Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's an interesting case and use of the word efficient. Developer time reduced by 5X CPU time increased by 500x When CPU cycles are cheap it's a logical tradeoff but it still grates against my sensibilities.
5X is a gigantic underestimate of how much developer time has improved. How long would it take a good assembly programmer to implement a CRUD web server connected to a database? Way more than 5x longer what a mediocre Python programmer would need.
Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
441–450 of 677 posts
Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#442Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#443I was thinking last night about how my job as a pretty average software engineer is probably going to be taken by GPT* in less than 5 years, and how skilled blue collar jobs like electricians and plumbers and carpenters are probably much safer, since robotics is way behind AI.
Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#444Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wouldn’t this actually create more demand for programmers? More businesses can exist that have a need for software. To date every advance in programming efficiency has resulted in more tech, not less. Additionally there’s the math behind it. If Company A fires 50% of their staff because AI lets the remaining 50% work at twice the productivity then how will they compete with Company B that keeps their staff and now ge…
Yep, I personally see the cost of doing a start-up going way down for individual developers or even junior developers.
You know how hard it is to start debugging a project you haven't been onboarded to? Now imagine that every time something has a hiccup.
Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#445So, for a bit of fun, I signed up to GPT-4 thingy plus and I picked a fairly common web application and built it from scratch, only by talking to GPT-4 and copy pasting the code bits. I'm actually taken back by how well it's doing; including providing me some refreshers on stuff I forgot how it should work. I can see it failing at solving complex problems, but like the blog post mentions, most programming isn't new o…
The difference with the examples you gave (floppy disks, etc.) is the speed at which it happened.
There was Jan'23, and there was March'23.
Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#446Earlier quoted context omitted.
You know the shoeshine boy indicator story [1]? That's the vibe I've been getting with ChatGPT lately, I have multiple old high school teachers with 0 computational background who hardly ever spoke about ML before posting regularly on LinkedIn about ChatGPT the last couple months. The part that gets me is they aren't just aimlessly making posts, they're getting involved with webinars targeted at educators in their re…
Teaching is going to be a career affected early by chatgpt because students will use it (are using it) to do assignments. A good teacher doesn't need to know much about machine learning to think about how that will affect his job, he just needs to know his students and have an idea how to work with them given the new tools they have.
In any event, he isn't concerned at all about students using it for assignments, it's the degree to which he seems to think it can be integrated in his current curriculum that alarms me. I think he is misunderstanding the capabilities and therefore pitching something that doesn't actually make sense.
The other teacher I didn't follow as closely, I just got a kick out of seeing she was now advertising some sort of webinar about ChatGPT filled with buzzwords too.
Also if a teacher is really serious about wanting to plan around what GPT can and can't do to the point they want to be a teaching authority on it, they should be consulting with people in the relevant domain. When I want to use a new tool in the lab I talk with colleagues that have a great deal of relevant experience before I start working it into experiments. I can't imagine starting to give advice to others on the matter when I don't actually know the current nuances.
Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#447In before all the comments about how “most code is trivial” or “most programming is stuff that already exists” or “you’re missing the point look how it’s getting better”. I really am in awe of how much work people seem willing to do to justify this as revolutionary and programmers as infantile, and also why they do that. It’s fascinating. Thinking back to my first job out of college as a solid entry level programmer.…
Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#448Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#449Earlier quoted context omitted.
Personally I think it's 99% hype. The current iteration and architecture of these systems means they will never be at the level where they can actually replace a programmer. The best they will ever get is barfing up snippets for a programmer (who still needs the industry-specific knowledge to VERIFY the snippets). Additionally, "the rate of increase in capabilities" is very much a false flag. Past performance (especi…
But obviously increasing avg and sr programmer productivity by many x implies many fewer jobs for programmers. That’s the point we’re interested in.
> In economics, the lump of labour fallacy is the misconception that there is a fixed amount of work—a lump of labour—to be done within an economy which can be distributed to create more or fewer jobs.
Re: Testing GPT 4's code-writing capabilities with some real world problems
#450I guess my genuine question is to the people who are saying this is a big deal and it will take our jobs. I am a bit lucky to where at the moment I am working in a "novel" field. Lets say though for the sake of argument that AI does come for SWE jobs. To be honest? I don't know what to do in that case, I have no backup plan, not enough to retire. The country I've lived in for 9 years is still through a work visa (hop…
Check out my comments higher up in the thread (eg https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35197613 ), I really do believe that GPT4+ will be primarily useful as augmenters for capable and dedicated engineers, rather than replacements. It's like a very eager and brilliant junior dev that can solve many problems that you throw at it, but still needs hand-holding, error-checking, and someone who knows how to piece the actu…