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Priced out of home ownership

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Re: Priced out of home ownership

#441
post #274

People intuitively jump to the conclusion that the problem is caused by a lack of building. While more building would help, a lack of it isn't the main cause of this problem. Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In my view this is symptomatic of a more fundamental issue - global asset price infla…

Yes, at one time it was estimated that roughly 1/3 of Vancouver’s condo supply was vacant. So the city implemented an empty homes tax [0] and promptly raised $115,000,000 in tax revenue [1].

However, the tax is still far too low and it contains various loopholes that allows developers to hold condos empty for years until deep-pocketed buyers show up [2].

Vancouver isn’t unique. Housing is being traded like poker chips everywhere, often but not always by ultra-wealthy foreign nationals with zero regard for the local consequences.

[0] https://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/empty-homes-t...

[1] https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-empty-homes-tax-st...

[2] https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/dan-fumano-some-new...

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Underutilized would imply that it's literally useless dead space. I have more rooms in my house than people, they have purposes.

UK census differentiates between rooms and bedrooms, so indeed an unused bedroom is likely a dead space.

My home is listed as having more bedrooms than people.

They are not dead spaces, and they wouldn't somehow become more useful if I knocked a wall or two through to reduce the room count or reclassified them.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#443
U.K. view here... and I'd guess this applies the the majority of the world too.

I was born in, grew up in and currently live in a location that the HN community never even thinks about. Most people in here have no idea of how the regular 99% live and then base their whole world view on expensive capital cities and hold the strangest views of housing.

I bought my current house in the 2010s, my mortgage is still half the price of renting and I could manage to pay for everything by myself even if I were on a minimum wage. The problem isn't anything to do with housing it's to do with your own warped view on the world.

I don't say this to be contrarian or to necessarily make a point. I want you to look up the minimum wage of your country and think about how literally everyone else happily lives without thinking twice about these things. You all live a massively privileged life yet these things concern you more than they should.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#444
What if the common trend of 'house prices rising totally out of whack' amongst various locales (Canada, USA, Europe, Australia, China) is not.. actually, a common trend? No single explanation suffices; it's just coincidence.

Low interest rates raise house prices. This has to be a 'duh' thing, really, but, governments don't really appear to 'get it', or, play dumb for political reasons. If, after adjusting for inflation and the like, the exact same house costs €500,000 in 1980 but costs €1,000,000 in 2024, BUT, interest rates in 1980 are double what they are in 2024, your mortgage cost to buy that house is __pretty much identical__.

It's oversimplified to say that this means 'real house price has not changed'. It still takes more money to actually buy that house. But, of the money you pay every month for your house, more of it is a weird, not very liquid investment portfolio, and less of it a weird form of rent. It's got all sorts of problems: Not everybody qualifies for a mortgage in the first place, for starters. But _in the end the amount of money you have to burn just to live in a house is identical in this hypothetical scenario_.

One lesson you could learn from it is that everybody is whining and houses are just as affordable as they've always been, but that's not my point, and isn't really true. The point is more: With low interest rates, house prices skyrocket.

This explains _some_ high house prices, but certainly not all.

For example, China's is an utterly different explanation. Due to the way their government is set up, the usual benefits of a free market, namely that the population 'intelligence of the masses' their way to efficient allocation of resources isn't a thing china 'does', in essence. Government decides what happens. And so far, they've decided to build more houses than there will ever be chinese people to live in them. Ever. This is a bit of a problem today and will be far more of a problem tomorrow. But that's it. That's the simple, sufficient, and therefore only required explanation. It has NOTHING to do with how hard to it is to build in China (it is not), nor with population growth (it doesn't, or rather, a sheer and severe drop in house prices looming, that'll be explained by China's population glut). It's just that: They built way too many, and their market system cannot respond in kind to stop that runaway process.

In europe, yes, in large part runaway NIMBYism and being at the forefront of ecological change, putting limits on how much nitrogen/co2 can be 'used up', and building does take quite a bit of that - has put the breaks on building. Especially combined with extremely low unemployment which hurts the building sector. "Too few houses being built" is a factor.

But not the only one. And I think, not even the largest one.

