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India’s second wave

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Re: India’s second wave

#441

Post by [deleted] »

sangnoir wrote: post #433
mikem170 wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You said "the survival of the species" was at stake. Are you telling me that you stand by that comment? Do you really think this coronavirus might have killed off our species? There is zero science supporting this. In fact, to the contrary, experts from the beginning expected this to peter out on its own [0]: > 2019-nCoV joins the four coronaviruses now circulating in people. “I can imagine a scenario where this beco…

> You said "the survival of the species" was at stake. That wasn't me saying that; I'm not gp. I was only objecting to your comment that implicitly assumed a linear effect, and therefore concludes that things wouldn't have been bad without shutdowns >> That works out to 1 out of 570 people hat have died of covid. I do not think the "survival of the species" was at stake, but our 2020 lifestyles were at stake. Things…

[deleted]

Re: India’s second wave

#442

Post by [deleted] »

fogihujy wrote: post #422
sangnoir wrote: post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That works out to 1 out of 570 people that have died of covid. Mostly older and less healthy folks. Your assumption is that what the USA went through, with the shutdowns is the worst-case scenario. I posit that it is not - things could have been far worse in terms of death, as well as second- and third-order effects on the economy, jobs and food security.

Worst case would be healthcare systems collapsing, and a majority of essential workers falling ill, dying, or simply refusing to go work. It would possibly cause severe supply chain disruptions, which in its turn could result in local food shortages, civil unrest and so on. If such a situation would be allowed to spiral out of control, it could very well result in a systemic collapse, especially on a local or regiona…

[deleted]

Re: India’s second wave

#443

Post by mikem170 »

sangnoir wrote: post #433
mikem170 wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You said "the survival of the species" was at stake. Are you telling me that you stand by that comment? Do you really think this coronavirus might have killed off our species? There is zero science supporting this. In fact, to the contrary, experts from the beginning expected this to peter out on its own [0]: > 2019-nCoV joins the four coronaviruses now circulating in people. “I can imagine a scenario where this beco…

> You said "the survival of the species" was at stake. That wasn't me saying that; I'm not gp. I was only objecting to your comment that implicitly assumed a linear effect, and therefore concludes that things wouldn't have been bad without shutdowns >> That works out to 1 out of 570 people hat have died of covid. I do not think the "survival of the species" was at stake, but our 2020 lifestyles were at stake. Things…

My apologies! I didn't mean to mix you up with the original comment I was replying to. I did specifically object to the characterization of the pandemic as a threat to the surivial of the species. I'm glad you agree!

Re: India’s second wave

#444

Post by sudosysgen »

nradov wrote: post #436
sudosysgen wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only around 2-8% of people in cities need to work to sustain everyone's livelihoods. As for those who live off of agriculture, you can ensure basic self sufficiency.

Do you even live in the real world? Because your numbers are just totally disconnected from reality. In my city way more that 8% of people work in essential fields like food production and distribution, emergency services, utilities, transportation infrastructure, vehicle repair, home repair, healthcare, military, etc.

Food distribution and emergency services typically get taken over in good part by the military.

Necessary food production is generally outside of cities.

All Healthcare except for what is immediately necessary similarly is not needed, same for vehicle repair and so on.

Keep in mind, this is only for a very short period of time. You don't have to deploy anywhere near the population needed for a sustainable organization.

For the US for example, there are 55 million "essential workers". 11 million of those are in agriculture or restauration (so either outside of a city or dispensable). 10 million are in finance or residential/commercial facilities services, most of which is preemptible for a few weeks. 4.5 million are in governmental services which can largely either be done remotely or preempted for a few weeks. Realistically you're looking at 25 million or so when you cut down on everything that isn't necessary and have the military take over a lot of the work.

If you want to see what thay looks like, you can look at the Wuhan lockdowns and to a lesser extent various strict lockdowns in third world countries.

Re: India’s second wave

#445

Post by sudosysgen »

ticviking wrote: post #327
sudosysgen wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is really not the case. You buy food from farmers, who can keep money, and you use existing government capacity to distribute it. It's been done before and can be done still.

