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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

441–450 of 592 posts

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetically what would happen if China took over Tawain and TSMC?

There would be a brief, or possibly extended depending on how much damage the fabs took, outage, then it'd be back to business as usual.

It is public knowledge that the critical equipment has "kill switches".

I wouldn't be surprised if there was enough damage that building a new fab from scratch is easier.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First time in your life? Were you born after COVID and the 24 months of dire component shortages that followed?

We couldn’t even make cars after COVID.

That's what happens when consumer demand rapidly shifts, and businesses start panic-buying and panic-cancelling. As far as I recall, actual chip fab output didn't really change that much.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Finally, good efficient code is going to get its moment to shine! Which will totally happen because it's not like 80% of the industry is vibe coding everything, right?

Honestly speaking, it has started to look like AI coders could actually do a better job than 80% of app developers in writing efficient apps just by being set to adhere to best-practice programming conventions by default (notwithstanding their general tendency of trying to be too clever instead of writing clear and straightforward code).

They would do well just by letting the AI generate Rust code.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just rewrite your biggest memory hogs in Rust, it routinely slashes RAM footprint and demand for RAM throughput. The effect is even bigger than the typical reduction in CPU use. You can even ask AI to help you with the task, it will use a lot less RAM for it than the rewrite will save down the road.

Why would we need rust, if the AI can just write really good code in C that doesn't exhibit any of the issues that rust protects you from?

Pain is an important signal that tells you something is going wrong, before it goes wrong really badly.

Rust gives you a lot of pain (= useful signals), before damage occurs.

Now imagine you build a reinforcement learning harness around Rust and C. Which is better for reinforcement learning? Impossible to detect failures in the final product or loud and annoying compiler errors that force you to address them?

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#445
post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Many countries would develop much faster if there weren't bombed nor maintain by puppet dictactors from (economically) developped nations (USA and france keep doing this intensively, while countries like Germany dont mind supporting fascist states). (PS: I'm not woke, not even Marxist).

What country would be the stereotypical example you are thinking of? I fail to find any

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#446
post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my greatest concern. So many small players will be wiped out. Consolidation is assured. Always great for consumers to be under the thumb of increasingly large companies.

Are there really that many small players? Aren't they all just subbrands of Xiaomi, Lenovo and Oppo?

Transsion

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#447
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that less realistic than saying 'rewrite in rust, make sure there are no memory leaks'? My point, which I should have been clearer with, is that we aren't at a state where you can just one shot a rewrite of a complex application into another language and expect some sort of free savings. Once we are at that state, and it's good enough to pull it off, why wouldn't the AI be able to pull it off in C as well?

You don't have to trust the AI to do it with Rust, you just have to ensure certain conventions are followed and you can formally prove you're 'safe' from certain classes of issue, no AI magic dice-roll. A lot of people are very excited by the idea that now language capabilities (and almost every other technical nuance) somehow don't matter but much like gravity they will continue to assert themselves whether you beli…

Documentation and testing used to be mildly important, you better have them, but the quality of the tests didn't matter as much, since you have to get the implementation right, no matter how good or bad your tests are.

Now that the work is delegated to an LLM, the test and documentation quality ultimately decides the quality of the product.

Since you as the programmer no longer have to deal with the language's annoyances directly and force the LLM to perform the drudgery for you, you can build a language that makes a trade off between drudgery and quality and receive a software quality upgrade essentially for free.

LLMs are really good at producing tokens faster than developers, so make those tokens count.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#448
this whole saga is having ripple effects even in the second hand market. in 2020-2022 there was a glut of those 1L mini pcs on ebay and other resellers which were WAY better value than the RPi4 at the time which was in short supply due to COVID. these mini PCs were pretty affordable and could be upgraded with extra RAM, new SSD/NVMe drive etc to make perfectly good little home servers. I still have mine which has been running for a few years now, Intel 6th Gen CPU, Lenovo thinkcentre.

nowadays the price of these 2nd hand mini PCs has shot up, and even if you do get a chance to get one, upgrading it with more RAM is gonna be painful

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#449
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can just as well not run docker. 1GiB machine can run a lot of server software, if RAM is not wasted on having duplicate OSes on one machine.

Docker is about containerization/sandboxing, you don't need to duplicate the OS. You can run your app as the init process for the sandbox with nothing else running in the background.

That makes docker entirely useless if you use it just for sandboxing. Systemd services can do all that just fine, without all the complexity of docker.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#450
post #148
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can just as well not run docker. 1GiB machine can run a lot of server software, if RAM is not wasted on having duplicate OSes on one machine.

I think that on linux docker is not nearly as resource intensive as on Mac. Not sure of the actual (for example) memory pressures due to things like not sharing shared libs between processes, granted

That's the major problem. The more shared libs the app is using, the worse this is.
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