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So where are all the AI apps?

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Re: So where are all the AI apps?

#441

Post by TeMPOraL »

scrubs wrote: post #365
TeMPOraL wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is incredibly easy now to get an idea to the prototype stage Yup. And for most purposes, that's enough . An app does not have to be productized and shipped to general audience to be useful. In fact, if your goal is to solve some specific problem for yourself, your friends/family, community or your team, then the "last step" you mention - the one that "takes majority of time and effort" - is entirely unnecessary,…

I mean how else could it be? Some app for Grampa? Junior? The scope of complexity of these problems (which build on tech the viber need not make) is small. There's no serious support dimension or risk. The last step matters. When I'm talking about "apps" as a professional software engineer, I'm thinking about postgres, big table, ramcloud, dpdk, and applications in finance like a security master or system of record.…

> You write "products on the market are not solutions to problems." This speaks volumes and not to the good. You then add "tools to make money" which I read as "side hustle." It's has all the salience and import of a disposable tissue ... what you'd expect people to see that as? Bold leadership? C'mon, get real.

What I mean is, turning a solution into a product is an explicit step, and that step is not about solving the problem, but about getting paid. This is not a value judgement, merely clarification - one needed especially here, where people get confused by entrepreneurship advice and sometimes forget that they can just solve their own problems and move on. Not every solution needs to be productized, and there's no law of nature or man that says it must be.

Re: So where are all the AI apps?

#442

Post by TeMPOraL »

oblio wrote: post #387
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have never come close to running into any limits using codex with my $20/momth ChatGPT subscription every day

OpenAI is losing massive amounts of money and it needs to pay back hundreds of billions. What do you think will happen to that price 5-10 years from now?

> What do you think will happen to that price 5-10 years from now?

Who knows? Unless AI hits a brick wall in a year, 5-10 years from now is effectively singularity (in the original sense that things start moving so fast it's no longer possible to make even high-level predictions on what the world will look like).

2 years from now? Open models will be around the level of current commercial SOTA today, so at worst, they'll be able to continue doing what they do for the price of electricity used by inference.

Re: So where are all the AI apps?

#443

Post by TeMPOraL »

oblio wrote: post #407
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A) Whatever company I’m working for then will pay for it. Right now we get a $1000 a month budget a piece on Claude. I just hardly ever use it. B) price of computing always comes down and models will be a commodity C) If I am an independent consultant by then, I’ll just pay for local inference (I work full time for a consulting company now). You can already get a decent local inference Mac for $500/month.

> B) price of computing always comes down and models will be a commodity Past results are not an indication of future performance. Also funny to say this when hardware costs have spiked.

> Past results are not an indication of future performance.

Yes. Sun setting and rising tomorrow like it did today is not given either, despite it having doing so without an error every single day for the past 4 billion years.

Re: So where are all the AI apps?

#444

Post by TeMPOraL »

apsurd wrote: post #195
TeMPOraL wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is incredibly easy now to get an idea to the prototype stage Yup. And for most purposes, that's enough . An app does not have to be productized and shipped to general audience to be useful. In fact, if your goal is to solve some specific problem for yourself, your friends/family, community or your team, then the "last step" you mention - the one that "takes majority of time and effort" - is entirely unnecessary,…

But the last "making a product" part does apply to nearly any tool, even a solution to a personal problem. I've started tons of scratch my own itch projects. There's adoption, UX, onboarding costs even if you're the only audience. TLDR: i don't even use my own projects. I churn.

Think smaller. For some of my tools, if I forget how they worked tomorrow, or the world[0] breaks them next week, it wont't matter, because they served their purpose today. LLMs make it simple to build single use tools like this.

(If I ever need it again, I can always have LLM fix it.)

--

[0] - I'm not going to accept the insane rate of webshit churn as my fault.

Re: So where are all the AI apps?

#445

Post by oblio »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #442
oblio wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI is losing massive amounts of money and it needs to pay back hundreds of billions. What do you think will happen to that price 5-10 years from now?

> What do you think will happen to that price 5-10 years from now? Who knows? Unless AI hits a brick wall in a year, 5-10 years from now is effectively singularity (in the original sense that things start moving so fast it's no longer possible to make even high-level predictions on what the world will look like). 2 years from now? Open models will be around the level of current commercial SOTA today, so at worst, the…

> Who knows? Unless AI hits a brick wall in a year, 5-10 years from now is effectively singularity (in the original sense that things start moving so fast it's no longer possible to make even high-level predictions on what the world will look like).

I appreciate the optimism. I'd put the singularity closer to cold fusion and flying cars than to longer range EVs.

Re: So where are all the AI apps?

#446

Post by oblio »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #443
oblio wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> B) price of computing always comes down and models will be a commodity Past results are not an indication of future performance. Also funny to say this when hardware costs have spiked.

> Past results are not an indication of future performance. Yes. Sun setting and rising tomorrow like it did today is not given either, despite it having doing so without an error every single day for the past 4 billion years.

Moore's law turned out to not be a law of physics.

And economics are making ever more powerful increasingly hard. We're down to a handful of fabs for almost every hardware domain.

Re: So where are all the AI apps?

#447

Post by scrubs »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #441
scrubs wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean how else could it be? Some app for Grampa? Junior? The scope of complexity of these problems (which build on tech the viber need not make) is small. There's no serious support dimension or risk. The last step matters. When I'm talking about "apps" as a professional software engineer, I'm thinking about postgres, big table, ramcloud, dpdk, and applications in finance like a security master or system of record.…

> You write "products on the market are not solutions to problems." This speaks volumes and not to the good. You then add "tools to make money" which I read as "side hustle." It's has all the salience and import of a disposable tissue ... what you'd expect people to see that as? Bold leadership? C'mon, get real. What I mean is, turning a solution into a product is an explicit step, and that step is not about solving…

What you write is for the service provider, not for customers.

I'm interested in customers. I'm interested in business, which has a support and risk dimension.

Nuff said

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