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Tesla Semi

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Re: Tesla Semi

#441

Post by SigmundA »

drusepth wrote: post #409
SigmundA wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am trying to figure out how they get 2 year payback. "On a 100-mile route, the Tesla Semi will average $1.26 per mile when operating costs are factored in to $1.51 for diesel trucks." That 25 cents a mile savings, average trucker does 45,000 miles a year, 100,000 on the top end for long haul. Even at 100k a year that's an 8 year payback right?

Based on the "With fewer systems to maintain..." precursor to that factoid, I imagine they're also factoring in repairs and maintenance. In the reveal event, Musk said e.g. you'd never have to replace brake pads, a drive train, the windshield, etc. Also, I'm totally out of my element here (family does trucking but I don't) but 45K miles/year seems like a super low estimate for someone who drives full time. Taking a l…

I assumed their cost per mile included maintenance which is pretty standard to do.

To do 2 year payback would be 400k miles a year, which is impossible without nearly 24/7 driving, which could be possible with automation but unlikely they are figuring that.

Those truckers you linked are saying 10,000 a month is realistic without pushing it for long haul OTR so that 120k a year still at least 7 year payback.

Re: Tesla Semi

#442

Post by deadmetheny »

aerovistae wrote: post #192
nwmcsween wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then it's dead out of the gate, almost every trucking company in existence does in house repairs due to cost.

Call me a fanboy, but something tells me that the guy who built a revolutionary space program from scratch while successfully running a revolutionary auto company, probably has some ability to think things through pretty comprehensively from all angles and plan effectively for what's needed. Do you think you've just pointed out something that never occurred to him? Do you think if you could share your comments with h…

You're a fanboy. Being good in one industry doesn't mean you can plan for entire other industries and magically determine their domain knowledge or change the way that industry does its business.

I generally like what Musk is doing and think that Tesla is doing pretty great work, but he's not perfect and the pain points people are discussing in these threads are in no way unfounded. It's better to listen to the feedback and concerns in order to improve, rather than just fellating God-Engineer Musk and proclaiming his infallibility.

Re: Tesla Semi

#443

Post by SigmundA »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #432
SigmundA wrote: post #373

Anyone else find it odd they don't talk about the battery? 500 miles of range at 2kwh a mile is a 1000kwh battery which is 10 model S batteries. Model S battery weighs 1,200 lbs lets assume they somehow improved on that by 20-30% so this is a 10,000 lb battery. Not sure how much the motors weigh, the Tesla motor and inverter are about 350lbs so lets say another 1000lbs. A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500…

If you take the Model S and scale it up then people have said the battery is half the cost of the car, and therefore the battery alone is roughly the cost of a normal car. I don't think it would be suprising if the same is true for the semi. There's at least one rural delivery man who bought a Tesla Model S and paid for it by using the mileage payments he gets for his job. So as long as your route fits, the same kind…

Urban buses are very different and a more obvious target. Stop and go slower avg speed regular short routes with a home base to charge.

Much smaller batteries and taking advantage of regenerative braking.

It is an obvious use case for batteries right now.

Re: Tesla Semi

#444

Post by alistairSH »

jackmott wrote: post #434
SigmundA wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At 7 lbs a gallon for diesel most semis can carry 200 gallons so add an extra 1000lbs if you like, the Tesla still has to make up 5000 lbs while having 1/3rd the range. Timing stops for megachargers will be a whole lot more difficult than truck stops until they are as ubiquitous. If you have to use a plain old supercharger your talking 8-10 hours for a charge, don't even bother with a normal plug of any kind.

It would be a slow rollout anyway. First customers would be people with ~200 mile routes, just charge at home base. Then people with ~500 mile routes that can charge at both ends. grow from there.

It looks like the first big buyer is using them for those short-haul trips.

Does the Semi have a sleeper cab? If not, it won't be used on long-haul routes regardless of battery.

