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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

441–450 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#441

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Who ultimately pays the tariffs is missing the forest for the trees, their primary function is to tax, and taxation virtually always reduces spending. Don't want to pay tariffs? Buy domestic. Tariffs are the single reason (or one of very few) that the US isn't flooded with BYD electric cars from China. China's dirt cheap labor could decimate the US auto industry, but for tariffs and trade regulation, but I repeat mys…

> the US isn't flooded with BYD electric cars from China. China's dirt cheap labor could decimate the US auto industry,

What you're describing is called "dumping", and it's a strategy China has used to varying degrees of success in other markets in order to destabilize foreign industries. It could be seen as an act of war.

Chinese labor is not actually so cheap anymore, many other developing nations are significantly less expensive. But China's secret weapon is total control and coordination across industries. They use this to subsidize target industries for the export market. You've highlighted automakers, but they also target steel, aluminum, and others. To a casual observer it almost appears as if they were targeting industries that could be readily adapted to wartime production.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#442
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%. Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology. You also frame the argument that the last adm…

We usually critique the movie after the end titles roll.

The titles have rolled. The prediction in Q1 last year was specifically that by this time, the US would be in a deep recession due to tariffs.

I can understand that most people do not actually stay with these forecasts. The story hits NBC, you are completely outraged about this forecast made by these economists, the thing never happens, NBC has moved onto next disaster coming round the corner, next outrage.

If you work in markets, you are confronted with the relentless inability of talking head economists to just say mildly rational things. It is constant, almost every year now we have this latest economic disaster by economists in the periphery of political parties...no-one pays attention to these people, they have tenure, they make money from cashing in their political contacts not through actual correct forecasts (and yes, they always say that the thing they predicted will definitely happen next year now).

Stopped clock is eventually right. But there was literally zero information in the insane claims made in Q1. If you did not see this immediately, don't pay attention to these forecasts.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#443

"The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal" Without an opinion on the actual claim here (although I'm skeptical of a claim of 96%, given the relatively moderate inflation in the US in 2025), I think this quote by itself (first bullet point of the abstract) should disqualify this as a serious analysis - no academic paper uses this language, only biased think tanks, and the fact that it's a German think tank doesn't change t…

It's not meant to be an academic paper.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk those people took is radicalizing people like me, who were previously on their side for whom Trump was an absolute red line. Now Trump is charging them extra taxes, and when he falls their reputation will be dumped even further into the gutter - hope the temporary satisfaction was worth the costs.

I dont 100% understand what you're saying, who got the temporary satisfaction? The leftists doing online dunks, or the trump voting moderates who just dont like the way the left does discourse? Its unclear to me from your post.

The Trump voting moderates. Their lives will now be permanently worse, both from the immediate effect of Trump's policies and the backlash from Trump opposing moderates who didn't and don't care about online dunks.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did you feel the need to use an LLM to compose this comment?

We honest users of the emdash are sad at LLMs making it unwelcome.

Most honest users of the em-dash use it in pairs.

I have never — not once — seen an LLM use it in pairs.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#446

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

> Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no?

No. It isn’t.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/09/politics/fact-check-trump-van...

> “She is a liar. She makes up crap … I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country,” Trump said.

> Vance said in late August that as a result of tariffs Trump imposed during his presidency, “prices went down for American citizens.”

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A third-party vote is a vote for Trump.

This kind of purity test is why the left cant win right now. Anyone who does a wrong-think is shitcanned and othered. Im gonna put a theory out that I havent seen here yet, a lot of people voted for Trump because they got dunked on by leftist Twitter, told they were racist/fascist/whatever for having an opinion like "communism is bad", and now comes a guy who wont back down and who legit makes them cry liberal tears.…

That's not a purity test, it's just math.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#450

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

> to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function.

Trump and his entire administration admitted there would be short term pain, possibly a recession, but that it would be "worth it" to restructure the economy.

So the question is: how long does the pain last? And is the economy stronger when it's over (do we get over it)? It's been 9 months so far.

From my perspective the policy goals are very unclear since it seems like they're actively wielding tariffs both as a means to reorganize the economy and as a weapon to bully other countries. Mainly bullying. The intended effectiveness on our economy seems difficult to judge.

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