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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

probablydance.com

441–450 of 467 posts

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read the fact check. The too far away claim was decided days ago, and people were allowed to be within 6'. There were also live webcams setup. This has literally been one of the most transparent elections in history. Read through the lawsuits [1]. Most have already been rejected due to no proof. The others outstanding have to do with so few votes it doesn't matter or they actually go against Trump's interests, like s…

If one of the new cases filed this week makes it to SCOTUS will you admit you were wrong?

I think I speak for all of us when I say that nobody is going to validate that weird Twitter thread you posted, no matter what happens at SCOTUS.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's actually not that wise a strategy. Think of it like tech debt. Working around a bug can be useful if there's genuine time pressure. If you're doing it because you don't think you can fix it, or worse, haven't convinced other people there's any bug at all, then it is inadvisable to keep doing that in the long run. There are good reasons why the rules for people are different to those for goods and capital. Howe…

Small nitpick : "people have fought and died for the rights to create borders (or a nation, as they saw it)" Well people have fought and died for many many stupid pointless things so it hardly constitutes an argument in favour of it. People have fought and died for conquering other's people land, to enforce the "true" religion, for money, for glory... "Are you sure all those people were that wrong that they sacrifice…

It's really not that abstract. Phrased another way, would you want the world to go back to a state where the sun never set on the British Empire? Most people wouldn't, including most Brits, even though it was a large free trade zone (the "Imperial Preference"). There are more borders now, but that's offset by the benefits of localism. The great empires were not famous for their love or respect of local cultures.

WW1 was a good example of where a lot of those countries came from. The empires of the day were very large, not many countries, and the people running the German/Austro/Hungarian/Ottoman empires thought that was great and maybe they should reduce the number of borders in the world a bit more. They were defeated and in the aftermath a lot of new countries sprang up, for instance, the modern concept of countries didn't really exist in North Africa/Arabia until the Ottoman Empire collapsed.

And the argument about people from other cultures not always mixing well isn't abstract. That is a lesson being learned in blood. The killer of Paty was an illegal immigrant, that's why Macron is suddenly pro-borders.

The point is, the modern left treats borders as some unspeakable evil, but never make any kind of intellectual argument against them, probably because the moment you do try to grapple with this issue intellectually and the history of where this system came from it becomes complex. Probably also because borders are an aspect of localism and the left historically is a globalist ideology. So instead they just attack the infrastructure and skip the whole thought process entirely. It's anti-intellectual.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actual MPs disagree with you about that: https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/there-is-wides... "I believe the overwhelming majority of my constituents would be shocked if they knew the extent of corrupt election practices and voter fraud which happen each time there is an election. I want open and lawful elections, upholding the principle that every entitled voter should have one vote, and cast it freely."…

> There's a risk that in future the UK may face a similar outcome as the USA. What outcome is that exactly? Are you alleging that there has been widespread electoral fraud in the USA? Because if that is what you're suggesting you need to drop the euphemisms and point to the hard evidence. I am aware of precisely zero solid evidence of material levels of fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and zero evidence that…

The outcome is "an election in which a large number of people don't believe it was a fair contest".

What matters is people's belief that the process has integrity. By its very nature, most vote fraud is hard to prove as due to the privacy protections in the system, it will boil down to people saying "I saw fraud happening with my eyes". And there are people in the US making that exact allegation right now under oath. I take no position on whether they're correct or not, merely observing that polls show the number of people who don't believe the election was run properly is dramatically higher now than it was before election day (amongst Republicans, Dems of course love it and are sure there's no fraud at all).

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actual MPs disagree with you about that: https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/there-is-wides... "I believe the overwhelming majority of my constituents would be shocked if they knew the extent of corrupt election practices and voter fraud which happen each time there is an election. I want open and lawful elections, upholding the principle that every entitled voter should have one vote, and cast it freely."…

“We have received reports” is the same BS the Trump folks are trying to pull with their “voter fraud hotline” today. You’ve posted an op-ed that offers no actual evidence.

