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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#441

Post by throwaway5752 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #220
throwaway5752 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm a crazy for taking the state of the fed funds rate, the budget deficit, and the Fed's balance sheet into account? We can print money, but so far the USD hasn't reflected any sort of consequence for that. They can do a QE program, but will other actors accept the implicit loss on their treasury holdings? I can think of one major player there that is a lot less likely to do so now.

What consequence would you expect? Inflation? The Fed would probably welcome inflation right now. And, how does QE cause other players to lose their treasury holdings?

Treasury holdings are bonds denominated in USD. They are worth less relative to alternatives when the USD decreases versus those alternatives or yields rise (as you expect them to, in the event of inflation), just like any bond.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#442

Post by throw0101a »

nwalker85 wrote: post #317
tempguy9999 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Trump has created 515 businesses and only 11 of them failed. That's a 98.64% success rate. He has a better track record than Elon Musk by an order of magnitude.

By "businesses" do you perhaps mean "shell corporations"? :)

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#443

Post by novaRom »

jsnider3 wrote: post #406
dageshi wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't anything like the housing bubble right now. There's nothing that really allows people who shouldn't be able to borrow lots of money to borrow lots of money like housing did last time. What you're describing is just the normal stuff that happens in all recessions. And as much as we had a long boom, we also had quite a long painful recovery from 2008, it wasn't the same as normal recovery which explains why…

> There isn't anything like the housing bubble right now. What do you think about the carbon bubble?

How is it a bubble?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#444

Post by specialist »

refurb wrote: post #319
mwfunk wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WRT making billions of dollars, clearly he didn't. WRT getting elected, he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC. WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. By completely obvious I mean, the-sky-is-blue, 1+1=2 obvious. That's how obvious…

You might want to consider the idea that people who disagree with you politically might in fact not be dumb, but just have views that differ from yours. Just a thought.

I now doubt IQ, values, beliefs are even a factor.

A relation of mine went from studying marine biology to full on fundie. Creationism, climate denial, etc. Huge Trump supporter too, of course.

Can any one explain to me how a one time scientist now doubts evolution?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#445

Post by vinay427 »

dragontamer wrote: post #389
ben_jones wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the rational definition of Deep State is just the government “lifers” who stay in significant spheres of influence for most of their career. I.e. key defense, intelligence, financial, etc positions.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

The "real" N-word is also similar to or identical to today's equivalents in Germanic languages (e.g. German, Dutch).

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#447

Post by tunesmith »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #393
tunesmith wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Philosophical question - why is that important to know? What added value is discovered by realizing your opponent's conclusion is not based off of bad facts or faulty reasoning, but different values?

Practical answer - how you engage is radically different. My math prof likened it to the axiomatic frameworks: if a person has bad facts or faulty reasoning, but your core axioms (values) are similar, you are more likely to come to a point of mutual agreement or at least understanding. If your values (axioms) are radically different, chances are your entire frameworks are different and possibly incompatible. You'll b…

Thanks. I'm also toying with the idea that it means that realizing it's about values could possibly engender greater respect for the other's conclusions. Because at least then the person isn't "wrong".

Although maybe that's only true if you find their values tolerable. Otherwise I suppose the advantage is in knowing you'll have to start strategizing if the conclusions from their values are incompatible with yours.

Either way it does seem valuable to know the other person's complete reasoning, just trying to quantify as many reasons why as possible.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#448

Post by bla3 »

chillacy wrote: post #273
sxcurry wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As Paul Krugman says, "What looks like raw ignorance and prejudice is, in fact, raw ignorance and prejudice".

Paul Krugman also said the internet was a fad, why is he worth quoting?

Because his batting average, while not perfect, is still pretty good.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#449

Post by throwaway2048 »

scarejunba wrote: post #416
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

I imagine that what they meant to refer to is what we remember as "the bureaucracy" (the system of career policy-makers), but that term now has the connotations of inefficiency etc.

And "deep state" brings out the lunatics.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#450

Post by jjwhitaker »

8ytecoder wrote: post #276
strenholme wrote: post #221

I remember the dot-com crash of 2001 and seeing companies close so fast, they didn’t their employees a final paychecks; I remember one day, after the dot-com collapse a position I was qualified for got filled within three hours. As someone who has seen this before, things are looking ominous: The stock market drop of late 2018 reminded me of the stock market drop we had in 2000, about a year before everything fell ap…

First of all predicting a crash is a fool’s errand. It as much about emotions as it is about fundamentals. There’s a perfectly valid explanation for the valuation of Startups and the availability of capital for startups in the last 9 or so years. After 2008 crash, markets were stagnant until 2012. At the same time capital was being eased by govts worldwide. This capital has to flow somewhere. Tech startups were ripe…

The bond yield curve inversion mentioned in the article has led every recession in the last 70 years by 12-24 months. It's an indicator, because we don't know the future, but it's historically accurate to a T. On some level it is self fulfilling but the evidence of past crashes is there too.

Auto loan defaults are at a high, as is student and household debt (higher than 2007). Those auto loans are often bundled almost exactly like junk mortgages in 2007 leading to a similar investment risk. More americans live paycheck to paycheck than ever before possibly increasing the number needing support should unemployment jump back up to 12%, where it was when Obama took over in 2009. It won't be as bad but the federal government under Trump/GOP has cut taxes and drastically pumped up the deficit putting us in a worse position to weather a recession of any length. Cuts to social programs will also extend a recession or at least increase it's effects as people will still need food and affordable housing. The number on social security will increase while less will be employed to pay in and as SS was used as a piggy bank for GOP spending decades ago that system could go from failing in a few decades to gone.

It could be 6-12 months of job losses and stock market falls like the .com bubble but it could quickly complicate as the government may be slow or unable to respond in traditional ways due to lack of funding, lack of staffing (an existing issue in the current admin), lack of experience of the current staffing, and continued conservative/GOP attacks on social programs and minority groups most likely to be hit hard by any recession.

It's like Jenga. In 2007 a core lower block was pulled and a lot of pieces went with it but we had the leverage federally to hold some in place or put back others like auto manufacturers. This time, the piece may be much higher up but automakers are already suffering under tariffs and the federal government won't have the funding capacity or push by the GOP led government to react in time and, like midwest farmers, that could be the end of an era for some industries.

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