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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#441

Post by complianceowl »

bluGill wrote: post #55
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

As someone who is 34 with two kids (toddler and newborn), I completely agree with your comment. My wife and I had difficulty having kids, or we would've had them sooner, but I completely agree with having kids before 30. My energy is still solid, don't get me wrong. But it doesn't compare to energy in your 20s. People think too much about the financial aspect. You can continue building and growing financially even with kids, you just need to be smarter and more disciplined. A lot of people use the financial argument, but I think more and more, it is only a cope for not having had kinds sooner. All my kids will be in their 20s when I'm in my 50s; not bad, but having kids in your 20s is the way to go.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#442

Post by energywut »

rahimnathwani wrote: post #397
energywut wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prisons make people less likely to become criminals. Here is a study supporting the assertion that prisons increase (or do not reduce) the likelihood of someone reoffending in the future. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/715100 Your claim that prisons reduce the likelihood of the population at large is not obvious on its face, as the US has very high rate of incarceration, but still has moderately high…

Your claim that prisons reduce the likelihood of the population at large is not obvious on its face Are you saying that, irrespective of the chance of being caught and convicted, and of the severity of the likely punishment, the likelihood of someone committing a crime is constant? Here is a study supporting the assertion that prisons increase (or do not reduce) the likelihood of someone reoffending in the future Tha…

> Are you saying that, irrespective of the chance of being caught and convicted, and of the severity of the likely punishment, the likelihood of someone committing a crime is constant?

I'm saying that prison sentences are not a deterrent to crime, and, in fact, increase the amount of crime done. Research has consistently shown that the threat of being caught is considerably higher deterrent than prison time, and that harsh sentences don't influence behavior:

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/five-things-about-deterr...

> That has nothing to do with the point I made, which was about people becoming criminals.

We are discussing crime. Which has a total sum. You can reduce that sum by preventing people from being criminals or you can reduce that sum by reforming criminals. I believe you need both. So it is important to remember that prisons negatively contribute to reforming people, increasing total crime, while research shows they don't contribute to preventing people from being criminals.

We need other systems, systems that prevent people from becoming criminals AND reduce the likelihood of re-offending if they do.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#443

Post by complianceowl »

specialist wrote: post #440
Justsignedup wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a kid at 22, I am now 40 with a kid going to college. I can echo this exact sentiment. However at 22 I wasn't the experienced person I am today. Nor was I stable, nor could I jump on opportunities like my peers could. If having a child in your early 20s would mean not losing opportunities in progressing in a career, at least with enough free childcare and food to feed the children, people could be more inclined…

Was also a young parent. Empathetic yes to all. Securing stable health insurance dictated most of my career decisions. I was captive to turrible gigs, had to pass on a lot of opportunities. Want to revitalize our society? #1 is Medicare for All. More startups, more risk taking & innovation, higher birth rate, etc. #2 is childcare. Cheap, plentiful, good quality. #3 is housing. Again: Cheap, plentiful, good quality. P…

I think willing to take a cut in one's standard of living so that the mother stays at home and raises the children would revitalize society beyond any of the above-mentioned options.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#444

Post by xattt »

zellyn wrote: post #399
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

If you do decide to wait longer, be aware that there are hilarious differences geographically. When we had our first kid in SF, the other dads pushing swings were around the same age as me (fortyish). Moving back to Georgia… oh my god, the parents of kids my second kid’s age were babies! (There are “graybeard dad” Facebook groups etc., but the average vibe is way different)

Even regionally. My kid goes to an urban school where the majority of parents are those with at least an undergraduate degree, and are at least my age.

Family friends have kids in a rural school with parents being those that haven’t moved 10 miles from the community where they grew up and small-town soap opera dynamics.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#445

Post by Spooky23 »

pc86 wrote: post #357
Spooky23 wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? Maybe that’s when you saw people on TV for the first time. High school was advanced education in 2000. Basic education ended around grade 6-8.

No reasonable person considered high school advanced education in the 70's let alone 2000. If 85%+ of people get it for half a century, it is by definition not advanced. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Grad-ra...

Whoops, that was a typo, i meant 1900 :)

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#446

Post by georgeecollins »

bluGill wrote: post #55
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

I think having kids before you are 30 is fine, but we had our second kid when my wife was 36 and it was also fine. I think when you get in your forties as a man or late thirties as a woman it can be tougher.

Also, adopt. Before I was a parent I thought of a child as "mine" because of biology. Really you see that you shape people and form a connection with them because they are part of your family.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#447

Post by tenebrisalietum »

lo_zamoyski wrote: post #343
frollogaston wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is exactly something to discuss early. My wife and I were on the same page from earlier in dating about having kids in our 20s.

