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WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

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Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#441

Post by dnautics »

trixie_ wrote: post #426
dnautics wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The percentage would be lower, average savings higher. Because people's wages would have eroded less, and money not keeping it's value is incentive to live a consumptive lifestyle.... Bitcoiners hodl, for example, in spite of crashes and even with the risk it all goes to zero tomorrow.

Are you sure people would have saved the money versus buying a better car, house, electronics, etc.. Are you sure inflation is the reason people live a 'consumptive lifestyle'? I'd argue it is 'cheap' access to debt - student loans, housing loans, credit cards, etc.. that has prevented people from saving. Historically though the savings rate to today isn't much different than 60 years ago - around 10% in 1960 down to…

Cheap access to debt is inflation. You are violently agreeing with me.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#442

Post by webmaven »

topspin wrote: post #52
lokar wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That theory would explain financial gains going up faster (eg the pie getting bigger, more return to capital), but not a stall in wages for workers. Worker productivity went up, but wages for workers did not. ~1970 is about when the % of workers in unions really started to fall in the US.

~1970 was the beginning of the rapid growth of commercial intermodal containerization. A couple of WTO charts in this[1] document show the trend. The US military pioneered standardized containers (for shipping supplies to S. Vietnam) in the late 1960's and the commercial world caught on very quickly. Since then the captains of industry in the West have been able to arbitrage labor world wide. Thus labor unions in dev…

> ~1970 was the beginning of the rapid growth of commercial intermodal containerization. A couple of WTO charts in this[1] document show the trend. The US military pioneered standardized containers (for shipping supplies to S. Vietnam) in the late 1960's and the commercial world caught on very quickly.

I have a feeling that use of expanded polystyrene foam (colloquially styrofoam, which is actually a brand name for a different material), as a packing material had a great deal to do with the trend as well. Loose foam packing peanuts were patented in 1965, I'm not sure when foam cushioning blocks were introduced.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#443

Post by jokethrowaway »

allemagne wrote: post #264
erikpukinskis wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point I kind of wish a supermajority was required for every vote. Then neither party could control legislating over the objections of the other. This trading back and forth every so often thing doesn’t seem to be working great.

I'm surprised that you think that too much legislating is the problem. No legislation can even happen without bipartisan support unless one party has control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, AND the Presidency. Oh, and unless there's a supermajority in the Senate, the minority party can filibuster most legislation anyway. Sounds like a great way to ensure that compromise has to happen, except that the par…

That's also how the markets see it: gridlocked governments which can't do further damage are a positive sign

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#444

Post by bpt3 »

jraedisch wrote: post #440
bpt3 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin advocates focus on the limited supply when comparing to the USD, and forget that bitcoin also has very limited utility as a currency. I don't want to transact in something so volatile, nor something with such high transaction cost or latency.

Bitcoin is being actively developed. Maybe you would have good ideas on how to improve the things you critizise if you allowed yourself to think about them.

Thanks for the ad hominem attack, it's validation for the fundamental issues I raised.

Bitcoin is a massive waste of the natural resources used to create and maintain the blockchain entries, nothing more, and probably won't ever be anything else. A properly designed cryptocurrency could be useful, but it won't look anything like bitcoin.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#445

Post by ncmncm »

Looks like nobody here has read the Powell Memorandum.

They have stuck to that script ever since it csme out, and it has worked. People are easily persuaded by modern methods to vote against their own interests.

Almost half the voters chose "even more of that"!

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#446

Post by lumost »

yellowapple wrote: post #396
lutorm wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the fact that we don't use railguns to launch things into space is because of energy cost. It's just not technologically feasible.

From what I understand, the main technological blocker (as opposed to various political and economic blockers) is the need for superconductors to achieve reasonable energy efficiency. With cheap energy, that's less of a pressing need (and further, cheap energy = more energy to throw at cryogenic cooling systems to induce superconductivity in less-exotic materials).

Superconductors are also used for thermal reasons. Generating strong magnetic fields through high current in a resistive material will put out a lot of heat.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#447

Post by Izkata »

pjc50 wrote: post #60
bryanlarsen wrote: post #25

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

The thing is, there was a lot going on in the 1968-1971 period. Everything from civil rights to the moon landings. The collapse of Bretton Woods is important, but we have to ask why and what pressures led to that point.

> The thing is, there was a lot going on in the 1968-1971 period.

...which is pretty much what the charts show if you scroll through all of them instead of focusing in on the first ~1/3.

Of the 50+ on the page, 4 have to do with the price of gold. The latter half of the page is entirely alternate possibilities.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#448

Post by Izkata »

dgb23 wrote: post #104
bryanlarsen wrote: post #25

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

The graphs show two things: A relative increase of income for the wealthiest and a relative decrease for everyone else, specifically in the US. The 70s and 80s mark a political shift to privatization of public service/infrastructure and deregulation of and trade-agreements for the investor market.

> and a relative decrease for everyone else, specifically in the US.

Actually it doesn't. The relative decrease seems to only have affected men: https://wtfhappenedin1971home.files.wordpress.com/2020/06/me...

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#449

Post by yellowapple »

lumost wrote: post #446
yellowapple wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand, the main technological blocker (as opposed to various political and economic blockers) is the need for superconductors to achieve reasonable energy efficiency. With cheap energy, that's less of a pressing need (and further, cheap energy = more energy to throw at cryogenic cooling systems to induce superconductivity in less-exotic materials).

Superconductors are also used for thermal reasons. Generating strong magnetic fields through high current in a resistive material will put out a lot of heat.

Cheap energy = more energy to throw at cooling systems, per above.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#450

Post by FrozenVoid »

throwaway-8c93 wrote: post #341
bryanlarsen wrote: post #25

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

The linked article obviously has a gold-bug agenda. That's why I think it's important to bring one more argument in favor of the root cause being some physical constraint, rather than legal or organizational: At around the same time, the growth of GDP and standard of living dramatically slowed down in the Soviet Union, too. From venerable ~5% per year in 50s and 60s, to ~2% in 70s, to ~1.25% in 80s. Different legal,…

Earth reached its carrying capacity in the late 1960's

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

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