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Iran War Cost Tracker

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Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#431

Post by Jensson »

enaaem wrote: post #418
TemperaryT wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right that airpower alone will not change anything. But as you pointed out, putting troops on the ground does not automatically change the outcome either. If there is a lesson from the last few decades it is that the military is good at two things. Killing people and breaking their equipment. What it can do is create opportunities that political or covert efforts have to capitalize on. Any military campaign ne…

The issue is that no one is going to defect without protection. That is the reason you put troops there. Democracy building is nice, but that is not the real reason you sent troops.

Defection happens without protection if the regime gets weakened enough, and in addition to that USA is supplying weapons to Iranians so they can take up arms against the regime.

Iran has mandatory military training so if the people gets weapons they can fight for themselves.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#432

Post by enaaem »

Jensson wrote: post #431
enaaem wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that no one is going to defect without protection. That is the reason you put troops there. Democracy building is nice, but that is not the real reason you sent troops.

Defection happens without protection if the regime gets weakened enough, and in addition to that USA is supplying weapons to Iranians so they can take up arms against the regime. Iran has mandatory military training so if the people gets weapons they can fight for themselves.

Defection within the regime is never going to happen. If there is one thing that will unite a bunch of egos and put their personal grievances aside is a war. Anyone who smells like a traitor is shot. They become more fanatical, not less.

Only option is outside rebellion. But weapons and rebels are not created out of thin air. You need to sent weapons, trainers and troops. Syria 2.0 but worst.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#433

Post by [deleted] »

hereme888 wrote: post #200
danny_codes wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah that’s the likely outcome given our track record /s

Venezuela is undergoing tremendous freedom and hope. My fellow Venezuelans and I are super grateful for the well-planned, surgical mission of the US. They can have all the oil they want and help restore our industries in exchange for their financial benefit and partnership, which is the most recent track record.

[deleted]

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#434

Post by _zagj »

hereme888 wrote: post #203
nprz wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really believe killing 175 children[0] will bring peace and prosperity to the Iranian people? [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/01/world/middleeast/girls-sc...

That news piece was officially dismissed after investigation by the IDF and CENTCOM. I would bring to your awareness that you're using an emotional argument with no substance, and it discounts the decades of complex history in the region.

> CENTCOM

I haven't seen anything to that effect yet. They've just said they wouldn't deliberately target a school, which I believe, but that doesn't mean it wasn't an accident based on faulty, likely outdated intelligence.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#435

Post by [deleted] »

enaaem wrote: post #432
Jensson wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Defection happens without protection if the regime gets weakened enough, and in addition to that USA is supplying weapons to Iranians so they can take up arms against the regime. Iran has mandatory military training so if the people gets weapons they can fight for themselves.

Defection within the regime is never going to happen. If there is one thing that will unite a bunch of egos and put their personal grievances aside is a war. Anyone who smells like a traitor is shot. They become more fanatical, not less. Only option is outside rebellion. But weapons and rebels are not created out of thin air. You need to sent weapons, trainers and troops. Syria 2.0 but worst.

[deleted]

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#436

Post by Jensson »

enaaem wrote: post #432
Jensson wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Defection happens without protection if the regime gets weakened enough, and in addition to that USA is supplying weapons to Iranians so they can take up arms against the regime. Iran has mandatory military training so if the people gets weapons they can fight for themselves.

Defection within the regime is never going to happen. If there is one thing that will unite a bunch of egos and put their personal grievances aside is a war. Anyone who smells like a traitor is shot. They become more fanatical, not less. Only option is outside rebellion. But weapons and rebels are not created out of thin air. You need to sent weapons, trainers and troops. Syria 2.0 but worst.

> Syria 2.0 but worst.

A big difference here is that the Iranian leaders are being blown to bits every day currently, so its a bit different from Syria where the rebels barely had any support.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#437

Post by chmod775 »

flyinglizard wrote: post #255
chmod775 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> values align with those of the US Some values those are. Yikes.

More chances than not that you live in a country that benefitted from the American propensity to do the right thing, even at a huge cost to itself. Yes we have a different and more selfish America now, but all said, America still protects the world order that allows this conversation to exist.

Everyone is the hero in their own story - that's why nationalism can be so dangerous - yet seeing how it plays out in individuals is endlessly fascinating to me.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#438

Post by orwin »

Jensson wrote: post #416
orwin wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

300k? You mean 30k right? Iranian official numbers are 3.5k. the OSINT community say at least 15k in the 3 biggest cities (including peo-regime guardias of the revolution), and 'local' journalists (a lot with CIA ties though), not friend of the system say 30k. I wouldn't trust Iran with a butter knife, so I imagine between 15 and 30k, including 1 to 2k 'guardians'

> 300k? You mean 30k right? 30k was just the last protests, they talked about the entire regimes crimes which is much much more.

Let's count. Power consolidation (post-revolution): 10-20k. 100k during the first gulf war, but I think you should put that on the US (and maybe Irak, but it's the US that pushed Irak to attack Iran), then a bit more than 50 execution per year on average for 30 year. 100-300 in 2019/2020, and 15k-35k for the 2025/2026 protests. So even if you take the higher bound, that's 66k max, and if you count the gulf war (which was defensive, against US-led Iraki), 166k. But a reasonable estimate would not count the gulf war, and would be 35k over 40 year.

Weirdly, that's less than the number of saudi Arabia slaves who died in the last 20 years. But most of them are African, so they don't count, if I understand why Saudi Arabia are our allies.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#439

Post by hereme888 »

tradertef wrote: post #393
richardfeynman wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nzrf wrote: "Do you really believe killing 175 children[0] will bring peace and prosperity to the Iranian people?" The implication is that someone thought that it would. I am saying nobody in the US or Israel thought bombing a children's school would bring peace to the iranian people. In fact, both the USAF and IAF deny they hit a school. There is no evidence the IRGC has put forward to support its claim. Without suc…

Always gaslighting. Here is a list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attacks_on_health_facilities_d... And here is a detailed report: https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israeli-soldiers-tel-sultan-g...

Evidence is clear: the people of Iran do the Trump dance, alongside the Jews, and lay flowers by Israelis with tears of thankfulness.

Iranian civilians love the US and Israel for setting them free.

Stop believing terrorist propaganda.

Re: Iran War Cost Tracker

#440

Post by bjourne »

orwin wrote: post #438
Jensson wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 300k? You mean 30k right? 30k was just the last protests, they talked about the entire regimes crimes which is much much more.

Let's count. Power consolidation (post-revolution): 10-20k. 100k during the first gulf war, but I think you should put that on the US (and maybe Irak, but it's the US that pushed Irak to attack Iran), then a bit more than 50 execution per year on average for 30 year. 100-300 in 2019/2020, and 15k-35k for the 2025/2026 protests. So even if you take the higher bound, that's 66k max, and if you count the gulf war (which…

The 15-35k for protestors killed is a complete fabrication. No verifiable sources corroborate that figure. Media has a tendency to report figures based on nothing. Then those figures get established as the truth, which shifts the burden of proof. Thus, unless one can prove that 15-35k protestors wasn't killed the myth lives on.
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