Absolutely. It serves as a filter, if people are being honest. It also highlights the bizarre dating culture and view of life we've adopted. This dating culture has produced a good deal of rotten fruit. The ultimate purpose of dating is to meet your future spouse. We're turned it into some kind of senseless sexual escapade, and this has poisoned the relations between men and women. It makes them exploitative and dehu…

Sexual escapades are only senseless if you rigidly believe sex is only for specific things, and adopt a model where human beings are property and can be owned. While sex does have a biological purpose, that in itself doesn't mean it has to be limited to that purpose.

Sex is fun and most sex doesn't lead to procreation, nor is intended to. The last 50 times I've had sex, me and partner(s) involved have had no intention of making a baby, and that's fine. Nature/God agrees with me, because the number of children most families have are typically far less than the number of times the parents have had sex.

There's a lot of times people want sex and don't want it to be some big life changing event. I won't marry someone like that.

> This creates a mindset not unlike that of a drug user who is obsessed with getting another hit

Everyone wants pleasurable things with a minimum of bad or unwanted consequences. This is called being smart and using your God-given brain and free will. This doesn't make anyone a drug user. This puritanical war on pleasure can only serve authoritarian and anti-human ends, which is often an explicit or implicit base of forms of slavery/indenture, and is the main reason why I strongly advocate against it.

> The psychophysical reality of sexual intercourse is much more than some passing physical pleasure.

Anything that feels really good will beget attachment because you want more of it. When it's attached to a person, you're going to want to be around that person more. And of course, human beings are naked apes with courtship and bonding instincts and all that good stuff. But people bond over things other than sex, and any good relationship or marriage will have many bonds other than the sexual one. Indeed, marriages where sex is the only reason they got together are as hollow as this drug user strawman you trotted out.

> Masturbation is even worse.

People who become overly dependent on parasocial relationships with fictional anything, whether that's a harem, video game, movie star, person mentioned in a religious book, etc. need help. I masturbate from time to time and it does not give me any problems, but I'm not addicted to it. But I would rather lonely people masturbate themselves into a coma than sexually assault others simply because of people who will say masturbation is wrong but at the same time won't consider other things like legalizing prostitution.

> they don't want to make the cultural changes necessary to restore normalcy.

I don't. The old way sucked. Robots and AI should be doing all our menial work, and the possibilities for pleasure are endless. The people who just can't exist without an employer giving them meaning because they never got enough approval from their daddies need to move to another planet.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#448

Post by ath3nd »

pc86 wrote: post #359
ath3nd wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the ideal set up (it would have been so for me) would have been for both parents to work part time. Beautifully said, very progressive also! I am a big fan of the 4-day work week (for the same amount of money as 5 days), it's been transformative for my life. The extra energy and focus you get from that 1 day translates to higher productivity in the 4 days where you do work. Sadly, the current "squeeze em',…

Who wouldn't be a fan of 80% of the work for 100% of the pay? It's a built-in raise equal to or greater than what you'd get from changing jobs, without the switch in seniority or experience.

> Who wouldn't be a fan of 80% of the work for 100% of the pay?

If you, as an employer, want a motivated, energetic workforce who are not slacking off, it's also in your interest to give that opportunity to your employees, as multiple experiments have shown that 4-day work results in increased productivity and employee retention.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#449

Post by bombcar »

meindnoch wrote: post #425
zellyn wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do decide to wait longer, be aware that there are hilarious differences geographically. When we had our first kid in SF, the other dads pushing swings were around the same age as me (fortyish). Moving back to Georgia… oh my god, the parents of kids my second kid’s age were babies! (There are “graybeard dad” Facebook groups etc., but the average vibe is way different)

>the parents of kids my second kid’s age were babies Babies can have kids?

A parent who’s forty with a newborn will feel that the 20-year old with a newborn is “babies havin’ babies” as Strong bad would say.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#450

Post by WarOnPrivacy »

DiggyJohnson wrote: post #386
WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For myself , I wish I made this happen in my mid 20s. I had to move back home to take care of a family member (fck cancer) and I suffered various personal setbacks due to it. I hear ya. My spouse developed mental illness after sons 4,5 were born. A spouse can sabotage a lot of things when they set their mind to it - and their mind never stops. Not even at 3am. The first year was hard. The second was harder. After 5…

What was the nature of her illness and was it directly related to the kids? If you don’t mind me asking, of course. That sounds like a very challenging thing all the best

> What was the nature of her illness

Psychosis, bipolar, BPD, NPD, pretty much all the *PDs. She switched it up.

> was it directly related to the kids

As in stemmed from? No.

As far as challenge related to the kids, it was 1) keeping the them as safe as possible when she was not and 2) proving some semblance of parenting. Both were difficult-to-impossible, given that kids are trapped at home, thanks to eradication of free range areas.

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