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U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#441

Post by notmyjob »

ndiddy wrote: post #360
wredcoll wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How exactly were they inflated?

The monthly employment numbers the BLS publishes are basically nonsense and I'm sure they wouldn't publish them if Congress didn't force them to. At the middle of every month, they run a survey asking ~120,000 businesses how many employees they had as of the 12th of the month. It takes 8 weeks for all the responses to the survey to come in, but the initial monthly numbers are based off of the first 2 weeks of respons…

I’m not sure how the politics play out but a stat that is always off in the same direction, always over and never under, is what some statisticians call “biased.”

You can have non-biased indicators that have error with mean 0.

Maybe a better question, when judging current operations, is how precise the biased estimates are becoming overtime. Is the size of the error increasing or decreasing.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#442

Post by wredcoll »

satyrnein wrote: post #298
wredcoll wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are people so obsessed with lying about immigration?

I thought that was basically accepted truth? For example, the New York Times described it as: Recent Immigration Surge Has Been Largest in U.S. History https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/briefing/us-immigration-s...

I can't find a chart that is literally just number/year, but the chart at the top of https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/imm... is about the closest I can find.

If you look at it, you'll see that, yes, a million or two million or whatever immigrants arrived during the last year biden was in office.

However, if you're not trying to use statistics to lie, what you'll also find is that millions came every year for the past fifty years, including the years trump was president.

There might be some specific "record number" but only in the sense that the total population of humans increases every year so when the same percentage does the same thing as last year, the absolute number is now larger.

And of course this all ignores the part where immigration is a huge benefit to america.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#444

Post by taway1874 »

Arainach wrote: post #205
baron816 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The good news is that these economic problems are entirely the result of bad policies and can be reversed. If we were to also raise broad based taxes, it would allow the Fed to cut interest rates, stoking long term investment, loosen up the housing market (which would allow more people to move), lower the Federal deficit, and improve the trade balance (as if that actually mattered).

It's much easier to destroy than build, and some things once destroyed can't be rebuilt. Trump's inconsistent tariff and policy flip flopping means no one trusts the US to behave rationally and predictably. The fact that the US population elected him a second time means that the US as a whole can't be trusted to behave like rational adults. Decades or centuries of reputation has been thrown away. That can't be change…

"The fact that the US population elected him a second time means that the US as a whole can't be trusted to behave like rational adults."

This! I mean think about it for a second. That is around 80 million voters.

Trump or no Trump, our country isn't the cool kid on the block anymore.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#445

Post by cosmicgadget »

franktankbank wrote: post #433
cosmicgadget wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you saying only those three metrics are tracked by policymakers?

I'm saying those are the only three metrics ever touched on in media. If its oblique I assume its self serving.

GDP?

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#446

Post by amanaplanacanal »

cs702 wrote: post #185
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> on the US tariffs thing, congress can put Trump back in his box and revert to normalcy any time it wants to We’ve already lost export market share. China, Russia and India have already begun building a trade bloc. FDI has already been trashed. We’re already in for a world of hurt. And personally, I’m eager to ensure it lands disproportionately on his voters and donors.

> We’re already in for a world of hurt. I fear you're right, but hope you're not. Yes, this is wishful thinking on my part. I don't want to wish ill on anyone.

Wishing it in the idiots who inflicted it on the rest of us feels entirely appropriate.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#447

Post by kstrauser »

dgfitz wrote: post #407
kstrauser wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ideal circumstance would be to take out a loan you can’t really afford immediately before a round of hyperinflation. Bad time to have $100K in a savings account. Great time to owe that bank $2M.

I currently am this person. What exactly would one do with a 2 million dollar loan? Please don’t say real estate.

That’s all I’ve got. Maybe open a business, I suppose?

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#448

Post by kstrauser »

chasd00 wrote: post #410
kstrauser wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ideal circumstance would be to take out a loan you can’t really afford immediately before a round of hyperinflation. Bad time to have $100K in a savings account. Great time to owe that bank $2M.

you're making an assumption that your income is going to keep pace with inflation to make it easier to pay off the debt. It very well may not. /I haven't got a base pay increase in 4 years

True, but at some point you can sell plasma for 4 trillion USD and pay it off all at once.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#449

Post by chrisco255 »

yepitwas wrote: post #434
chrisco255 wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No party's platform is based on ending or destroying social security, especially not the GOP who gets a broad base of support from retirees. That being said, I've never had much faith in it being around for myself, though I'm 30 years from eligibility). It's possible that productivity boosts from automation and AI could overtime make SS actually sustainable in spite of overwhelming boomer population to support. The f…

Republicans, including some of the current crop, have been making noise about putting the money in the stock market, one way or another, for a long time, and if anyone’s gonna actually do it it’s these guys.

Having a sovereign wealth fund isn't a terrible idea. This is what Norway runs on:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_N...

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#450

Post by throwaway-11-1 »

bitsage wrote: post #256

The revisions cover March 2024 through March 2025. While his policies may deliver turmoil in the near future, I don’t understand why most of the discussion here is about Trump. Furthermore, these revisions are at the high end of estimates, so it’s not a complete shock. The Fed and financial institutions must have already had an idea that the job market could be this bad.

Probably because Trump is currently in power and proudly touting his economic polices as improving things when they are very clearly not.
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