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Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

anthropic.com

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find LLMs are good at essentially boilerplate code. It's clear what to do and it needs to be typed in. Or areas where I really have no idea where to start, because I'm not familiar with the codebase. I find anything else, I spend more time coaxing them into doing 85% of what I need that I'm better off doing it myself. So they're not useless but there's only so many times in a week that I need a function to pretty-p…

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Two use-cases recently where Claude sucked for me:

1. Performance-critical code to featurize byte slices for use in a ML model. Claude kept trying to take multiple passes over the slice when the featurization can obviously be done in one. After I finally got it to do the featurization in one pass it was double-counting some bytes but not others (double counting all of them would have been fine since the feature vector gets normalized). Overall it was just very frustrating because this should have been straight-forward and instead it was dogshit.

2. Performance-critical code that iterates over lines of text and possibly applies transformations, similar to sed. Claude kept trying to allocate new Strings inside of the hot-loop for lines that were not transformed. When I told it to use Cow instead so that the untransformed lines, which make up the majority of processed lines, would not need a new allocation, Claude completely fucked up the named lifetimes. Importantly, my CLAUDE.md already tells Claude to use copy-on-write types to reduce allocations whenever possible. The agent just ignored it, which is _the_ issue with LLMs: they're non-deterministic and any guidance you provide is ultimately just a suggestion.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you train a self-hosted/open source LLM on your existing software and documentation? That should make it far more useful. It's not claude code, but some of those models are 80% there. In 6 months they'll be today's claude code.

What would that help us with?

The LLM needs to understand your existing codebase if it's going to be useful building features that integrate with said codebase seamlessly without breaking things or assuming things that don't exist. That's not something you want to give away to a private AI company, so self-host an open source model.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because its failure rate is too high. Beyond boilerplate code and CRUD apps, if I let AI run freely on the projects I maintain, I spend more time fixing its changes than if I just did it myself. It hallucinates functionally, it designs itself into corners, it does not follow my instructions, it writes too much code for simple features. It’s fine at replacing what stack overflow did nearly a decade ago, but that isn’t…

That's my experience too. It's okay at a few things that save me some typing, but it isn't really going to do the hard work for me. I also still need to spend significant amounts of time figuring out what it did wrong and correcting it. And that's frustrating . I don't make those mistakes, and I really dislike being led down bad paths. If "code smells" are bad, then "AI" is a rotting corpse.

> If "code smells" are bad, then "AI" is a rotting corpse.

This is what's so frustrating about the hype bros for me. In most cases, everything AI spits out are code smells.

We're all just supposed to toss out every engineering principle we've learned all so the owner class can hire less developers and suppress wages?

I'm sure it's working great for everyone working on SaaS CRUD or web apps, but it's still not anywhere close to solving problems outside that sphere. Native? It's very hit and miss. It has very little design sense (because, why would it? It's a language model) so it chokes on SwiftUI, it also can't stop using deprecated stuff.

And that's not even that specialized. It still hallucinates cmdlets if you try to do anything with PowerShell, and has near zero knowledge about the industry I work in, a historically not tech-forward industry where things are still shared in handcrafted PDF reports emailed out to subscribers.

I'm going to leave this field entirely if the answer just becomes "just make everything in React/React Native because it's what the AI does best."

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I often wonder what I am missing. Recently I wanted to wrap a low level vendor API with a callback API (make a request struct and request id, submit, provide a callback fn, which gets called with request IDs and messages received from vendor) to async Python (await make_request(...)). Kinda straightforward - lots of careful code of registering and unregistering callbacks, some careful thread synchronisation (callback…

Just a guess, but to me it sounds like you're trying to do too much at once. When trying something like this:

> lots of careful code of registering and unregistering callbacks, some careful thread synchronisation (callbacks get called in another thread), thinking about sane exception handling in async code. Fiddly but not rocket science.

I'd expect CC to fail this when just given requirements. The way I use it is to explicitly tell it things like: "Make sure to do Y when callback X gets fired" and not "you have to be careful about thread synchronisation". "Do X, so that Exceptions are always thrown when Y happens" instead of "Make sure to implement sane Exception handling". I think you have to get a feeling for how explicit you have to get because it definitely can figure out some complexity by itself.

