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We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

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Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you so much for this comment, because it perfectly highlights the point I was trying to make. When I was a young person in the mid 90s, I (and most of my friends) made the equivalent or less of what you make now. But we also didn't have discord or Internet multiplayer games, so we were basically forced to go hang out in person and find other cheap stuff to do.

You have to take into account the fact that rent and other necessities have exploded in relative cost. In the eighties I might save up months or even 1-2 years for a nice television set, but my rent/mortgage, food, etc. was relatively inexpensive. Now, I can go buy 15-20 decent televisions a month for the same amount it costs me to pay my rent or mortgage here on a 0-2 bedroom place, and I live in a shithole backwood…

Yep, and it's only accelerated.

> In the eighties I might save up months or even 1-2 years for a nice television set

I remember times from the late 80s and early 90s where my parents would have to save up to repair the VCR, or that time we had to get the PC Monitor repaired; back then the 100-200$ in repair costs was way cheaper than 'buying a new one'.

First house I rented starting in 2007 was 500 a month [0]. Our first Flatscreen TV that we got in 2008 was somewhere between 700-800$ (37 inch 720p).

Then, in 2015 I bought a 40(?) inch 4K tv to celebrate a promotion for myself. Since that was the 'new-ish tech' I spent about 500$, vs the 425$/mo I was paying for a room that could barely fit a Queen bed in a 'shared household' [1]

In 2017, I was able to rent an 800 sq foot apartment for I think about 900$ a month. The 50 inch 1080P TV for the living room was somehow only 200$ tho, I guess that was a plus...

... As an odd contrast to the thought about repairing versus replacing earlier... a colleague recently asked me for some advice; His wife's iPhone screen was cracked. He was wondering of good shops to check out, because the labor cost in the US dwarfs the shipping cost of him sending it back to India and having family get it fixed there and shipping back to the US.

-----

I think COVID really fucked a lot up in the US, vis a vis the unemployment stimulus. People got 600$ a week on top of normal state unemployment; I remember White Castle was offering 15$/hr base (I say that because some fast food restaurants would say '15/hr' with a little star saying that was only for management/etc) to get workers in the door.

I suppose it was an interesting experiment in trying out UBI, on one hand people seemed 'happier', on the other hand it probably contributed to the influencer epidemic since suddenly a bunch of people had nothing better to do.

I also think at least in the US, the fast whiplash of interest rates has had a profound impact on a lot of companies balance sheets and pricing in some cases has been adjusted to avoid borrowing more money or pay off existing debts.

It also provided terrible signalling/forecasting for manufacturers of certain goods; I know specifically for vehicles, far too many people just went along with stupid 'market adjustments' from dealers because the at or near 0% financing 'softened the blow'. Then the manufacturers themselves decided they wanted more of that pie and started raising prices too... Or at best bought into the 'look at EV Margins' while forgetting the point that EV prices need to drop for mass adoption.

There's also the challenge of this 3.5+ year Russian invasion shitshow; It puts an impact on a lot of pricing both directly (e.x. grain but also wiring harnesses for cars, go figure) and indirectly (countries having to send support, even if frequently half-assed and thus prolonging the problem, that diverts money from other things.)

And we haven't even gotten into the impact on tariffs yet... not really anyway...

[0] - Although, that was at a bit of a 'discount' since the landlord knew us for years and that we would be good tenants. Also that 800 sq foot house ironically cost more to heat in the winter than any other place I lived since...

[1] - Other people in the house later informed me I was paying 200$/mo more than them for less space than they got, so not that good a deal TBH, but was cheaper than other options...

[2] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS , look at the difference in slope on the 10 year view for the great recession vs COVID.

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#442
post #257
post #97

> Even in a world brimming with easy distractions—TikTok, Pornhub, Candy Crush, Sudoku—people still manage to meet for drinks, work out at the gym, go on dates, muddle through real life. They actually don't. Everything from dating and fitness to manufacturing and politics is in decline in activities, and more so in effect and understanding. You can't convince (enough) people anymore that it is even important as many…

Though it's popularized to blame social media and phones, economics should not be overlooked. Pay for young generations is lagging and restaurants and bar prices are super high. Public spaces for informal gatherings has shrunk - eg fewer malls

The average age of first home owners has risen to 38. In another decade or two the American dream will probably be to buy a house when you're 50 and then settle down, get married, and have a family. I wonder how that's going to work out?

