US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU • Hacker News Board

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#441

Post by 93po » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:46 AM UTC

jorge-d wrote: post #358

mcoliver wrote: post #92

Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh... https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...

It's even worse, they literally got their formula from a llm model (probably Grok?) => https://bsky.app/profile/dansinker.com/post/3llunnyfeoj2v "To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4. Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al.,…

It is really silly to say that because an LLM gave a similar approach a single time and someone took a screencap of it without full context, that Elon and Trump are sitting in the whitehouse asking Grok what to. This level of hyperbole is why reading about anything to do with the two of them is really exhausting.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#442

Post by mherrmann » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:47 AM UTC

Can this be an arbitrage opportunity?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#443

Post by sneak » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:48 AM UTC

Meanwhile the options level upgrade I asked e*trade for at 8am (before the 4pm announcement) so I can buy puts is still pending at 8am the following day.

TIL one should configure brokerage accounts well in advance of events.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#444

Post by 93po » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:49 AM UTC

ryzvonusef wrote: post #253

When americans are angry, they tend to spread that frustration with a shovel on everyone. My country as been hot by 29% tariffs.. I can't say what we did to upset americans, given that we do not compete with any american industry in any substantial way, bu we are bearing the wrath of the wounded american blue collar worker regardless. I wonder what the net effect of tariffs will be in an year, americans are so used t…

That's a human trait and not really an American one, though I am definitely not an apologist for American-specific problems

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#445

Post by petesergeant » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:51 AM UTC

iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing ... I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though.

I feel like this could be used to steel-man the Trump administration's plan, though, should you want to. The best-case outcome here for America is it forces large capital investment in automated manufacturing facilities based in the US by making manufacturing that relies on cheap overseas labour expensive enough that the investment is worth it.

I'm doubtful, but, in the unlikely event it works like that, and this comes online in the next couple of years without causing a catastrophic wipeout in the mid-terms, Trump will look like a genius.

IMO it would have been much smarter to explicitly incentivize this with tax breaks and start with small tariffs that would ramp up a little bit each month, if it's the plan, and not just incoherent policy making.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#446

Post by smokel » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:53 AM UTC

danpalmer wrote: post #235

iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

I heard a great story from a colleague that worked in fashion development in the UK. There's a big push for "Made in the UK" clothing and consumers associate it with quality, but the items are lower quality , because the UK lost its garment manufacturing skills 50+ years ago. Meanwhile Asia has gained those skills, so if you buy clothes from China they are likely higher quality than you'd get here and cheaper . This…

This has probably little to do with skill being lost, and more with how little one gets paid to do this kind of work. Skilled people can get jobs in other fields that earn a lot more.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#447

Post by nemo44x » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:54 AM UTC

Vietnam and Israel already agreed to remove tariffs on USA imports. Thailand is opening negotiations today.

It’s simple - remove import duty from USA goods and the USA will remove tariffs. Reciprocal trade.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#448

Post by dexcs » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:54 AM UTC

And as tech guys we always wonder if the world is a better place with AI Agents taking over. My guess is that even gpt-3 would have come up with a better solution than this.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#449

Post by atmosx » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:54 AM UTC

hayst4ck wrote: post #297

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

To add to the comment: If you want to be the capital of an empire, you have to act like it—like Troy, Rome, or Constantinople—meaning you run deficits and play buyer of last resort. When you are no longer that, the empire has indeed collapsed.

Relate: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1998/08/18/t...

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#450

Post by hmmm-i-wonder » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 11:54 AM UTC

apparent wrote: post #129

TrackerFF wrote: post #62

From what I understand, de minimis exemption has also been removed. That is a huge, huge deal. It effectively means that all goods imported from China will be slapped with a 30% import tax, as soon as said goods arrive the US border / customs. Usually what happens then, is that the courier will pay that tax, and then bill the recipient later on - as well as charge some fee/fees for the work done. This is why in some…

So is AMZN stock up?

Down 6% in premarket, will have to wait and see but likely wont help them much as tariffs will impact a significant amount of their products regardless.