The article says that in one case they can evidence it, but an individual MP isn't a police force. At any rate, the reasons behind the design of elections is to pre-emptively block fraud because proving it retroactively is hard. Hence the private ballot box, polling stations, the reluctance to use computerised/internet based voting and so on. People have to believe the system is inherently robust. Why, because what sort of hard evidence could be generated for those sorts of problems, and at what scale? People registering with their friends/family addresses so they can tip votes outside where they live is inherently hard to obtain large-scale evidence of.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the type of problem that usually happens with postal voting. Intercepting votes like that on a large scale would be indeed hard. But what people do get caught doing quite regularly and not just in the USA are things like: 1. Going door to door and giving people blank ballots, pressuring people to fill them in, right in front of them. As a 'helpful service'. 2. Dominant members of the families taking the ba…

> Trump in particular shouldn't be under suspicion here because he has been strongly encouraging his supporters to vote in person, where fraud is much harder to pull off: That...doesn't follow. If I was planning massive mail-in voter fraud/sabotage/suppression, I'd probably be overly sensitive to the possibility that my opponent would also do what they could in that direction (or, in the case of unfocussed sabotage e…

Isn't that a "if she floats she's a witch" type argument?

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#446
post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, this approach would require a strong protection against deanonymization of votes, which could allow attackers to guess who voted for each candidate, for instance according to voting time and location.

Attackers don’t need to guess. They can equally strongarm the information. Under any “blockchain” based voting system, what is preventing your boss from saying “Sit down in this chair and log into the system and let me see who you voted for”? The answer is: Nothing prevents that. So long as you allow checking who you voted for afterwards, you allow the participants to verifiably disclose their votes. This is precisel…

Great point, didn't think about that. A verification without disclosure mechanism would be required then, not sure if that is feasible though.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If one of the new cases filed this week makes it to SCOTUS will you admit you were wrong?

I think I speak for all of us when I say that nobody is going to validate that weird Twitter thread you posted, no matter what happens at SCOTUS.

Of course not, I’ve already said so. Are you being willfully ignorant?

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#448
post #432
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This "Chicago political machine" was later shown to have committed voter fraud in 1982. 26 people were convicted[1], and here's the grand jury report[2]. They had been getting away with it, until they didn't. Fortunately, as media reassure us, today voting fraud simply cannot happen: you'd need a whole conspiracy of dozens of people, a real, as one could call it, machine. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Illi…

Of note: - Despite the scope of this fraud, it didn't alter the election outcome. - The bi-partisan checks and balances failed because the Republican party had insufficient strength in the areas of Chicago where the fraud occurred. - They got caught. - This was 40 years ago. It was novel for the FBI to use computers at the time to detect irregularities. In the states that Trump is currently contesting, the GOP contro…

> Despite the scope of this fraud, it didn't alter the election outcome.

Every time an AMERICAN says this, a bald eagle looses its wings.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#449
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one likes to hear these, but some simple ones to try: 1. Central database of all citizens. (Can be state-level if you want to do that). 2. Require voter-ID to link against 1 above. 3. Tick off people on the database as they've voted so they can't vote twice. And just like that, most (but not all) of the "mail in ballot" concerns are rendered mute and we can all continue with trusting the election results.

> Central database of all citizens. That's like saying a shotgun can cure cancer. The tradeoffs required are so laughably bad your solution is not worth considering.

What tradeoffs? That you're on some government list?

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal government absolutely has more power than was intended. The constitution only allows the federal government to do very specific things. This includes the power to coin money, to regulate commerce, to declare war, to raise and maintain armed forces, and to establish a Post Office. Everything else is left to the states. How many powers does the federal government have that are above those enumerated powers?…

99% of the Democrats and 98% of the republicans including present leadership disagree with your assessment. If your position weakens any further it wont even have one seat in congress. In a democracy a position that virtually nobody cares for is dead.

Trusting the people to hold the government to the Constitution may have been the fatal flaw. I know that being a Constitutional idealist is a weak position. I feel that is very unfortunate. The Constitution was intended to protect against human natures of avarice and corruption and limit to paths to tyrannical government. Every time the Constitution is weakened the paths to corruption and tyranny are widened.
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