How will OpenAI compete? • Hacker News Board

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#441

Post by nchie » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC

frde_me wrote: post #414

owebmaster wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This thing about openai brand is changing fast. In the dev circles I'm part of, everybody dislikes OpenAI and prefer Claude. How long it'll take for the same to happen with the normies?

You see, in my circles (me included), people are shifting _to_ codex since 5.3 codex came out. The only places where I hear people say claude is better is: - Frontend design - Random computer use tasks But people trust codex for large scale architecture and changes

I use Claude for work and Codex for private use due to already having a Plus subscription.

I can't say that I have noticed that 5.3-Codex is much better, but it's definitely on par with Opus 4.6, and its limits for $25/months is comparable to Max x5 at 1/4th of the cost (not to mention pay-per-token which we use at work). Claude Code is generally a much better experience though.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#442

Post by mark_l_watson » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC

maxloh wrote: post #349

daxfohl wrote: post #130

I just wonder how long it'll take local models to be good enough for 99% of use cases. It seems like it has to happen sooner or later. My hunch is that in five years we'll look back and see current OpenAI as something like a 1970's VAX system. Once PCs could do most of what they could, nobody wanted a VAX anymore. I have a hard time imagining that all the big players today will survive that shift. (And if that partic…

In my experience with Gemini, most of its capabilities stem from web searching instead of something it has already "learned." Even if you could obtain the model weights and run them locally, the quality of the output would likely drop significantly without that live data. To really have local LLMs become "good enough for 99% of use cases," we are essentially dependent on Google's blessing to provide APIs for our loca…

I agree 100%. Often when I use increasingly powerful local models (qwen3.5:32b I love you) I mix in web search using search APIs from Brave, Perplexity, and DuckDuckGo summaries. Of course this requires that I use local models via small Python or Lisp scripts I write. I pay for the Lumo+ private chat service and it has excellent integrated search, like Gemini or ChatGPT.

EDIT: I have also experimented with creating a local search index for the common tech web sites I get information from - this is a pain in the ass to maintain, but offers very low latency to add search context for local model use. This is most useful with very small and fast local models so the whole experience is low latency.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#443

Post by AdamN » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:39 PM UTC

steveBK123 wrote: post #438

AdamN wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they have a billion active users who opted-in. Google/Apple/Microsoft are the gatekeepers (for the most part) for retail users and they decide who is on by default. The USG isn't going to step-in and the EU won't step in either. So I suspect that Google will lean into Gemini, Microsoft will lean into OpenAI, and Apple ... it's a tough question what they do in the longer term. For business users it's a d…

I think Google may just end up winning on the good enough / cheap enough dimensions as things get more commoditized in LLM world.. in that they can be the lower cost provider given how vertically integrated they would be compared to OpenAI relying on hyperscalers.

I'm aligned there. I think it will be Google/Gemini gets 50% of the generic market and then OpenAI gets 30% (via Microsoft) and then a long tail. The rest of the vendors will be awesome at their markets (Claude Code for coders) and can handle generic stuff too.

Apple will do whatever they do but it will solely drive users in the Apple ecosystem and they will likely just use one of the other vendors - I'm guessing Google longterm since they speak the same language. There's no point in empowering Anthropic/OpenAI to sit at the top of the pyramid although oddly Apple and OpenAI did that partnership but I feel like that was Apple not thinking ahead.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#444

Post by yunohn » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:41 PM UTC

nextlevelwizard wrote: post #351

smiley1437 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, I can't stand ads However, I believe an ad it still influences you subconsciously as long as it is in your sight line. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a lot of investigation into subtly slipping advertising in the LLM responses the way Korean dramas have product placement right in the storyline (Subway, bbq chicken, beverages, makeup, etc).

Subtle things like the guy in CSI Miami talking about how good Subway is for 5 minutes? Of course stuff in the world influences me, I am still a human. Still I have never clicked an ad and bought something. I simply don't get who would. Same as with the super market placing candy and stuff next to the cashier to get people to buy more, I have never been swayed by those because when I go to the store I am always on a…

You seem to have defined ads as "obvious calls to action that end up in me buying it for sure". That's a pretty narrow view of marketing, but it does feel like you are aware that there may be other forms as you provide examples across the thread. It comes off as some form of elitism, where you deem the simplest ads as ineffective on yourself (but work on "average people") - but then go on to mention things like discounts and sponsorships, which to most are obvious marketing ploys too. No judgement, but maybe reflect on this?

