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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#441

Post by ajross »

nonrandomstring wrote: post #436
ajross wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but you conflated the two to make your argument. Saying "peak tech is over" to mean "the VC-driven startup grider is out of gas" is fine! Saying that it's over because technology isn't making people's lives better is wrong, because that's what "technology" does , and it doesn't appear to be slowing down to me.

> Saying that it's over because technology isn't making people's lives better is wrong, because that's what "technology" does, and it doesn't appear to be slowing down to me. I see two errors here. Defining technology to be "that thing which makes people's lives better" feels weak, even disingenuous, because trivially nuclear missiles and weaponised smallpox are technologies that fail your test. Therefore, there exis…

> scandals over the erosion of democratic values, decline in education, attention disorders, social fragmentation, childhood depression, pollution and e-waste, conflict minerals, energy consumption, loss of privacy, dignity and rights... Must I go on?

Please don't. OK, I get it now. Your point above wasn't about "peak tech" at all[1], it was about this part, which you didn't mention. I think you're wrong, FWIW, but am not going to engage.

[1] In either the sense of "peak tech startup investment activity" or "technological progress as commonly undeerstood".

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#442

Post by nscalf »

patentatt wrote: post #437
nscalf wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Taiwan is taken off the board for semiconductors, or if all semiconductors have to go through China, that means the entire US military (and all western militaries) are dependent on a geopolitical rival. To allow that would be nothing short of giving away the game.

This is what I don't get. I thought military and aerospace used decades old cpu designs on decades old fab technology for the radiation hardness? Not saying they couldn't benefit from an upgrade, but it's not like Lockheed is putting Nvidia GPUs in fighter jets, right? It doesn't seem like a deal breaker to use a 14nm node compared to a '5nm' node (or whatever is the latest TSMC process). Seems like a weird line to d…

I think that's true for some key components of the military, but for example, anything involving AI systems necessitate cutting edge chips. You can probably look to the effect chip shortages had on car manufacturers to see how much of this likely works. Cars manufacturing wasn't entirely halted in most cases, instead they had downgraded functionality. Less automatic windows, more window cranks. The totality of every military system isn't based off high end chips, but some of it certainly is.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#443

Post by kragen »

whimsicalism wrote: post #431
digianarchist wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The KMT have an awful track record as being horrifically authoritarian. OP isn’t wrong though contemporary Taiwan is a model democracy in a region where there are few.

I think pinning Taiwan as "last bastion" of some democracy that existed before is incorrect as any honest history of the KMT can see.

Even dishonest histories of the KMT are rarely so dishonest as to claim the ROC was democratically governed before 01949, however much they try to whitewash the mass killings. Disinformation has to be plausible to be effective.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#444

Post by hunglee2 »

kragen wrote: post #360
hunglee2 wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for sure, but most opinion from the west inflates TSMC as primary motivator, its a complicating factor yes, but the PRC has been on about taking Taiwan for the past 70 years, before semi-conductors were even invented. look at the top voted comment in this thread - the narrative is some sort of escalation from Xi Jinping when unification with Taiwan is boilerplate rhetoric which every leader since Deng says at Party C…

Agreed! I think there was maybe some real escalation around the time of Pelosi's visit (where Morris Chang was in attendance in her photo-op with Tsai), though, and it's hard not to see the moves in HK as threatening.

