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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#441

Post by aleph_minus_one »

rat87 wrote: post #323
consumer451 wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My main concern is that de-globalizing trade will remove a large barrier for real kinetic war. Bombing your economic partner is generally a dumb move, and that has been pretty nice for humanity in the last ~50 years.

I think it won't change much because frankly the peace trade theory has not worked out very well. I think it was first formulated around WW1 and didn't stop it or WW2. Most modern wars don't make financial sense when accounting for everything but they are still fought. Often over stupid reasons. For example Russia invaded Ukraine despite trade partnership with Ukraine and EU. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_…

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory has a better run

I don't think so: for example the Weimar Republic is a counterexample. Or a modern example is the current war between Ukraine and Russia (both are democracies even though in Russia some particular president and party has a lot of influence). Both of these examples show that even in a democratic country under specific circumstances it can happen that a particular group or party can gain lots of power.

--

If you want to see another interesting "peace theory", consider the madman theory:

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

It basically says that if a country has access to atomic weapons, and the president or person in power radiates the image that he is sufficiently "mad" that in case of an aggression against the country they are willing to use them and escalate the conflict into a global nuclear holocaust, other stakeholders will strongly attempt not to upset this country, i.e. seek more peaceful and diplomatic solutions with this country.

This theory explains well why the USA have not yet invaded North Korea and are hesitant to invade Iran.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#442

Post by aleph_minus_one »

notTooFarGone wrote: post #439
aleph_minus_one wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. This is not absurd: 3D printing is a possible (next) stepping stone towards enabling this long-time dream. The problem rather is (as very, very often) the huge amount of red tape and regulations that prevents individuals from experimenting with such ideas and bringing them forth. So, if y…

You act like you should be able to 3D print a car and be allowed to drive it. Let's talk about seatbelts - is this another of those damn regulations????! How about airplane security? I should be allowed to build a helicopter and fly to new york! God damn gubbernment. On the day any of that is allowed I built my hut and leave society for good.

> You act like you should be able to 3D print a car and be allowed to drive it.

> I should be allowed to build a helicopter and fly to new york!

To me, both of these suggestions don't sound like bad ideas that you make out of them. :-)

EDIT: Yes, I am a hacker.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#443

Post by aleph_minus_one »

dgfl wrote: post #436
LastTrain wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The wikipedia article places it as 16th to 19th century which is a longer time period than Globalism was popular. When did globalism stop being popular?

Did you happen to miss recent US news?

> > When did globalism stop being popular?

> Did you happen to miss recent US news?

1. Not every reader lives in the USA

2. In my observation (not in the USA) in the last years (and also months/weeks) it has rather been a strong veering round back and forth of "globalism is good" vs "globalism is bad" with no clear observable direction at which side the pendulum will stop.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#444

Post by munksbeer »

didericis wrote: post #431
munksbeer wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, I did watch the video. He does make a lot of points which sound plausible to a casual like myself. I'm still sceptical. It's pretty clear that there is real distaste for Europe in the MAGA sphere. I really find it hard to believe that this is all an act, a ploy, to boost Europe's own economy. Everything I've witnessed about MAGA suggests this type of long range thinking is just a coping wish. I think it's much si…

You are correct that there is a lot of distaste for Europe within the MAGA base. Although it’s important to note most of the distaste is about subsidizing their defense so they can have welfare states at the expense of US taxpayers, and a distaste for EU leadership. A lot of MAGA are friendly with other populist movements in Europe. Again, I don’t think it’s an either or, and I don’t believe this is a ploy. The desir…

The US didn't get to be the worlds global superpower out of nowhere. You formed alliances in the west and have pushed your global economic agenda for what, seven decades, with Europe going along with it (along with many other countries), including fighting in wars the US pushed for. That is what you got in return for your military backing. The US also didn't get into the cold war because of Europe,.

MAGA won't sell that though, it needs a different narrative. And this is the narrative it feels like this little exchange is pushing too, though forgive me if I'm misinterpreting you.

MAGA is acting as though the world isn't buying trillions of dollars worth of its services every year, that it hasn't controlled the global economic policy for decades, enriching itself in the process. Nope, MAGA is now claiming victim status.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#445

Post by markus_zhang »

UncleMeat wrote: post #408
markus_zhang wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? I said nothing about murder.

I'm curious what your illegal and disorderly path is specifically.

Right now it seems to be pretty disorderly, not sure about illegal but aren't a lot of things Trump did seem to zero challenge from Congress? I could be wrong definitely.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#446

Post by BobaFloutist »

simgt wrote: post #405
BobaFloutist wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes urbanism bad?

Car centricity is the main culprit [0] https://m.youtube.com/shorts/0dKrUE_O0VE [1] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oHlpmxLTxpw [2] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TheOkz8oF_I

As opposed to the beautiful car-free utopias found in suburbia and the countryside?

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#447

Post by ativzzz »

hayst4ck wrote: post #205

These tariffs are a radical action that rhymes with the "Four pests" campaign of Mao Zedong's China which led to one of the worst famines in human history. Defenders of these tariffs say they might bring back manufacturing or say they are a response to some bad effect of the current state of America... They don't accept what the experts say, but what their authority says, and their authority says that these will brin…

If there's anything I learned from history, is that people don't care about history and don't learn from it. We care about what's happening now, not what happened 100 years ago

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#448

Post by blululu »

mmooss wrote: post #282
blululu wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2020 during the largest public health crisis in a century, non-woven respiratory masks were found to be an effective intervention. The country that manufactured 90% of the world's respiratory masks took care of itself first and foremost at the expense of all other countries. You can't blame them for doing so, but you can avoid this scenario repeating itself in the future.

> The country that manufactured 90% of the world's respiratory masks took care of itself first and foremost at the expense of all other countries. You can't blame them for doing so Yes you can. People have a moral obligation to help others, including when they have to sacrifice, and they do it all the time. People make sacrifices all the time for the greater good. In fact, many of the extreme self-interest capitalist…

Fair enough. During the pandemic there was an acute shortage of medical supplies and there were really not enough to go around for everyone. It would be a tough sell to convince the person who is actually making these supplies to put the needs to an arbitrary person above the needs of their immediate community. I didn't really enjoy having to be the one to go without on that round, but I would have been pretty angry in a hypothetical situation where my neighbor has needed medical supplies and refuses to provide them to the local fire department because he is trying to sell them to a foreign country for the greatest possible profit. In any case I don't really hold much personal animosity to the people and organizations who made these decisions during the pandemic. I do however want to make sure that we can avoid repeating that the next time around.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#449

Post by fsagx »

rtkwe wrote: post #300
fsagx wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lots of people bought $3000 apple products more than 20 years ago: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2001/08/24Apple-Offers-Aggres... more than $5000 in 2025 dollars!

Have much in the way of sales numbers for that? Smells like a halo product more than a major sales mover.

I don't -- Just my recollections FWIW. I remember when they were hot. I remember seeing them around. I still have mine!

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#450

Post by Teever »

jopsen wrote: post #342
Teever wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have all the allies in the world but if none of you have weapons and the means to make them you won't win.

Despite the popular narrative Europe still has a sizeable arms industry. What Europe doesn't is the ability to quickly agree on anything. But when America calls consensus can be reached quickly. At times 40% of the contingent in Afghanistan were allies.

Does America or Europe have the industrial capacity to produce enough anti-ship missiles to stop China from taking Taiwan?

Does America or Europe have the industrial capacity to produce enough ships to stop China from taking Taiwan?

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