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Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

construction-physics.com

441–450 of 799 posts

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we had no problem building houses for people in the 50s and 60s. Why all the sudden we can't do it in the last 20 years? There's plenty of land out there. Even in the CA, the most densley populated state, there are more acres in CA than people and yet somehow there's a huge land shortage and ridiculous amounts of regulation. Even 100 miles away from the city, you'll see houses squeezed together like some kind of conc…

I’m struggling to imagine how less densely packed housing could be better for the environment

the key is to balance the number of jobs in an area with the amount of housing and to have mixed use land policy so housing and commercial and industrial can be much closer.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In properly designed large cities the metro beats the car by a huge time margin unless they made cars so expensive by policy that nobody has a car and there is no traffic at that city as a result. What’s a properly designed city? Even in Tokyo a car usually beats the train unless it’s an inter-regional trip. Im a huge Japan nerd and love their train system. But I just got back from carting three kids around Tokyo a…

I would rather sit in a train for 69 minutes than sit in a car for 45 minutes. In a car if my attention slips for a second I can kill myself and others. In a train if I fall asleep I may have to take another train.

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Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#443
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I can walk less than a mile to a theatre and pay $10 to watch a movie on a giant screen, I won't want to pay $10k to create a home theatre. If I can get food from around the world by walking 10 minutes to 20+ restaurants, I won't want to pay $20k to have an 800 sq.ft. kitchen. If I can entertain my guests at a community center or beer garden, I won't need to have a $15k patio and outdoor bar area. People pay absur…

Density spoils many of these examples, being in close proximity to a random collection of people has downsides. Why would I go to a theatre with people who cough and talk, when I can spend a couple of months wage to have a better experience? Why would I go to a crowded expensive bar when I could have the space to host at home? People pay for the better experience, there are very few places where the apartment experie…

I'm not saying that no one would build their own home theatre or restaurant sized kitchen. But a lot of people honestly wouldn't bother if they had other options in their community. It moves the cost/benefit curve over by a standard deviation or two.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#444
post #78

Every single major population center that has distorted (high) housing costs relative to income, also has very strong protections for the existing home owners (NIMBY). "There are no coincidences..." The solution is terrifyingly simple: don't allow existing residents to block new housing developments. If they don't like it, they can move. This will probably never happen in the U.S., because the government no longer fu…

A major issue with housing is that it is a primary driver of wealth for many Americans. Obviously, this comes at the expense of our fellow Americans who do not own a home. I was able to buy shortly out of college (1% down loan) so rising home prices don’t impact me as much since my home has also gone up in value. I was able to sell the first house and roll that equity into the next house. As long as it’s the main sto…

This is a common refrain from the YIMBY crowd, but I'm skeptical that the driving force of NIMBYism is wealth.

My own experience is that I couldn't care less about my property value: I view my mortgage as mostly a locked-in monthly payment, a guard against rent increases and against being forced to move if the landlord decides to do something different.

However, I would actively campaign against a large multi-family housing development being built within a few blocks of me. I don't want the added traffic it would bring, I don't want the added noise, and I don't want the more frequent turnover. I enjoy being able to recognize all of my neighbors, not just because it's nice but because it makes me feel safer.

If you actually went out and interviewed NIMBYs instead of just reading the stereotypes on the internet, I suspect that the motivations I describe above are much more common than wealth. It's not as exciting or provocative as "the upper-middle class just wants to get richer", but it's the reality that many of us live in.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#445

I hope large scale timber construction doesn’t occur exclusively because of the impact on our forests. Between the pine beetles, fires, the many many stumps from the last round of serious logging years… our national forests and surrounding un-designated forests could use a break from a possible sharp uptick in demand. If you support ideas like this which help largely sub/urban areas by using out of sight out of mind…

I wonder what the impact of the production of concrete and steel has on the environments where it takes place. I like the part of the article where they point out that mass timber would be better for carbon sequestration. I also think that buildings should mostly be built with a death period in mind because everything in this world requires maintenance and can be upgraded lol. So why not use a building material that…

Sustainable logging at its current levels makes the logged-out areas in the West look like it does now (stumps, new growth forests which aren’t 1:1 replacements, etc).

