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Things are about to get worse for generative AI

garymarcus.substack.com

441–450 of 769 posts

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will once people start talking about an AI gap with China.

I mean, people already talk about this. What it seems to me from the milieu of everything I've read and heard (that is: I can't cite examples, this is an aggregate developed from hundreds of articles and podcasts etc.) is that there is already an "AI" arms race underway, but that it has more to do with specialized ML systems than with consumer LLMs. But I'm not really in the loop, and maybe OpenAI really is more impo…

It mostly doesn't matter if the military wants specialist systems, in the long run generalist systems tend to win in power and adaptability.

Some of this may be a misunderstanding of what modern militaries do, if they are shooting guns there's already been some level of failure. Massive amounts of war gaming, sentiment analysis, and propagandizing occur, see the RAND Corporation for more details on the military development of algorithms and artificial intelligence.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I really don’t see everyone else giving up here because “funny magic parrot box” can write some mid-tier high school essays. LLM people are really starting to veer into crypto-bro territory with the evangelising about how they’re the best thing since sliced bread and transistors.

> “funny magic parrot box” can write some mid-tier high school essays That's your take on LLMs? Ask it how it is possible for a photon to travel across the universe, arriving at the same time it departed, resulting in the journey taking zero time (in its reference frame). Ask what implications are if certain viral amino sequences result in messenger RNA translocating to the host cell nucleus, potentially with the ent…

The "crypto-bro" behavior I see is a whole bunch of people burning a ton of calories wildly casting about for industrial applications of what amounts to nothing more than a neat (albeit eye-wateringly expensive) toy. These LLMs seem like a solution in search of a problem in just the same way that blockchains are. Please prove me wrong, I'd really love to be wrong about this!

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#443
Per United States law, imagery/art/music/text/photography generated by non-human means (such as machinery, animals, or generative AI) cannot hold copyright. https://copyright.gov/comp3/chap300/ch300-copyrightable-auth... Section 306 on page 7.

I'm not sure how it'll hold up in law to claim copyright violations against something that wasn't created by a person. It'll really depend on the lawyers and judge's interpretation of written law. But I'm curious to see what comes of this.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shows that as a society we might be ok with humans doing it. Whether or not we are with machines doing it is a different question.

Fortunately, a machine isn't an autonomous mind that does anything on its own. Instead, it is a person who uses the machine, just like fan artists can use a computer to make fan art.

True, but still different in the same way as using machines for certain purposes is not the same as a human doing the same without a machine. Just because you can walk from A to B does not mean driving from A to B requires no driving license, for example (and the car needs to fullfil a lot regulations).

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#446

Per United States law, imagery/art/music/text/photography generated by non-human means (such as machinery, animals, or generative AI) cannot hold copyright. https://copyright.gov/comp3/chap300/ch300-copyrightable-auth... Section 306 on page 7. I'm not sure how it'll hold up in law to claim copyright violations against something that wasn't created by a person. It'll really depend on the lawyers and judge's interpreta…

hmm then it meants generative music, as in say brian eno's experiments aren't copyrighted?

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure if you tried to sell a CG Mario movie Nintendo would sue you into oblivion, and "the neural network did it" would not be considered a good defense by anybody, including the judge and jury.

Sure, but making it possible for the neural network to make the movie (eventually in seconds) is somehow ok? So people can make their own private CG Mario films, as long as they don't try to sell them? Here's my argument - even if the NN only makes the films for private consumption, eventually they'll be so widespread and fast at making them that won't matter, since everyone will be able to watch Mario movies of thei…

I don't really care if it sits well with them. do you? In that future, why do we need them? They are already parasites feeding off our collective societal stories. Or did you think Disney came up with all those characters? Maybe the original creator of Snow White should sue.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#448

The world is a big place. China can't produce LLMs because of inconvenient truths. The US can't produce LLMs because of copyright. Decentralized open source LLMs might exist that could work, but they won't have the giant GPU clusters. A rich country with lax rule of law wins? Maybe that's why Sam went to the Saudis?

Well. Japan can: https://petapixel.com/2023/06/05/japan-declares-ai-training-...

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#449
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument might hold more water when generative models are more than fancy compression algorithms/text completion engines. A more practical way of looking at this is: who is making money off of these models? How did they get their training data? I’m not a fan of copyright in general, but we have serious outstanding issues with companies and organizations stealing or plastering work without compensating the origin…

> I’m not a fan of copyright in general, but we have serious outstanding issues with companies and organizations stealing or plastering work without compensating the original creators of said works. Would you mind unpacking this one a bit? It sounds like you denigrate copyright (some "general" grievance) but then immediately execute an about-face and begin to extoll its virtues. Is copyright not the thing that allows…

I think they are expressing a view that we ought to offer less protection / more scrutiny to larger commercial entities, which concentrate disproportionate amounts of wealth and power, compared to smaller entities. I tend to agree.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#450
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im happy to pay the artist directly - which is why I use services like bandcamp or buy artworks directly from artists I know personally. I care little about paying „rightsholders“ and their ilk - so I have zero empathy if they complain about imagined losses. Don’t jump to conclusions about people who have never even talked to

Artists are "rightsholders" and their ilk. You didn't even separate the two in your former comment, so you clearly weren't talking about corporate owners of IP like Sony and Disney, exclusively. Maybe you believe no artist who works for a corporation has any motivation but money, as opposed to purely "indie" artists, I don't know where the line in your head is drawn, but you do seem willing to throw most artists unde…

With rightsholders I mean exactly those big corporations who do nothing else but buy up copyrights to successful art.

I for example have never benefited from copyright, neither from GEMA (the German artist association for musicians) - 99% of payouts go to the rich and successful mainstream artists and „indie“ artists get nothing but are forced by law to pay in if they want to perform in public.

So yea I have little sympathy for artists who only work for corporations or are rich enough to afford lawyers to enforce their copyright.

The way I see it there exist 3 ways to make a living as an artist now: - be rich trustfundkid and don’t care about money - be „purist“ and just live from selling your art and be on the brink of starvation constantly - get a „money“job and produce art in your spare time

Apparently there exists a huge population of artists who can make a living from working for corporations - but I have yet to meet one in real life. They are always brought up in these HN discussions but in my experience they don’t exist.

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