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OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they accomplish AGI first, they will be the world’s most valuable company, by far. If they fall short of AGI there are still many ways a more limited but still quite useful AI might make them worth far more than Meta. I don’t know how to handicap the odds of them doing either of these at all, but they would seem to have the best chance at it of anyone right now.

Aren't they proving the opposite of your proposed alternative already? A limited AI is not making them money and since every new model becomes obsolete within a year, they can't just stop and enjoy the benefits of the current model.

The fact that it isn’t making money now isn’t indicative it never will. I can think of a lot of very large tech companies who people once said the same about.

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but they generally shoot for 5-10x. So they are betting on OpenAI growing gross revenue like 20x assuming their costs stay the same.

The later the investment stage, the lower the expected multiple, but also I don't know that 20x is a crazy expectation to have about OpenAI? It might not happen , but people really fixated on that "might", which is not what venture investing is about.

20x isn't crazy, but its what they need just to reach parity P/E with Google (assuming their costs remain flat). In order for the investment to make sense they have to grow much much more than that to account for the extra risk, otherwise you're better off buying Google stock.

If we throw out some conservative numbers, and assume costs will rise super modestly, you have to believe OpenAI's earning will grow 50-100x for the investment to make sense. They'd have to maintain their current growth rate for 5+ years, but I wouldn't be surprised if their revenue growth is already slowing

Re: OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but still a free product. Unless you say that in the future the product won't have a free offering anymore, it's a free product.

That’s literally not how people in the business of creating product strategies classify things.

Yes, it is? Usually, products with free offering + subscriptions get classified as "freemium".
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