Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

Post by e15ctr0n » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:14 PM UTC

greedo wrote: post #323

The long term scars of this upcoming Depression will be unlike anything anyone under 70 has experienced. And the scars will be long lasting. My mother in law used to use Cool Whip containers for leftovers. When we'd visit, she'd send us home with food packed in them. Usually stuff like mashed potatoes, but often good stuff too. And when we'd visit her in a few weeks/month, she'd ask where her containers were. This wa…

Post by amiga_500 » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

doh wrote: post #415

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

This is just a personal opinion, but I think ~15% unemployment peak is far too optimistic. I believe that 50-75% of restaurants will never reopen. 20-35% of small to mid-size hotels, venues, spas will declare bankruptcy within this year. Both employ a lot of people. So I'm afraid the number is going to much higher, maybe even double.

Post by varjag » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:17 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #135

lukevp wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you feel is stupid about the response to this? 1% is a lot of people. The whole point of social distancing and staying at home is to not overwhelm the healthcare system and to give more time to develop proper care procedures.

Playing devil's advocate for a moment, 1% would be approximately the same number of deaths we get in a typical year. Slightly more, yes, but some number of the COVID deaths are probably people that had a high likelihood of dying this year anyway, so it seems like an okay estimate. In that case we are doubling our deaths for a year. Very significant, but in the grand scheme of things it poses no real danger to the spe…

Post by kube-system » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:18 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #380

kube-system wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most obvious and direct way to help people is to send them cash payments. The IRS is already set up to be capable of doing this, and to do so at the scale required. Paying hospital bills would be exponentially more complex of an operation, and there isn't an organization already set up to administer something like that at this scale.

> ...to help people Sure, but I was talking about helping the infected people. Yeah, it's more complex, but if it was a priority, it could be arranged. It's not like it has to be done quickly. Bills can be settled months later. My cynical explanation is that Covid infected do not have a lobbyist at the table when these things are decided.

Post by doh » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:20 PM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #443

doh wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just a personal opinion, but I think ~15% unemployment peak is far too optimistic. I believe that 50-75% of restaurants will never reopen. 20-35% of small to mid-size hotels, venues, spas will declare bankruptcy within this year. Both employ a lot of people. So I'm afraid the number is going to much higher, maybe even double.

What happens to all this commercial rental space? Rents are going to drop through the floor, and any business who signs up will have dramatically lower operating costs than in January.