But honestly it's also requires a different way of thinking and working. It reminds me of my dad reminiscing that the skill of dictating isn't used at all anymore nowadays. Since computers, typing, or more specifically correcting what has been typed has become cheap. And the skill of being able to formulate a sentence "on the first try" is less valuable. I see some (inverse) parallel to working with AI vs writing the code yourself. When coding yourself you don't have to explicitly formulate everything you are doing. Even if you are writing code with great documentation, there's no way that it could contain all of the tacit knowledge you as the author have. At least that's how I feel working with it. I just got really started with Claude Code 2 months ago and for a greenfield project I am amazed how much I could get done. For existing, sometimes messy side projects it works a lot worse. But that's also because it's more difficult to describe explicitly what you want.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#435
post #347

I was at a big tech for last 10 years, quit my job last month - I feel 50x more productive outside than inside. Here is my take on AI's impact on productivity: First let's review what are LLMs objectively good at: 1. Writing boiler plate code 2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) 3. Learning new things: Summarizing knowledge, explaining concepts 4. Documentation, menial tasks At a big tech…

I agree with your categories. The majority of the usage for me is (1) and (3).

(1) LLMs are basically Stack Overflow on steroids. No need to go look up examples or read the documentation in most cases, spit out a mostly working starting point.

(3) Learning. Ramping up on an unfamiliar project by asking Antigravity questions is really useful.

I do think it makes devs faster, in that it takes less time to do these two things. But you're running into the 80% of the job that does not involve writing code, especially at a larger company.

In theory, this should allow a company to do more with fewer devs, but in reality it just means that these two activities become easier, and the 80% is still the bottleneck.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#436
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't use LLMs much Sorry to be so blunt, but it's not surprising that you aren't able to get much value from these tools, considering you don't use them much. Getting value from LLMs / agents is a skill like any other. If you don't practice it deliberately, you will likely be bad at it. It would be a mistake to confuse lack of personal skill for lack of tool capability. But I see people make this mistake all the…

Would be helpful if you pointed out what I did wrong :). If it's "you didn't explain the problem clearly enough", then that aligns with my original comment.

If you ask the chatbot for best practices it will tell you, including that you don't use a chatbot.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#437
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Work is freezing hiring and upping spending on tokens for everyone. Don't know if this is effective and I don't think management knows either, but it's what they're doing

> Work is freezing hiring and upping spending on tokens for everyone. Doesn't mean the two are related. Is AI just the excuse? We've got tariffs, war, uncertainty and other drama non stop.

>Is AI just the excuse?

When you're unemployed, it doesn't matter. When executives cargo cult, it doesn't matter.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Been a startup founder - work at Meta currently. AI is making everyone faster that I’ve seen. I’d say 30% of the tickets I’ve seen in the last month have been solved by just clicking the delegate to AI button

How did you decide to work at Meta? I'll be honest, just the idea of working there makes me feel like vomiting. For me, they are bizarrely evil. They're not evil like, "we're going to destroy our competition through anti competitive practices," (which they do), but "let's destroy a whole generation of minds." And now with the glasses. I mean, jeeze. Can there be a stronger signal of not caring for others? It's as if…

I've always attributed it to people being very good at convincing themselves they aren't one of the bad guys. A big paycheck makes it even easier to ignore to what you are a part of.

Where livelihood is concerned, rational individuals with strong morals can do irrational, and immoral things (e.g., work at the Palantir's of the world).

TLDR: incentives don't just shape perception, they form it

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#439
AI is coming for jobs—but the real risk isn’t where most people are looking.

The leading AI exposure indices (Anthropic, Eloundou et al.) focus on which jobs get automated. They treat low exposure as “safe.”

But the least exposed workers—cooks, roofers, dishwashers, construction laborers—are often in the worst jobs: low pay, high physical toll, short career spans, and little upward mobility. Safe from AI, but not from burnout or injury.

I built JQADI (Job Quality-Adjusted Displacement Index) to combine AI exposure with job quality. It surfaces three kinds of risk:

High AI exposure → classic displacement risk Low AI, low quality → “trapped” workers in grinding, unsustainable jobs Moderate AI, low quality → partial automation strips cognitive work and leaves physical drudgery (the “task residual” effect)

Findings: 83.5M workers are in low-AI, low-quality jobs. Customer service reps, data entry keyers, and medical records specialists sit at the intersection of high exposure and poor quality. Meanwhile, chief executives and lawyers are both low-exposure and high-quality.

The index uses ONET, BLS, and Anthropic exposure data. Code and methodology are open source. LINK https://github.com/quinndupont/JQADI

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Been a startup founder - work at Meta currently. AI is making everyone faster that I’ve seen. I’d say 30% of the tickets I’ve seen in the last month have been solved by just clicking the delegate to AI button

How did you decide to work at Meta? I'll be honest, just the idea of working there makes me feel like vomiting. For me, they are bizarrely evil. They're not evil like, "we're going to destroy our competition through anti competitive practices," (which they do), but "let's destroy a whole generation of minds." And now with the glasses. I mean, jeeze. Can there be a stronger signal of not caring for others? It's as if…

Guess who is running product and other related functions at OpenAI and Anthropic now
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