Yet another explanation is lack of efficiency: Fewer people partner up, so, more people live alone. They tend to use space inefficiently: They all want their own kitchen, their own shower, their own living room, their own bed room, their own hallway, and so on. A really cheap and ludicrously efficient solution to _that_ is dorm-style living together. Instead of having a small crappy single-tenant kitchen, why not have a giant luxurious very well stocked kitchen you share with 9 other solo tenants? Yes, there are all sorts of downsides to this (which lout has made a mess of the kitchen?!? - and nobody wants to deal with a cleaning schedule), but in the end it is vastly more efficient, and better for social cohesion.

Society in e.g. europe and the US has not, yet, adapted to it. I hope it will. It'll solve the unaffordability of housing crisis all on its own if society wants to invest in it.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#445
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to recommend you that, but i have experience with homelessness. You have two temporary solutions: - join a group of squatters (hopefully you already know someone) until you get your bearings. The less ideological ones often squat old industrial properties, or long-abandoned houses (its rough in winter, but in Portugal you should be fine). You might meet some Urbex guys, they're nice and always fine with fin…

I recently kayaked a stretch of the Tennessee River, between state parks, and within an hour of paddling I passed both a homeless riverside "tent city" [technically "public camping" on TWRA/state land] and then the most-expensive house for sale in our entire metro area (just around the same peninsula). These inholdings, both impoverished and not, were each having their respective parties (cheap beer in common) along…

It's one of the interesting paradoxes of human life, I think - that the poorer have more incentive to have fun.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#446
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is a problem of underutilisation in my view. Too many properties are being used as investments and not as a primary residence. I've believed for a long time that heavily taxing income from second+ properties, similar to capital gains, would help reduce rent-seeker hoarding, to help free up and reduce the cost of properties for primary-residence owners.

Thing is, rental buyers really only make out well because they can rent places for more than their purchase/mortgage equivalent. If supply were large enough, I'd think rental rates below the average monthly mortgage payment would be more widespread and tend to make rental property ownership less appealing.

The problem is that there’s enough demand out there—as capital seeking to be invested—to keep supply constrained.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#447
Yes, and I think there is some truth to the statement that the older generations are stealing from the younger generations, whatever the underlying financial/technical explanation may be.

The game is rigged. But that should be no surprise. People who enter a game of Monopoly after a few rounds have been played know that they will be swimming against a strong current. Our financial systems are unfair and broken.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#448
post #180

Stop subsidizing demand at the national level. Stop restricting supply at the local level.

Inequality is another issue. Even with enough homes, if they are all owned by minority of the population who extract rents from the rest the situation remains pretty dire.

Is inequality bad in and of itself? If there's a healthy market of buyers and sellers, but also a lot of inequality, is that a problem?

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#449
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is a problem of underutilisation in my view. Too many properties are being used as investments and not as a primary residence. I've believed for a long time that heavily taxing income from second+ properties, similar to capital gains, would help reduce rent-seeker hoarding, to help free up and reduce the cost of properties for primary-residence owners.

Taxes on rental income are already more than capital gains tax rates.

Then they need to be at least doubled, and funneled into individual owner-occupied housing subsidies.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#450
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to recommend you that, but i have experience with homelessness. You have two temporary solutions: - join a group of squatters (hopefully you already know someone) until you get your bearings. The less ideological ones often squat old industrial properties, or long-abandoned houses (its rough in winter, but in Portugal you should be fine). You might meet some Urbex guys, they're nice and always fine with fin…

I recently kayaked a stretch of the Tennessee River, between state parks, and within an hour of paddling I passed both a homeless riverside "tent city" [technically "public camping" on TWRA/state land] and then the most-expensive house for sale in our entire metro area (just around the same peninsula). These inholdings, both impoverished and not, were each having their respective parties (cheap beer in common) along…

I've lived on and off a semi-rural "squatter" community by ideological choice for around a year [0] (that experience helped _a lot_ later when i was homeless by lack of resources, while i finished my engineering degree), i've probably never had as much fun as i did at the time. Learned juggling, guitar and basic human interactions i had trouble with at the time. We shared alcohol, games and stories with everyone who went to say hello, even cops at the time (it was after César but before 2016)

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZAD_de_Notre-Dame-des-Landes

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