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Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

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Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#441

Post by cinntaile »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #440
cinntaile wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Obviously people were calling coal mines in western countries stranded and dead assets, if you weren't paying attention and don't think that is the case, then it's actually on you to provide evidence for this extraordinary claim. That's what I claimed, I'm happy you agree. This claim did not extend towards the rest of the world (so not like you claimed), the consensus among experts was that they would be increasing…

> That's what I claimed, I'm happy you agree. This claim did not extend towards the rest of the world (so not like you claimed), It did ,because western countries export coal to the rest of the world. Look if you can't admit you were parroting that coal was killed by renewables without any understanding of commodity boom/bust cycles or energy demand trajectory the world that's quite understandable it's difficult to f…

> It did ,because western countries export coal to the rest of the world.

As I said, coal production and consumption in the west has gone down. Coal plants and mines have closed. The trend is downwards. Do you really refuse to accept this when it's what the data says? This is quite worrying I must say, is there some ideological bias at play here?

> Look if you can't admit you were parroting that coal was killed by renewables without any understanding of commodity boom/bust cycles or energy demand trajectory the world that's quite understandable it's difficult to face reality, but you don't have to keep at it.

Coal is being killed by renewables, nuclear, hydro, gas, ... in the west. Whatever is cheaper tends to win out in the end. All you have to do is look at the data, I even linked it for you. Although it's experiencing a hiccup right now due to the gas crisis. It will obviously take a bit longer for the rest of the world to catch up, even without the current crisis.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#442

Post by throwawaylinux »

cinntaile wrote: post #441
throwawaylinux wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's what I claimed, I'm happy you agree. This claim did not extend towards the rest of the world (so not like you claimed), It did ,because western countries export coal to the rest of the world. Look if you can't admit you were parroting that coal was killed by renewables without any understanding of commodity boom/bust cycles or energy demand trajectory the world that's quite understandable it's difficult to f…

> It did ,because western countries export coal to the rest of the world. As I said, coal production and consumption in the west has gone down. Coal plants and mines have closed. The trend is downwards. Do you really refuse to accept this when it's what the data says? This is quite worrying I must say, is there some ideological bias at play here? > Look if you can't admit you were parroting that coal was killed by re…

Read what I wrote and respond to that or not at all. You can't goad me into "admitting" something I'm not arguing against, because I'm not in some religious anti renewable or pro nuclear or coal cult.

You were wrong if you were reciting the popular prayer "coal is dead, killed by renewables" a few years ago. Hopefully you come to understand that and reflect on what that means for the credibility of the kind of sources you get your information from, and what that means for your ideas about nuclear and other things too.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#443

Post by cinntaile »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #442
cinntaile wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It did ,because western countries export coal to the rest of the world. As I said, coal production and consumption in the west has gone down. Coal plants and mines have closed. The trend is downwards. Do you really refuse to accept this when it's what the data says? This is quite worrying I must say, is there some ideological bias at play here? > Look if you can't admit you were parroting that coal was killed by re…

Read what I wrote and respond to that or not at all. You can't goad me into "admitting" something I'm not arguing against, because I'm not in some religious anti renewable or pro nuclear or coal cult. You were wrong if you were reciting the popular prayer "coal is dead, killed by renewables" a few years ago. Hopefully you come to understand that and reflect on what that means for the credibility of the kind of source…

> Read what I wrote and respond to that or not at all. You can't goad me into "admitting" something I'm not arguing against, because I'm not in some religious anti renewable or pro nuclear or coal cult.

Did you not claim:

>"coal is dead, killed by renewables." was said by people around 10 years ago and that this referred to the entire world?

I'm assuming people aren't just random Twitter users but actual reputable people.

I have provided a reputable source from 2010 that said that total coal consumption would rise and that this increase is due to an increased usage in the developing world. This is true today, see [0] so the prediction was on point. All you have to do is show us that a reputable source has claimed that coal was dead and that this referred to the entire world. Somewhere around 2010. This would settle the debate.

