Live data from Hacker News

Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

culpium.com

441–450 of 501 posts

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC is a for profit business. Why would they care about the moral virtue purity of the applications running on their chips? Seriously illogical statement

Oh, they definitely don't. I'm just pointing out that Apple can afford to forfeit the latest nodes without sacrificing anything important, whereas Nvidia cannot.

Apple can't sleep on chip advances either.

Intel seems to be very competitive again when it comes to laptop battery life. If macbooks again get the reputation of sluggy and overheating that's not great for sales.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#443
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So let's say TMSC reciprocated Apple's consistency as a customer by giving them preferential treatment for capacity. It's good business after all. However, everyone knows that good faith reciprocity at that scale is not rewarded. Apple is ruthless. There are probably thousands of untold stories of how hard Apple has hammered it's suppliers over the years. While Apple has good consumer brand loyalty, they arguably tre…

At this scale and volume, it's not really about good faith. Changing fabs is non-trivial. If they pushed Apple to a point where they had to find an alternative (which is another story) and Apple did switch, they would have to work extra hard to get them back in the future. Apple wouldn't want to invest twice in changing back and forth. On the other hand, TSMC knows that changing fabs is not really an option and Apple…

Apple knows first hand how difficult and expensive it is to fire your CEO, I mean chip fab, only to rehire them when its clear that decision didn't pan out.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this scale and volume, it's not really about good faith. Changing fabs is non-trivial. If they pushed Apple to a point where they had to find an alternative (which is another story) and Apple did switch, they would have to work extra hard to get them back in the future. Apple wouldn't want to invest twice in changing back and forth. On the other hand, TSMC knows that changing fabs is not really an option and Apple…

It's ridiculous that a trillion dollar company feels beholden to a supplier. With that kind of money, it should be trivial to switch. People forget Nvidia didn't even exist 35 years ago. It would probably take like 3 to 5 years to catch up with the benefit of hindsight and existing talent and tools? And anyway consumers don't really need beefy devices nowadays. Running local LLM on a smartphone is a terrible idea due…

> It would probably take like 3 to 5 years to catch up with the benefit of hindsight and existing talent and tools?

Are you talking about TSMC - because that is a single, albiet primary, node in a supply chain, that's also what you have to replicate. AMSL is another vital node.

So many people with "it's just a factory, how hard can it be". The answer is "VERY", as a few endavours have found out already - and they will probably find out even at TSMC Arizona.

I shall illustrate with Adrian Thompson's 1996 FPGA experiment at the University of Sussex.

Thompson used a genetic algorithm to evolve a circuit on an FPGA. The task was simple: get it to distinguish between a 1kHz tone and a 10kHz tone using only 100 logic gates and no system clock.

After about 4,000 generations of evolution, the chip could reliably do it but the final program did not work reliably when it was loaded onto other FPGAs of the same type.

When Thompson looked inside at what evolved, he found something baffling:

The plucky chip was utilizing only thirty-seven of its one hundred logic gates, and most of them were arranged in a curious collection of feedback loops. Five individual logic cells were functionally disconnected from the rest - with no pathways that would allow them to influence the output - yet when he disabled any one of them the chip lost its ability to discriminate the tones.

Welcome to building semi-conductors.

https://www.damninteresting.com/on-the-origin-of-circuits/

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#445
post #92

This article repeatedly cites revenue growth numbers as an indicator of Nvidia and Apple’s relative health, which is a very particular way of looking at things. By way of another one, Apple had $416Bn in revenue, which was a 6% increase from the prior year, or about $25Bn, or about all of Nvidia’s revenue in 2023. Apple’s had slow growth in the last 4 years following a big bump during the early pandemic; their 5 year…

I'm not even sure how to compare revenue, whether relative or absolute, when Nvidia is deeply involved in multiple deals that have all the signs of circular financing scams.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#446
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how true it is or not but I heard that TSMC has the ability to remotely destroy all of their main fab equipment in the event the Chinese are invading Taiwan.