Chang is the leader Taiwan really needs, unfortunately he is unable to moderate Tsai. TSMC will eventually be a loser in the story that is currently being written

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#445

Post by cryptonector »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #75
Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

China will invade Taiwan when the cost to do so is low enough and/or they are desperate. In other words, the probability of success is considerably higher today than it will be in the future (even if the probability of success today isn't great). Russia is a declining state relative to Ukraine & Europe, so Putin's odds of success in 2022 were considerably higher than they would be 10 years later. So if invading Ukrai…

Check for fifth columns. They'll probably prefer to have those than to try w/o them.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#446

Post by lovich »

whimsicalism wrote: post #390
lovich wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, murdering and cremating isn’t the only bit of genocide. They’ve also bern taking Ukrainian children and adopting them out to Russian families, and filtrating out Ukrainian adults across Russia. At the beginning and through most of the invasion they Russian stance was that Ukrainians are a fake people and don’t actually exist. If I was getting invaded by a group saying my people weren’t real I probably wouldn’…

Clearly denying Ukrainian identity & culture is part of the Russian project here and is linked to forced relocation/adoption. My question was merely on the claim that Russia desired to murder & cremate some >1% of the Ukrainian population.

It looks like the thread got stuck on a technicality around the cremations. I think I still agree with the initial, wider hypothesis the poster had with

> It was never a question of "no war and survive" VS "die in war" - but "no war, die anyways" VS "war, possibly survive"

Especially if, like most groups of humans as were tribal, the dissolution of your tribe is almost equivalent to not surviving

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#447

Post by nonrandomstring »

jonas21 wrote: post #404
agumonkey wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of human existence tech is overwhelmingly above the average person need. It's not providing anything beside more addictive paths. You don't need more resolution, more bandwidth, more anything.. you probably need less, or more space to reflect and live outside the networked digital realm. ps: to add a bit more, from the few chats I have, people are either saying "well I need that to check my bank account or p…

> In terms of human existence tech is overwhelmingly above the average person need. People have been saying this about technology for as long as technology has existed.

> People have been saying this about technology for as long as technology has existed.

Have they? It kinda sounds "truthy" but if ever there was an unfalsifiable claim that's gotta be a contender.

I'm no general historian but think for the most-part people have enthused over and coveted technologies for thousands of years.

With the exception of occasional religious objections to "magic" it was the Luddites during the industrial revolution whose first stirrings of discontent emerged.

Even the early critical science-fiction of H.G Wells and Mary Shelley was tepid and poetic.

Much later, in the late 1960s, comes the first modern tech-critique, and much of that is driven by affairs relating to environmental and war problems, Vietnam, oil crisis, DDT... way before the Internet.

The idea that we have a surfeit of technological capability, or perhaps just too much of the wrong type, seems very contemporary to me.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#448

Post by gadflyinyoureye »

whimsicalism wrote: post #380
gadflyinyoureye wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Directly? No. By suicide and future complications due to having their life upended/destroyed yeah. The CCP should have purchase novavax for the shot (they still should given China’s low jab rate) and allowed the majority of people to live their lives. Covid for the majority posses little risk.

4 million people died due to suicide due to lockdowns in China?

There will be a lot of longer term mental damage. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3182775/huma...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#449

Post by lovich »

whimsicalism wrote: post #396
lovich wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda hard to take this seriously when you’re using anti vaxxer slang(jab). If you didn’t mean it that way just giving you a heads up that it immediately clocked as an anti vaxx dog whistle.

I disagree that that is anti-vaxxer slang, I think it is just a Britishism. Indeed I believe their govt calls it a jab.

May be cultural differences then. In the US and Canada the anti vaxxers will pejoratively refer to the vaccine as “the jab” or taking it as “getting the jab”

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#450

Post by free652 »

whimsicalism wrote: post #382
dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the right to life no longer a human right? Ah yes, China, comes to the top of the list when I think of protectors of human life. One-child policies, welding people into their apartment buildings, corralling them into COSTCOs [1] like they're farm animals being loaded into a semi-truck. Such benevolence. > Or have a lot of us so internalized anti-China propaganda that we're no longer able to think logically? Nah,…

The fact remains that if US policies were implemented in China, it would mean the tacit acceptance of killing 4-5 million people.

a) we don't know exactly what would happen if China implemented US policies. So that's not a fact, thats a hypothesis.

b) China lies all the time. That's a fact. May be 5 million died from covid there. who knows.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation_by_Chi...

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