> You were wrong if you were reciting the popular prayer "coal is dead, killed by renewables" a few years ago. Hopefully you come to understand that and reflect on what that means for the credibility of the kind of sources you get your information from, and what that means for your ideas about nuclear and other things too.

Don't you think it would be really weird if I was supposedly reciting something that I say wasn't claimed in the first place? The claim you mention refers to the west and no real energy expert worth his or her salt would have claimed that this would be the case for the entire world. It's simply not possible for the developing world to do that. It wasn't possible in 2010, when the costs for renewables were much higher than they are now, and it isn't possible now.

I think the International Energy Agency is quite a reputable source? They do research and advice policy makers all around the world.

Also I'm a bit confused... My ideas about nuclear and other things? I'm not following here, what do you mean? And what does it have to do with the topic at hand?

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#444

Post by throwawaylinux »

cinntaile wrote: post #443
throwawaylinux wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read what I wrote and respond to that or not at all. You can't goad me into "admitting" something I'm not arguing against, because I'm not in some religious anti renewable or pro nuclear or coal cult. You were wrong if you were reciting the popular prayer "coal is dead, killed by renewables" a few years ago. Hopefully you come to understand that and reflect on what that means for the credibility of the kind of source…

> Read what I wrote and respond to that or not at all. You can't goad me into "admitting" something I'm not arguing against, because I'm not in some religious anti renewable or pro nuclear or coal cult. Did you not claim: >"coal is dead, killed by renewables." was said by people around 10 years ago and that this referred to the entire world? I'm assuming people aren't just random Twitter users but actual reputable pe…

Look, gullible know-nothings actually believed and could not stop themselves from parroting endlessly that coal mines and infrastructure around the world were dead, killed by renewables. Renewables were cheaper, coal was dead -- that was the complete story in their minds.

They were just led astray by misinformation from special interests, and they were wrong.

The same people have also been claiming that nuclear is dead, killed by renewbales. Their credibility speaks for itself.

No need to reply with apologetics, or arguments about something I didn't say.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#445

Post by foverzar »

marvin wrote: post #435
foverzar wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russian propaganda says that Nord Stream 1 is closed due to repairs. It obviously is not. It is closed because Russia wages economic warfare against Europe. You won't find a peer-reviewed double-blind study saying this, signed by foreign minister Lavrov with an interview in the appendix where he states that this is in fact Russia's deliberate policy choice, but one can use some basic reasoning. I don't need peer-re…

Europe has offered to fix the alleged "problems" multiple times, bringing their own spare parts and rolling out the red carpet on the off chance that missing parts & personnel due to sanctions are in fact the culprit. But to no-one's big surprise, Russia has declined. So the conclusion is obvious. It would of course be interesting to do a 40 page research essay in the style of WaitButWhy every time Russia makes a sta…

Do you have a point? You are being real vague and non-specific.

What "problems" are you referring to specifically? It would be nice to read some source, cuz to my knowledge there are quite a lot of warranty nuances - it would be curious to see something substiantial on the matter, coming from official sources, that are not Russian, even if confirmed by Siemens engineers on-site.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#446

Post by foverzar »

KronisLV wrote: post #125
foverzar wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's well known that this is not true Well known? Is it? Could you please give some reference then? No one would be surprised to see a "work-to-rule" action, but how is it "russian propaganda" that Europe had sanctioned Russian energy industry and it "somehow" had consequences?

I don't really care much for the debate, or fully buy into either perspective on the issue, but here's what a quick search turned up, from the 31st of August: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/business/nord-stream-1-eu... > Russian state energy giant Gazprom cut all deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Wednesday in what it said was a planned shutdown until Saturday for maintenance work. > In recent month…

Well, these go more or less in line with my impression that European restrictions are the cause of most disruptions of normal operations, from maintenance to payment.