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#445

Post by famouswaffles » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:41 PM UTC

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #409

shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

I think that kind of inertia mostly lasts as long as there is no financial incentive to move. A ChatGPT user who is not paying anything to OpenAI is of little benefit to them, and has little incentive to switch. However if OpenAI start trying to make money off those users by adding advertising, or removing the free tier, then things may change. Google can afford to subsidize chat from their other revenue streams, but…

>However if OpenAI start trying to make money off those users by adding advertising, or removing the free tier, then things may change.

Tech forums tend to be in a bit of a bubble. People said the same thing about Netflix and it just quickly became their most popular sub. People don't care about advertising unless it's really obnoxious.

The idea that people will unsub en masse once Open AI starts rolling ads is a pipe dream. And the kind of user that won't pay and won't suffer some ads is the kind of user nobody wants.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#446

Post by cess11 » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:41 PM UTC

I think this article spends to little time on what it calls "user data". It is likely the best data pump in this segment, because it has the most 'regular' users, i.e. people who aren't IT specialists or whatever, but give the best profit when advertised to, surveilled and so on.

They'll have their guard down more often than the claudinistas and geminites, and be cheaper to somehow exploit.

I also think that more half-serious business ideas have been initially implemented against OpenAI services, i.e. most likely to fail due to a lack of proficiency in how to make an organisation work even if the core idea is sound and worthwhile pursuing.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#447

Post by jcbrand » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:46 PM UTC

CharlesW wrote: post #43

shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

> Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. I think you're underestimating how fickle consumers are, and how much their choices are based on fashion and emotion. A couple more of these, and OpenAI will find itself relegated to the kids' table with Grok and Perplexity. https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/08/15/1121900/gpt4o-gr...

I still use perplexity. Which tool is better currently?

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#448

Post by slfnflctd » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:46 PM UTC

danielparsons wrote: post #167

daxfohl wrote: post #154

Well there's the whole race to ASI thing. Whoever gets there first, the world is theirs. The thing will learn how learn, an intelligence feedback loop, make its own apps, find more efficient algorithms, deploy itself to more locations, bankrupt all competitors, embed itself in everyone's lives, and create a complete monopoly for the parent company that can never be touched. Until it goes rogue anyway. (Aside, it's in…

Seems like anthropic is the only company that really believes in AGI still, considering their neglect of the consumer market and continued worries about AI ethics

I don't think "believes in" is the right choice of words. It's more like "can't rule the future possibility completely out so we should at least take some precautions", which seems entirely reasonable and it's a shame not all of these companies are doing so.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#449

Post by PaywallBuster » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:47 PM UTC

shubhamjain wrote: post #29

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

i've been using chat gpt for 'chatting/questions' kind of things + snippets of code

it's plenty good on free tier

as soon as they start adding restrictions / raising prices / etc won't take long to look for alternatives

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#450

Post by ignoramous » Thu, Feb 26, 2026, 1:52 PM UTC

mark_l_watson wrote: post #430

Hopefully this is on-topic: I would hope that some people would opt for private chat services. I evaluated both Proton’s Lumo+ and DuckDuckGo’s Duck.ai services. I like both services but only wanted to pay for one and I chose Lumo+ because chat history is stored with my Proton data and is available in all my devices, Duck.ai stores chat history on current access device. Both services are also very usable with their f…

> DuckDuckGo's Duck.ai services ... what we share with non-privacy preserving AIs.

Duck.ai's Privacy Policy goes:

  As noted above, we call model providers on your behalf so your personal information (for example, IP address) is not exposed to them. In addition, we have agreements in place with all model providers that further limit how they can use data from these anonymous requests, including not using Prompts and Outputs to develop or improve their models, as well as deleting all information received once it is no longer necessary to provide Outputs (at most within 30 days, with limited exceptions for safety and legal compliance).

This is not much different to the BigLabs, tbh.

Otoh, privatemode.ai, confer.to, trymaple.ai are at least attempting Apple AI-like confidentiality.