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Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

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Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#441
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that; PV is cheap compared to storage, so it makes more sense to install twice as much PV as needed and include the charging plugs in existing car parks (and waste some power during commuting and lunch breaks), than to add enough immobile storage to allow most car charging to happen at night.

The thing about nighttime is that thats when the car isn't moving around much. Best time to charge.

Only when the power doesn’t come from PV. If it does, you need (three?) times as much battery capacity: the car’s battery, the immobile battery that the car charges from, and the battery which powers your houses (and some industry and commerce) overnight. If you charge your cars during the day, you can use some of the battery capacity in the electric cars, partially discharging some of them overnight to supply your nighttime needs.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#442
post #233

I won't buy another car that isn't an electric car. Even if I have to wait years. I am so sick of the idiocy that is current gas cars. The complexity is insane. You guys whine so much about repairability in tech gadgets and shit, but cars? ho. lee. shit. Modern cars are insane. Well, modern gas cars. I am never spending another $2000 on "labor" to change a gasket. Power sources, being electric are cool, and I definit…

I am completely with you, but would like to mention that batteries are also produced somewhere and the process and required resources are anything but environmentally friendly.

This is not to say that EVs are a gigantic improvement. Returning to them will improve many things.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#443
post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about nighttime is that thats when the car isn't moving around much. Best time to charge.

Only when the power doesn’t come from PV. If it does, you need (three?) times as much battery capacity: the car’s battery, the immobile battery that the car charges from, and the battery which powers your houses (and some industry and commerce) overnight. If you charge your cars during the day, you can use some of the battery capacity in the electric cars, partially discharging some of them overnight to supply your n…

Yeah I see what you mean. Maybe everyone will need to commute nocturnally once we're running everything on solar!

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#444
post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try telling someone you didn't bring your phone. Most people actually tend to get a bit anxious at the idea.

Oh, I don't have one. People confront me often - "what will you do in an emergency?!"

I always laugh at this idea. I’ve never actually met someone who used their phone in an emergency, only in an “emergency”.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of Norway is much warmer than you'd think. The Gulf Stream hits Norway head on, making it much warmer than similar latitudes on the other side of the Atlantic. In Oslo, temperatures very rarely go below -10C.

> In Oslo, temperatures very rarely go below -10C. ... warmer than you'd think I was spotting Teslas in Oslo in mid 2018, and it was +28C. But seriously, -10C on a winter night is what I expected, and is cold enough to seriously affect camera batteries.

-10C is something that is still manageable. The current crop of electric cars start to have real problems below -30C.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#446
post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was probably too imprecise. I meant new infrastructure. I just want to point out where the analogy breaks down.

Point taken but since they rolled out around the same time, they did re-enforce each other. More pictures lead to more demand for internet, lead to internet being faster and more widely available, which lead to more pictures. Digital photographs were not the only driver of the internet's rollout, but I'm sure that they contributed.

Yes, then the question remains when an analogy loses its value. In this case I‘d say it’s a big stretch. I’m all for electric vehicles, I just don’t buy the analogy

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#447
post #340
post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

"I live in an apartment, I can't charge one on the street." The electric car revolution is going to come at the same time as the self-driving revolution. That will change the calculus of parking significantly. No longer does your car need to be parked right next to your building to be convenient: it can be anywhere a short drive away and summoned at the touch of a button. So charging infrastructure doesn't have to be…

You arguably don't even need full self-driving for that.

A special "autonomous park/return mode", say, capped to 10kph, only following a single preprogrammed route, with a complete lead foot on the brake. Nobody would want to ride in an everyday self-drive that had those restrictions, but it's perfectly acceptable for an empty trip to a central parking structure.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You won't like this idea but in Japan you're required to show you have a place to park your car before you're allowed to buy one. If there was a market for parking spaces with power it seems like they'd start showing up pretty quickly.

I love this idea. With one problem. It doesn’t capture the externalities of living in the sub/ex urbs correctly. Precisely where it’s hard to park is where people are living most environmentally friendly (density). Paired with a dramatic energy tax I’m good with it.

It captures the spatial externalities, as opposed to the US system of minimum parking requirements and on-street parking, which sets aside valuable urban space that could be used for more housing (or stores or whatever) and wastes considerable amounts of capital (underground garages are very expensive) on making it easier to drive and not actually produce the environmental benefits of living in a city.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're a lifelong buyer of used cars, the perception matches pretty closely. I've never bought a car for more than $4000 (and FWIW the used buys I've made have had a minimum reliable life of 5 years, and max repair costs before abandonment of another $4k). I don't know what the used EV market is like right now. I don't remember seeing any. Then again, EVs are relatively new and rarer than ICEVs so I wouldn't expec…

Any advice on models or tactics for buying a used car? I have been struggling to find something for nearly 2 months now. All I really need is inexpensive.

FWIW ~2 months has sometimes been time it's taken me to find the used car deals I was looking for. Once I've been immensely lucky and stumbled on an incredible deal quickly. More often it's in between.

I'm not an expert, but my tips: figure out your budget (mine is usually $2-4k). Then cast a broad net for cars that have less than 120k miles. Many cars made in the last 20 years have upwards of 150-200k in them. So starting here is going to give you potential for ~50k at the cost of a down payment. It can help if you have a few models in mind that you know tend to have particularly long lives or tend to be undervalued (my favorite for a while was the Geo Prizm, which is a rebadged and therefore discounted Corolla, I've also had two Oldsmobile Cutlass Cieras that went into the 200k range... but these were both discontinued 15-20 years ago and good ones are getting rare). Do your own filtering on the health of the car. I'm not even an amateur auto mechanic but I have a few heuristics: is the temperature stable over a range of driving conditions from idling to hill loads or freeway? What kind of oil leaks do I see? Also I like visible brake & gas pedal wear as a proxy for general vehicle wear. If a car doesn't have any obvious problems on these points, fits my cost/miles profile, and I like it, then I take it to a professional mechanic for a pre-purchase inspection and follow their advice. If the mechanic notes some needed non-powertrain repairs that fit inside the budget, I'll usually buy, perhaps after some negotiation.

There's a downside to this approach: it can be time-intensive. If you're well-compensated with your job (or you're doing a startup, or you're a new parent, or you have some other time-intensive thing going on in your life), your time may more valuable than the economizing this approach can yield. It goes faster if you let out the parameters a bit (bump up the budget and take down the mileage). In most sufficiently large cities there's probably a If you want more tips, Google Greg Macke, who seems to have some sensible advice about evaluating cars and has some recommended/lemon lists.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the list except the one about fuel costs. that might be true today, but price will probably have to rise too meet increased demand.

The opposite will actually happen. The rise of renewable energies will decrease energy cost dramatically. In some countries solar generation is already cheaper .

energy is highly regulated market, so I dunno, but in general, increased demand increases price, unless supply grows to meet demand (and there is a competitive market to drive down prices). So more EVs, more demand for electricity, and less demand for gasoline, so former might become more expensive, and the latter cheaper. what actually will happen is going to depend on long term investment decisions, changes in tech, and the specifics of industry regulation (which I'm mostly ignorant of)
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