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OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

theguardian.com

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Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#431

Post by simoncion »

manmal wrote: post #413
warmwaffles wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> quickly text a colleague. This is still common and useful to gut check and make sure you aren't missing something. Source: wife is a doctor.

Does she think this really does the complexity of each case justice though? I doubt you can compress an anamnesis into a two-liner without losing essential data.

> Does she think this really does the complexity of each case justice though?

Do you believe that -prior to the 2020-ish mass evacuation of doctors from the profession- the typical specialist would misrepresent the facts of a case when asking for a cross-check?

Related: Have you ever worked as "the guys who actually work on the thing"-level tech support for a nontrivial Enterprise Software Product (or System)? If you have, did you never send a quick message to a knowledgeable coworker to double-check something that you were pretty sure was correct, but weren't 100% certain about?

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#432

Post by bmicraft »

kortilla wrote: post #349
fullstop wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, yes, but when was your last period? This even translates to the pediatric space. I took all of my kids to the pediatrician because either they don't make comments to me like they do to my wife, or I don't take shit from them. I'm not sure which. Here's an example: My wife and daughter were there and the doctor asked what kind of milk my daughter was drinking. She said "whole milk" and the doctor made a comment a…

Why would they suggest switching to a lower fat percentage milk?

My dumb answer would be that less fat means more sugar per kcal, so less satiety per kcal. No idea if that's correct.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#433

Post by Jiro »

kaikai wrote: post #184
thaumasiotes wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My daughter is in her 20s now and is still small -- it's just the way she is. When she goes to see her primary, do you know what their first question is? "When was your last period." Is that supposed to be a problem? How does it connect to the story in your comment? The question seems to be warranted to me, since being underweight can stop you from menstruating. So if you find someone thin and her last period was o…

I’m a normal weight, and get asked the same question. More importantly, I can tell them, “I have a regular cycle” and they WILL NOT take that as an answer. I HAVE to give them a date, and they will ask me to make one up if I can’t remember or want to decline giving them that information. Particularly given the alarming stories of people being prosecuted for having miscarriages, it feels ridiculous. If anything I hope…

The system doesn't know that you're a smart person who will only say "I have a regular cycle" when you've had something that could reasonably be called a regular cycle. A lot of patients are stupid, and requiring a quantitative answer eliminates one source of stupidity. Yeah, this particular doctor knows you're smart, but I hope you can see what disasters might result if the procedure said "the doctor may skip this step if the patient is smart".

It's the same reason why the doctor will take your temperature, instead of accepting your word that you took your own temperature and it is normal.

https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/primary-care-checkli...

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#434

Post by NiloCK »

contagiousflow wrote: post #417
jmpman wrote: post #6

Besides for myself and wife, I've also used LLMs to diagnose my dogs. Convinced there's a huge opportunity for AI based veterinary, especially one which then performs bidding across the local veterinary clinics to perform the care/surgeries. I've noticed that local vets vary in price by more than an order of magnitude. My 80 year old mother and mother inlaw have been regularly scammed by over charging vets, and with…

What makes you think that LLM vet companies wouldn't bend to the same forces of "over charging"

The general trend is that cost of entry in a lot of domains is collapsing.

Every sniffed out systematic service overcharge can be aggressively undercut by competition.

"Your margin is my opportunity", etc.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#435

Post by marcosdumay »

papyrus9244 wrote: post #384
ricardobayes wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's having a general understanding/view of the "baseline", aka healthy anatomy. This is something LLMs will never have, that's why never have true reasoning, for the lack of "worldview" and they never know if they are hallucinating. To aid doctors, we don't need LLMs but rather, computer vision, pattern recognition as you correctly point out. But it's important not to rely on it. Doctors can easily recognize and cor…

>It's having a general understanding/view of the "baseline", aka healthy anatomy. This is something LLMs will never have You're making the mistake of conflating AI with LLMs. I don't think LLMs will reliably be better than a board of doctors. But an Expert System probably will (if it isn't already). That's literally what they were created for. The biggest downside of LLMs IMO isn't the millions of Jules wasted on tra…

The article is about an LLM, the GGP explicitly cites LLMs. It's not the GP conflating them.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#436

Post by BigTTYGothGF »

kortilla wrote: post #348
tehjoker wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've witnessed a dismantle and replace effort by the right wing that wishes to squeeze everything to make rich people more money. An effort by the left would destroy the private insurance scheme and build up medicare. Completely different and you'd get something functional. When the wrong targets get destroyed, everyone suffers. When parasitic forces are destroyed, the system functions better. It's the difference b…

We already had an effort by the left. You can “no true scotsmen” if you want, but it represents the reality of what will happen when ideals clash a sector that makes up 18% of the GDP. What’s going to be different now than in 2010?

> We already had an effort by the left.

You mean the one based on Mitt Romney's approach?

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#437

Post by DrewADesign »

prplxd_nihilist wrote: post #322
SirHumphrey wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And with the code, the closer you come to the physical world the worse LLMs fair. Claude can’t really write Openscad and when I was debugging some map projections code last week it struggled a lot more than usual.

Until anthropic hire or steal code from acquired companies and train with it.

I think that might help a little, but is not a solution. When you’re figuring out some new way to combine code instructions to perform novel coding tasks, you’re just finding new configurations for existing patterns to get results you can easily test. The world outside of computers is infinitely more complex, random, and novel.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#438

Post by YetAnotherNick »

vlunkr wrote: post #282
YetAnotherNick wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assume if you know for certain that AI has better senstivity and specificity than your local physician for the particular diagnosis, which likely would be the case now or in few years. Would you purposefully get inferior consultation just because of Hippocatic oath?

This almost the plot of “minority report.”

I said better sensitivity and specificity. Not better accuracy.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#439

Post by burnte »

programmertote wrote: post #424

My spouse is an hematologist+oncologist. She and all of her coworkers use ChatGPT. Before then, they look stuff up on UpToDate [ https://www.uptodate.com/login ] (they sometimes still do). I went to medical school for three years and quit because I couldn't stand the rote memorization part of the studies. Too many facts to remember IMO. Even as an AI-neutral person, I'm very confident that AI/ML based computer system…

UpToDate is SUCH an awful company, pure rent taking. For site licenses, you just give them your sites' IP addresses and they program them into their firewall. No account management at all. INSANELY high prices. We replaced them with OpenEvidence.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#440

Post by pixel_popping »

bmicraft wrote: post #432
kortilla wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they suggest switching to a lower fat percentage milk?

My dumb answer would be that less fat means more sugar per kcal, so less satiety per kcal. No idea if that's correct.

Incorrect, not all products that reduce fat necessarily increases carb/sugar content.
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