I wonder if the destruction would actually go ahead. What's worse, China having a monopoly on production, or the entire world being set back by X years? In this scenario X is a two-digit number, right?

I don't think X is a two-digit number. TSMC might be slightly ahead of Intel, maybe a few years ahead of Samsung. People forget that the original ChatGPT models were powered by the A100, a chip manufactured by Samsung, which was Sota just a few years ago.

On top TSMC has fabs and personnel with expertise in other places. After all this threat isn't new.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trust comes first. That's why TSMC is a pure play fab. Unless there's something that can 100% guarantee protection for fabless players like Apple, no one will trust Samsung or Intel. Fabless players' IPs are their entire business. It'll be hard to trust Intel given Intel's past behavior, especially against AMD.

Hasn't Apple recently made a deal with Intel?

Trust is not binary — it is a spectrum.

Anyone making a claim that trust will be 0% based on a single thing is obviously oversimplifying the situation. Trust is built on behavior, reputation, time, repeatability, etc.

Trust is subjective and relative. If Alice doesn’t trust Eve, that doesn’t automatically mean that Bob doesn’t trust Eve. That usually requires both Alice and Bob to similar experiences or Bob must have a trust relationship with Alice.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this scale and volume, it's not really about good faith. Changing fabs is non-trivial. If they pushed Apple to a point where they had to find an alternative (which is another story) and Apple did switch, they would have to work extra hard to get them back in the future. Apple wouldn't want to invest twice in changing back and forth. On the other hand, TSMC knows that changing fabs is not really an option and Apple…

It's ridiculous that a trillion dollar company feels beholden to a supplier. With that kind of money, it should be trivial to switch. People forget Nvidia didn't even exist 35 years ago. It would probably take like 3 to 5 years to catch up with the benefit of hindsight and existing talent and tools? And anyway consumers don't really need beefy devices nowadays. Running local LLM on a smartphone is a terrible idea due…

There is a big waiting list for fab tools. You can't just spin that up out of nowhere. Modern chip fabs are the most complex things ever created, and till you spun up your own fab, supply and demand will have balanced out.

Also, how is nationalizing something pro-competition? Nationalized companies have a history of using their government connections to squash competition.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#449
post #341
post #306

the sad part of this is that volume/priority at TSMC shifting from consumer chips that get sold to you and me, to corporate chips which likely will get sold to OpenAI/Amazon/MS or some other corporate datacenter, means that the un-democratization of computing power is well underway.... mirroring, come to think of it, the movement to un-democratize of modern governments... (I would be happier if the news behind Nvidia…

non Apple consumers were already used to this clown fiesta since AMD processors had late access to SoTA nodes for the very same reason. And possibly other types of hardware also had price bumped or used outdated chips because Apple has to build their iPhone/mac n+1. That's why you see some folks actually mocking Apple about the situation. They were already affected. If anything this might force a market-wide fix in t…

I mean sure it is fun to pick one company and hate it, but this is not the point being argued here.

But the point here is that a few companies are outbidding everyone else, hoarding shittons of compute and putting it into their data centers, to rent to people. This is effectively taking compute ownership away from consumers and centralizing compute i.e. un-democratising.

Apple outcompeting other companies to put their products into the hands of regular people is vastly different.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's ridiculous that a trillion dollar company feels beholden to a supplier. With that kind of money, it should be trivial to switch. People forget Nvidia didn't even exist 35 years ago. It would probably take like 3 to 5 years to catch up with the benefit of hindsight and existing talent and tools? And anyway consumers don't really need beefy devices nowadays. Running local LLM on a smartphone is a terrible idea due…

> It would probably take like 3 to 5 years to catch up with the benefit of hindsight and existing talent and tools? Are you talking about TSMC - because that is a single, albiet primary, node in a supply chain, that's also what you have to replicate. AMSL is another vital node. So many people with "it's just a factory, how hard can it be". The answer is "VERY", as a few endavours have found out already - and they wil…

Do you mean AMSL?

There was a great video recently on the company + techniques used for cutting-edge lithography.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUHjLxm3V0

Post reply on HN