Re: Tesla Semi

#445

Post by throwahey »

SigmundA wrote: post #373

Anyone else find it odd they don't talk about the battery? 500 miles of range at 2kwh a mile is a 1000kwh battery which is 10 model S batteries. Model S battery weighs 1,200 lbs lets assume they somehow improved on that by 20-30% so this is a 10,000 lb battery. Not sure how much the motors weigh, the Tesla motor and inverter are about 350lbs so lets say another 1000lbs. A Diesel engine, transmission and fuel for 500…

Diesel trucks with sleepers are not cheap, brand new they cost upwards of $150,000. If Tesla's price point is $250-300k I think it would be fair.

Re: Tesla Semi

#446

Post by emptyfile »

andrepd wrote: post #347
tbabb wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Well, it's a fraction of the cost to operate, but if a tire blows, the mechanic will have to detach a piece of plastic. So I think we'll pass."

Why do you say it is a fraction of the cost to operate? Because the advert says so? I'll wait for concerns like the parent's to be weighed in before reaching any conclusion.

He's a software developer which makes his opinion on any topic worth a lot more than regular people, for example mechanics who fix trucks for a living. Is this your first day on HN?

Re: Tesla Semi

#447

Post by slouch »

flurdy wrote: post #421

:/ The centre driving location, not sure if that is a terrible idea for pedestrian and bicycle safety. Or the opposite as closer to the other side. Guess time will tell if a lot gets squashed against fences like bikers often do in London.

The driver is probably 8 feet closer to the front of the vehicle, though.

Re: Tesla Semi

#448

Post by kodis »

aerovistae wrote: post #192
nwmcsween wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then it's dead out of the gate, almost every trucking company in existence does in house repairs due to cost.

Call me a fanboy, but something tells me that the guy who built a revolutionary space program from scratch while successfully running a revolutionary auto company, probably has some ability to think things through pretty comprehensively from all angles and plan effectively for what's needed. Do you think you've just pointed out something that never occurred to him? Do you think if you could share your comments with h…

Additionally, these trucks come with a one million mile warranty. I don't know how many millions of miles a conventional truck is expected to last, but with a Tesla truck, the maintenance costs should be fairly low, at least the first million miles.

Re: Tesla Semi

#449

Post by sebleon »

SigmundA wrote: post #443
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you take the Model S and scale it up then people have said the battery is half the cost of the car, and therefore the battery alone is roughly the cost of a normal car. I don't think it would be suprising if the same is true for the semi. There's at least one rural delivery man who bought a Tesla Model S and paid for it by using the mileage payments he gets for his job. So as long as your route fits, the same kind…

Urban buses are very different and a more obvious target. Stop and go slower avg speed regular short routes with a home base to charge. Much smaller batteries and taking advantage of regenerative braking. It is an obvious use case for batteries right now.

How effective is regenerative breaking?

Re: Tesla Semi

#450

Post by Robotbeat »

SigmundA wrote: post #441
drusepth wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on the "With fewer systems to maintain..." precursor to that factoid, I imagine they're also factoring in repairs and maintenance. In the reveal event, Musk said e.g. you'd never have to replace brake pads, a drive train, the windshield, etc. Also, I'm totally out of my element here (family does trucking but I don't) but 45K miles/year seems like a super low estimate for someone who drives full time. Taking a l…

I assumed their cost per mile included maintenance which is pretty standard to do. To do 2 year payback would be 400k miles a year, which is impossible without nearly 24/7 driving, which could be possible with automation but unlikely they are figuring that. Those truckers you linked are saying 10,000 a month is realistic without pushing it for long haul OTR so that 120k a year still at least 7 year payback.

The TCO includes the cost of the lease, so it already includes payback of the upfront cost. If you're not leasing it, your cost per mile without considering upfront cost is much better than even the TCO calculation shows, so you can "payback" relatively quickly. If you lease it, you can take advantage of the lower cost of operations immediately.
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