant. It doesn't have the same decentralized and redundancy benefit as a 10kWh PV array and a 30kWh battery on a home where the home no longer even needs the grid anymore.

Any rational consumer would appreciate having power than not - We cannot argue physics and math or consumer demands - that's just insanity.

A person who repeatedly argues against this basic math doesn't have the best interest of the consumer in mind. Further, when there's a group of people who repeatedly argues the same illogical swill using the same phrasing as the others, it's a cult.

I could go on and on but I have learned that arguing with brainwashed people takes a lot of time and effort and most of the time, in the end, it ends in a stalemate. Most of the time, it reenforces them they are right and the other side is ignorant and "doesnt get it". No thank you.

On this very thread a person who actually designs and implements grid projects agreed that the only objective utility solar serves are those of the utilities themselves.

The reason why this person is provably correct is because you could come to the same conclusion from first principles as well. To most people, the above statement is a "duh!" moment.

They gave solid, clear, objective examples of how utilities have other much higher priorities than ensuring consumers have access to the most affordable, reliable, resilient power.

They further gave evidence and insight into how the way utilities fund their infrastructure projects actively make them opposed to what's good for the consumer, because decentralization and redundancy would collapse the value of existing collateral.

Now that's a high quality, high value, high merit discussion.

When someone comes and lectures me about how my dollars should go towards initiatives that absolutely do not help me, rather makes me even more dependent on a 3rd party that doesn't have me as their first priority, I dont care about what they have to say especially when I have options available where my dollars directly go towards initiatives that absolutely do help me.

The most generous interpretation I have of their motives is that they are brainwashed.

I would encourage beginning from first principles, gaining clarity into what the final objective is - to provide affordable, redundant, reliable, resilient power to the consumer or to ensure the utility has smoother operations and a tighter grip over the consumer and ensure the consumer is completely dependent on the utility?

If the brainwashing isn't complete and there's a tiny chance of a breakthrough, maybe changing domains would help?

What's better for a local economy that has willing, capable backyard farmers:

- allow them to sell their product that meets all regulatory requirements, to other willing consumers at the same market clearing price or

- destroy them completely and remove any incentives for them to grow, in favor of having a massive, centralized farm?

Re: Solar and batteries can power the world

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

things have not improved. Too many folks here do not understand or care to appreciate the constraints of the real world. Heat pumps are excellent and relatively cheap but have limitations. One of the biggest limitations is that a heat pump's efficiency drops as ambient temperature drops. This is the worst possible situation for heating as the conditions when the risks of losing heat are the highest, are precisely the…

As long as they remain more efficient than resistive heaters down to the lowest temperatures you experience, it's a win. Heat pump efficiency is still improving. You can get heat pumps that can handle down to -35°C now with even better ones in the works.

I'm not questioning the merit of heat pumps. I should know because i have two in Ontario, Canada, one rated to -35 C and the other rated to - 25 C.

What i remain opposed to is this persistent idea that heat pumps work in all situations, for all people and for all time. They do not, and heat pumps create a unique set of problems that we might not be fully prepared for.

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