Add to that the NS2 pipeline, that could have been started, but never was. And Yamal-Europe pipeline that was shutdown by due to sanctions.

Diversification of supply is a good thing, sure, but how would it affect the competitiveness of European industry is a curious matter.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#447

Post by leaflets2 »

chiph wrote: post #251
mijoharas wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's fair. If almost 40% of french nuclear is offline right now[0][1] then I think it's reasonable to ask questions about reliability. Could you explain how the position is lazy? (Note: I'm in favour of nuclear power) [0] https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1567971418255532035 [1] Our forecast is for 59% utilisation or 315TWh based on EDF's guidance.

The French reactors were taken offline for scheduled maintenance and repairs. Those hours don't count against reliability metrics because the plants weren't expected to be operating. The argument is lazy because it's false equivalence. A power plant failing suddenly is not the same thing as a power plant being taken offline to fix a known issue. edit: EDF has announced that they will be restarting their nuclear plant…

> The French reactors were taken offline for scheduled maintenance and repairs.

Wow 40% offline, that's amazingly useless quality, never heard about sth like that.

Sibling comment says "unscheduled repairs because of corrosion damage".

> Those hours don't count against reliability metrics

Says who? If they need maintenance that often, they're unreliable sources.

That "doesn't count" idea sounds like excuses the owners/responsible could come up with, to get away with their incompetence (or what's going on).

It'd been nice if they had worked (apparently better than burning coal and causing climate change)

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#448

Post by leaflets2 »

brazzy wrote: post #427
chiph wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An unscheduled outage does have a spectrum to it - on the low/bad end there's a reactor scram. No one wants that. But there's also this case, where corrosion was found that needed to be repaired sometime "soon". Scheduling that work almost a year in the future does not count against their reliability score. It's important to note that the river/lake water does not get sent through the reactor. The distilled water use…

> Scheduling that work almost a year in the future does not count against their reliability score. Of fucking course it does! Otherwise your definition of that "score" is stupid and useless. Equipment is reliable if it is available when you need it. A technology that has half your reactor fleet down for many months, just as you most need them, is by no stretch of imagination reliable. Claiming otherwise is either del…

Yes, imaging shutting down 40% of the roads in France, and saying: "We have a reliable road network because we announced this a year in advance"

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#449

Post by kken »

origin_path wrote: post #430
welterde wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolute nonsense. You continue to ignore the simple facts that they still have a spare turbine(s) just sitting in storage on site as well as the one in Germany that could be delivered any time that Gazprom wants. Siemens Energy also stated that they could easily seal the oil leaks on site if Gazprom wants regardless of it's necessity, but has received no order from Gazprom to do so. I am not sure how much more evide…

Look, I'm not on Russia's side here, it is crazy to suddenly invade another country like that. But I hate illogical arguments and propaganda even more, and this topic is full of it. "It's very much in Russia's interest to shift blame away from themselves to sow dissent" The argument you're making here about Putin playing 4D chess is totally illogical. It only sounds right to you because of years of nonsense from cert…

>Russia's actual interest here is to trade gas for money

You are underestimating the complexity of this issue. There are long term delivery contracts that force Gazprom/Russia to deliver. All the things you are seeing are thinly veiled attempts to create a "force majeure" exception as a superficial narrative to shift blame and still cause damage.

Don't be naive.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#450

Post by fleetingmoments »

Someone wrote: post #27
bombcar wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if it is cost effective going forward to install two meters and panels on every house with one being “essential” and the other being “intermittent” so the power company has the option of blacking out the intermittent boxes only. I’d rather have all my computers, lights, etc shut down than my whole house.

Firstly, how would you keep consumers honest about what’s essential? Secondly, I think “essential” will depend on the duration of the blackout. For a blackout of a few hours, keeping WiFi running so that work from home can continue probably is more essential than heating a water boiler. If the blackout takes a few days, that may change.

A self-resetting breaker at the power box in the street rated for 10A (220V) or so?
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