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#443
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Though it's popularized to blame social media and phones, economics should not be overlooked. Pay for young generations is lagging and restaurants and bar prices are super high. Public spaces for informal gatherings has shrunk - eg fewer malls

This isn't true in the US. Young people in US consume much more of those things you listed than people over 40 did at the same age. Young people have more purchasing power than previous generations. EDIT: Data from the fed and payroll providers show this overwhelmingly to be the case, but just to add some color/anecdote. I found all of the first jobs I had in highschool and just after. 3/3 of my first roles now adver…

A night out literally costs 5x as much as 10 years ago

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#444
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk man, I find it pretty easy to eat any amount of calories. I actually gained weight when burning around 1500kcal/day on a bike during one month - way more than running 10mi/day would burn. That you find it difficult to eat enough during marathon training means your body is at least decent at regulating itself. For some people it's very easy (my gf stays at her very lean weight even when injured and doing 0 sports…

Yeah totally. Eating less than you feel like is hard and GLP is great for that. I was fat as a kid and then lost it all in high school (and got too skinny). Maybe as a result of that it’s easy for me to not eat. I kinda don’t even realize I’m hungry. Had to start tracking calories to ensure I eat enough.

One thing I am wondering about is that if months on GLP drugs is going to help with self-regulation. Maybe if you force yourself to eat less for a prolonged time (2-3 years) with the help of drugs then the body internalizes eating less as the norm. We will see in a few years I guess. I am hoping for at least weak effect like that.

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#445
post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drinking outdoors (let alone at a public park) is just not a thing outside Europe.

Just from my limited experience: Barton Springs in Austin is always brimming with people and Shiner Bock makes a frequent appearance. Dolores Park in SF never has a dull moment and you can buy shrooms or edibles from vendors walking around. Golden Gate Park in SF is massive and there are tons of clusters of people socializing and drinking throughout the park (especially near the Conservatory of Flowers!) Central Park…

Austin, SF, NYC

You are talking about 3 of the trendiest places in the United States.

They are anomalies, not the norm.

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#446
post #97

> Even in a world brimming with easy distractions—TikTok, Pornhub, Candy Crush, Sudoku—people still manage to meet for drinks, work out at the gym, go on dates, muddle through real life. They actually don't. Everything from dating and fitness to manufacturing and politics is in decline in activities, and more so in effect and understanding. You can't convince (enough) people anymore that it is even important as many…

I agree that socializing and so-called "third places" are in decline but we have to ask why. I'll spoil it for you: it's capitalism.

Where once a family could easily be supported on a single income and you could afford to send your kids to college, real wages have been stagnant for decades and people now need 5 jobs between 2 people to not be homeless. Why? Student debt, medical debt, mortgage debt.

The time we spend not working is time we spend not making someone else slightly wealthier.

So people don't have the time nor the disposable income to socialize. And even if they did those activities continue to get more expensive because housing specifically and property generally gets more expensive and that's an input into the cost of every real world activity.

But again, somebody is profiting from that.

Additionally people are in for a rude shock. They see light at the end of the tunnel when their parents or grandparents pass and they inherit housing or sufficient wealth for housing. But many of these people won't see a dime thanks to draining long-term elderly care, particularly with Medicaid funding being stripped.

The capital-owning class wants you in debt. They don't want you owning anything. They will want us in worker housing. We are becoming South Asian brick kiln workers with nicer TVs.

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bullshit. Most people can afford grabbing a beer in a supermarket and going to the park. They just choose not to. I think the real change is that nowadays it's just easier and more practical NOT to maintain friendships. Yes, it's lonely, but it's more efficient.

Drinking outdoors (let alone at a public park) is just not a thing outside Europe.

Replace alcohol with whatever is more culturally appropriate and you can definitely include a strict superset of europe in the statement where it definitely happens. The thing discussed is hanging out, not alcohol.

I would be more concerned about lack of accessible public spaces.

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bullshit. Most people can afford grabbing a beer in a supermarket and going to the park. They just choose not to. I think the real change is that nowadays it's just easier and more practical NOT to maintain friendships. Yes, it's lonely, but it's more efficient.

Drinking outdoors (let alone at a public park) is just not a thing outside Europe.

Absolutely a thing in socal

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#449

Your current self won't like it. Your latter self won't care. It's like trying to shame a heroin addict for cheating the dopamine system. When they inject that needle, they are exactly where they want to be.

Sure, "when they inject", but the rest of the time? Generally no, they are not. This is why people DO try, if unsuccessfully, to get off of their addictions -- you don't like waking up in an alley, you don't like how broke you are, you don't like how you feel when you come down from the high, you don't like how you're hurting your family.

Yes, but will AI give you a chance to get sober and reflect? Maybe once you hit your daily usage limits :)

Re: We may not like what we become if A.I. solves loneliness

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You're seeing people being social because you're going to those situations. No, I’m saying the same social activities are more popular now than they were 10-20 years ago. I’ve been doing some of the same activities and going on some of the same hikes, bikes, runs, trails, and parks on and off for two decades. The popularity of these activities has exploded. Even previously hidden trails and hikes are now very busy…

What you're missing is that the activities you're doing were not the activities people were largely doing 10-20 years ago to be social. Going to bars was probably at least 100x more popular than hiking, so even if you see a 10x growth in hiking, if going to bars goes down even 10%, it dwarfs hiking's contribution to overall social activity of the population.

The two of you might simply talking about different locations. This article seems very US focused, but in europe third places still exist, and it seems the US is having a severe decline in those.
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