But then the laborers who process the food have to go to work. And often work in close quarters in factories where it's easy to spread the virus.

A lot of food processing isn't strictly necessary. People can be expected to cook or live off existing stock for 2-3 weeks if they do not work.

Re: India’s second wave

#446

Post by mikem170 »

fogihujy wrote: post #422
sangnoir wrote: post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That works out to 1 out of 570 people that have died of covid. Mostly older and less healthy folks. Your assumption is that what the USA went through, with the shutdowns is the worst-case scenario. I posit that it is not - things could have been far worse in terms of death, as well as second- and third-order effects on the economy, jobs and food security.

Worst case would be healthcare systems collapsing, and a majority of essential workers falling ill, dying, or simply refusing to go work. It would possibly cause severe supply chain disruptions, which in its turn could result in local food shortages, civil unrest and so on. If such a situation would be allowed to spiral out of control, it could very well result in a systemic collapse, especially on a local or regiona…

I'm glad you agree that covid-19 is not a threat to our species!

Why did you bring up systemic collapse? You made some pretty broad statements. Things like food shortages and civil unrest happen all the time, for lots of reasons. There's Syria, Somalia, the former Soviet Union, the Arab Spring, everywhere a war is fought, etc. It wouldn't be surprising for this pandemic (and/or lockdowns) to tip some country over the edge, somewhere. But maybe not. Hasn't happened yet.

I think it's curious that you had to throw a new worst-case scenario out there. I hear you saying "ok, the species will survive, but we could, worst case, collapse, horrible, for centuries". What are you thinking? Do you think something like that might happen in a developed country? Or in India? Wouldn't hospitals just triage patients, letting the old and sick die? Aren't most health care workers already vaccinated? Is it reasonable to think that a disease that has killed less than 0.175% of the population (USA, 1 in 570), mostly older and/or sicker, could possibly cause the collapse of important supplies or cause food shortages?

Do you ever wonder why some people seem to have a tendency to dwell on worst case scenarios, even ones that are pretty marginal? I assume that it's because we are emotional creatures, and fear is a powerful emotion. Probably good for the survival of the species :-)

Re: India’s second wave

#447

Post by thebruce87m »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #336
collyw wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still a small fraction of what Europe has experienced. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

And Belgium counted every possible related death as covid related. Overreporting 100%

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

Looks like we are now over-counting instead of undercounting as we were a few months ago. Well, maybe, since things like car crashes and suicides are down in most places so excess would be negative with lockdowns but without COVID.

Re: India’s second wave

#448

Post by anaganisk »

windex wrote: post #404

The Indian Government had one job. Prepare for this crisis. They had one year to prepare for it. They did nothing apart from grandstanding,claiming credit for vaccines, and suggesting home remedies and cow urine (not joking) while telling each other that Indians are immune to this virus. These naratives played out across whatsapp groups and yoga guru channels. The health minister even endorsed some of these remedies…

So true, the PM still doesn't have the decency to take questions even now. He has not given a single press conference since 7 years. He is just a press conference shy version of Donald Trump. All he can do is claim credit and vanish without completing even a single thing.

Re: India’s second wave

#449

Post by canadianfella »

windex wrote: post #404

The Indian Government had one job. Prepare for this crisis. They had one year to prepare for it. They did nothing apart from grandstanding,claiming credit for vaccines, and suggesting home remedies and cow urine (not joking) while telling each other that Indians are immune to this virus. These naratives played out across whatsapp groups and yoga guru channels. The health minister even endorsed some of these remedies…

Religious and spiritual bullshit killing people is nothing new and completely expected.

Re: India’s second wave

#450

Post by ticviking »

sudosysgen wrote: post #445
ticviking wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then the laborers who process the food have to go to work. And often work in close quarters in factories where it's easy to spread the virus.

A lot of food processing isn't strictly necessary. People can be expected to cook or live off existing stock for 2-3 weeks if they do not work.

Spend some time volunteering with local emergency preparedness teams and you'll get a better sense of just how much of the US food system is essential "just in time"

The more urban a place the more "just in time" everything is because the space is more valuable doing literally anything other than warehousing calories

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