To get back to “how it’s supposed to be” as sustainable logging promises, we’re talking 100 yr+ timeframes to even make solid progress, not a full easy replacement. So, the environment is still degraded under that approach.

I’ve lived rural and urban coastal, and your view highlights a perspective I started to notice only when I lived rural West, and it’s frustrating:

To support pro-environmental needs of the densely populated and often coastal urban centers, the last remaining near/wild environments bear the cost and get carved out under the banner of pragmatic sustainable use - logged out, REM mines, wind farms on mountains, etc.

For instance, if every rural wind farm was met with a wind farm in SF Bay or Cape Cod or… I’d be ok with it, but the reality is it’s not done this way, and in fact heavily resisted due to vacation home views and so on. Bitteroots and Bighorn ranges have massive REM deposits discovered. This was spun as a positive env news story vs a massive mining threat to some of the best un-impacted/well managed areas of the Rockies. On and on.

So let’s raid our mountains and last wild places to support environmentally unsustainable lifestyles in the dense areas, who get to avoid none of the tradeoffs I describe that the actually wild areas now face. Doesn’t sit well with me. What’s the point of environmentalism if we destroy the last best parts of the environment.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#446

Every single major population center that has distorted (high) housing costs relative to income, also has very strong protections for the existing home owners (NIMBY). "There are no coincidences..." The solution is terrifyingly simple: don't allow existing residents to block new housing developments. If they don't like it, they can move. This will probably never happen in the U.S., because the government no longer fu…

> If they don't like it, they can move. Why doesn't the same logic apply to people who don't like the high prices of housing in some areas? There's plenty of affordable housing in the country, but it doesn't all exist in the places people want to live.

> Why doesn't the same logic apply to people who don't like the high prices of housing in some areas?

Because the cities in question green lit the office buildings that have the job I need. If a city chooses to grow its economy, it has an obligation to allow enough housing for those new people.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to live next to a huge building, so I selected a town where that was not allowed. So don't tell me changing this is a win win for me. It isn't.

I'm speaking only to overall property values, because that's the argument I was replying to. I don't care about your preferences.

Nor do you apparently care about the fact that "NIMBYs worry that the mere existence of nearby multifamily will decrease their home value" is a false stereotype.

A NIMBY straight-up told you that their motivations are about lifestyle and not money and your response is "I don't care about your preferences".

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#448
post #39

How about converting offices to apartments? Thanks to home office there should be many otherwise useless offices.

This can work but many buildings are unsuitable. Office buildings tend to have too much interior space where it’s difficult to give all residential units access to natural light. There are also differences in building code for safety issues.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#449
post #177

It takes significantly less materials to build a multi-dwelling apartment/condo/townhouse structure than a single family home. In addition, the required square footage per person drops by huge amounts when people can walk to nearby community centers, restaurants, kitchens, theaters, and bars. We are building massive 3-4k sq. ft. homes for families of four because all of their food, entertainment, and social needs are…

The housing crisis remains about human greed. That's all it is.

Don't forget pig headed stupidity!

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#450
I think this article is a great example of how technical people have become so intoxicated by the relatively few instances in which an advance in technology has genuinely solved an entrenched social or power problem by making a new thing possible or reducing costs that they basically only argue in those terms

The fact is, the housing crisis is and always was a policy failure and a "distributional outcomes" issue, and and no amount of improving housing construction's speed, costs, or legality will fix it if we don't both change policy and reduce inequality

There are tons of building that are or could be residential housing that are owned by massive investment firms as a speculative asset. The FTC's recently published brief mentioned that keeping units empty rather than lowering prices is common practice among landlords. Even among individuals, an incredible amount of older, wealthy people own multiple homes and view most of them as a source of passive income. When I talk to people in that category, if they are doing well, they are often thinking about buying more homes to generate more income directly from renters or as a speculative investment (IE to hold and sell later)

As it stands, people are not homeless because there is nowhere they could live. Not even close. Increasing housing supply without making any significant dent in the financial and regulatory situation surrounding housing will more likely just put more real estate in the hands of the entrenched winners, who have already demonstrated the willingness and ability to hoard housing

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