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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#431

Post by trhway »

boc wrote: post #425
trhway wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't "believe". I'm arithmetically sure that it is going to happen, and it will beat the ground based on pretty much all metrics. Some of my comments with napkin numbers https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46882199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880486 Just a very rough primitive illustration - a land for a house in SV is like a $1M, and putting a 10 ton house…

It's pretty easy to de-orbit satellites or space-based stations. An SM-3 could smoke the ISS pretty easily, and they cost like 10M and we have thousands around the oceans.

>they cost like 10M ... thousands around the oceans.

Starlink numbers already in thousands (and cost much cheaper than 10M). And that is still using Falcon, not Starship. And a ground launched missile would be easily "cooked", once it exits the atmosphere, by a direct energy weapon - very easy in space.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#432

Post by whattheheckheck »

lemoncookiechip wrote: post #428

This makes no sense when you zoom-out. None of these companies, be it Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Google, Meta, Microsoft, are profitable in the AI department, they're all bleeding money and using funds their parent company and/or investors, primarily investors gave them. The Chinese models are keeping up with them, while offering the models for free and able to run on consumer grade hardware, and more importantly they t…

If the Chinese models couldn't Distill from the larger models they'd be at gpt2 or 3 levels

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#433

Post by strictnein »

input_sh wrote: post #149
rhubarbtree wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is trying to undermine the US economy through open source models. If they can down round or bankrupt the model companies, they take down the US. Currently the US is extremely vulnerable and dependent on China. AI is an important exception, so it’s key for China to destroy that

The US is undermining its own (and everyone else's) economy just fine, no imaginary assistance from China necessary. The role of the US was always to purchase cheap Chinese hardware, slap some modestly better software on top of it and the rest of the world happily would pay for that as a whole package. But with the US increasingly becoming isolationist, the rest of the world is starting to wonder why do we need the U…

> The role of the US was always to purchase cheap Chinese hardware, slap some modestly better software on top of it and the rest of the world happily would pay for that as a whole package

Curious where Intel, AMD, Nvidia, etc are in your "cheap Chinese hardware"?

And by "role", do you mean doing the majority of the R&D behind the modern hardware we all use?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#434

Post by koyote »

nba456_ wrote: post #95
nodja wrote: post #48

No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. What's the point of leading the race for 90% of it, if they're gonna slip on their own sweat and fall down by the end? In non metaphorical terms, what's the point of spending billions of dollars rushing to get the best AI tech at all costs, when the competition can distil your progress and catch up in 6-12 months while only spending 1% of what you spent. E…

> No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. When someone says their football team is winning in the first half, do you say, "Umm, no, they're leading, not winning!"

I have never ever heard a commentator say something like "Arsenal are currently winning with 2-0 against X". It is always leading: "Arsenal are currently leading with 2 goals against X".

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#435

Post by Andrex »

exe34 wrote: post #297
hx8 wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a war because the media says it's a war. The media says it's a war because AI companies are paying them to say it's a war [0]. When AGI comes the threat won't be from which primate turned it on, but from how well AGI is aligned with humanity. All of the war talk is to distract from the alignment problem and instead force investment in hardware infrastructure. [0] https://www.wired.com/story/super-pac-backed-b…

Before AGI can choose for itself, it will depend on its creators to decide what it values and how it behaves. We can see how that works whenever grok gets the answer factual.

Am I the only one seeing the very obvious parallels to child rearing here...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#436

Post by gilbetron »

trhway wrote: post #404
dgellow wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The discourse on this topic is at the point where I have no idea if people are serious or satirical. Please tell me you don’t seriously believe data centers in spaces is a realistic idea

I don't "believe". I'm arithmetically sure that it is going to happen, and it will beat the ground based on pretty much all metrics. Some of my comments with napkin numbers https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46882199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880486 Just a very rough primitive illustration - a land for a house in SV is like a $1M, and putting a 10 ton house…

Terrible math is terrible.

Better napkin math that is still being unrealistic compared to the true costs of space-based datacenters: https://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/comments/1quvbi4/sel...

Just contemplate what the radiator array and solar array needed a 1GW datacenter and all the cooling equipment and coolant, and imagine the harsh environment in space degrading it constantly.

The only point of the space-based datacenter idea is to pump the Spacex IPO

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#438

Post by lemoncookiechip »

whattheheckheck wrote: post #432
lemoncookiechip wrote: post #428

This makes no sense when you zoom-out. None of these companies, be it Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Google, Meta, Microsoft, are profitable in the AI department, they're all bleeding money and using funds their parent company and/or investors, primarily investors gave them. The Chinese models are keeping up with them, while offering the models for free and able to run on consumer grade hardware, and more importantly they t…

If the Chinese models couldn't Distill from the larger models they'd be at gpt2 or 3 levels

Even if that is true, it doesn't change the reality that they can compete. Also, if we start going that route, American models wouldn't have any quality data to train on if they respected copyright themselves. Their whole product was built on the work of others, on our work, our art.... without compensation, without acknowledgement.

Literally not a single one of these AI companies, regardless of where they are in the world has any right to complain about someone copying their work.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#439

Post by TacticalCoder »

LucidLynx wrote: post #192

The winner in the long term will be the one that will deliver the best performance and low-memory ratio for local models. Anthropic, OpenAI and Mistral are just companies that are making money right now (still not profitable), but will lost their tractions and values in the long term. However, I am more appealing to see how OpenCode Go subscriptions will go in the future: cheaper than big techs, more tokens, and they…

> Anthropic, OpenAI and Mistral ...

Mistral? I think their "revenues" is something like 1/150th what OpenAI and Anthropic are making.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#440

Post by ngruhn »

mghackerlady wrote: post #117
bluGill wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing. The US is likely to get involved in such a war and I would expect Europe to join in as well. Don't ask me what Trump is doing though.

China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

> but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

Sounds rational, but this decision is in a small number of hands. And those hands can change quickly. I also thought the US would never threaten to annex territory of a NATO member.

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